Thursday, October 5, 2023

Much Cooler Weather on the Way, Some Rain Tonight and Tomorrow

(Forecast)

Friday (High 78, Low 63): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Saturday (High 65, Low 46): Sunny. Breezy and much cooler.

Sunday (High 66, Low 39): Sunny. Cool.

(Extended Outlook)

Columbus Day (High 72, Low 44): Sunny.

Tuesday (High 76, Low 48): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 77, Low 50): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 76, Low 53): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 78, Mínima 63): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvian muy dispersos.

Sábado (Máxima 65, Mínima 46): Soleado. Ventoso y mucho más fresco.

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 39): Soleado. Fresco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Día de la Raza (Máxima 72, Mínima 44): Soleado.

Martes (Máxima 76, Mínima 48): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 77, Mínima 50): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 76, Mínima 53): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is holding SKYWARN classes before we get into November, which sometimes is a secondary peak in our severe weather in this region. They are also having Open House on the 14th. They are down by the Shelby County Airport in Calera, no longer in the actual city of Birmingham, where they used to be years ago. The Nashville office is having Weather101 classes again. 

(Discussion)

Overall it was a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, though we did have some periods of clouds and some southerly winds, got a little breezy at times. The High in Cullman only got up to 77 degrees after a morning Low of 68. Jasper saw a High of 82 and Low of 59. They actually had some light rain in Haleyville today with a High of 79 and Low of 67. 



And we have a good bit of rain moving into the area, a little bit ahead of schedule. 





And those are ahead of a cold front that is going to bring us some much cooler air this weekend, but first brings us a little rain. 




Tomorrow we'll have scattered showers moving through associated with this. A lot of it will come in tonight. Estimating a High near 78 and Low near 63 because of rain-cooled air during day and overnight the extra moisture keeping us from cooling all that much. 



Then on Saturday, northwest flow aloft, high pressure moving in at the surface, and we will be breezy behind the front, North wind bringing us a major cooldown of Highs in mid-60's, Lows in mid-40's under sunny skies. First real taste of Fall weather. 


High pressure stays in place Sunday, and we'll see a really cool night, so starting the day Sunday near 40 degrees, a few spots could even see upper 30's, then warming back to the mid-60's for the afternoon High, sunny skies. 

For Columbus Day the High should rebound to about 70 or so, Low still in lower 40's, not rebounding as quickly as we will have very dry air in place allowing for radiational cooling at night. But then Tuesday the temperatures do start to rebound more, with a High in mid-to-upper-70's and a Low getting back up in the upper 40's or close to 50. Wednesday looks like High in upper 70's, Low near 50. By Thursday clouds should increase again, rain chances may hold off to just beyond this forecast period, next weekend, but it is a close call, reasonable to put a 20% rain chance in for Thursday maybe. High should be in mid-to-upper-70's and Low in lower 50's. 



Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda tonight into tomorrow, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect there. Then this weekend, it is expected to become post-tropical but still bring the potential for heavy rains and high winds to New England and Atlantic Canada. If I lived in Maine, I would especially take some reasonable precautions in advance of this, being mindful of a potential for isolated flash flooding and also of where your safe place is from high winds that could produce some damage. 


Even if we get any rain next Thursday, our rainfall totals between this round and that next round should average out to about 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch around here. 

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