Thursday, November 9, 2023

A Little Rain and a Cooldown on the Way, Then Mostly Clear Next Week

(Forecast)

Today (High 74): Increasing clouds with widely scattered rain showers possible during the day. Rain will become likely at night. 

Friday (High 60, Low 50): Cloudy and lightly breezy. Numerous rounds of rain showers are possible throughout the day and night.

Veterans Day (High 59, Low 46): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Sunday (High 60, Low 47): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 63, Low 40): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 65, Low 38): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 64, Low 39): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 66, Low 41): Mostly sunny.

(Tea Leaves)

Friday November 17th (High 68, Low 43): Mostly sunny.

Saturday November 18th (High 70, Low 46): Partly cloudy.

Sunday November 19th (High 69, Low 54): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain/thunderstorms.

(Pronóstico)

Hoy (Máxima 74): Nubosidad creciente con lluvias muy dispersas posibles durante el día. Por la noche será probable que llueva.

Viernes (Máxima 60, Mínima 50): Nublado y ligeramente ventoso. Es posible que se produzcan numerosas lluvias durante el día y la noche.

Día de los Veteranos (Máxima 59, Mínima 46): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias muy dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 60, Mínima 47): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias muy dispersas.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 63, Mínima 40): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 65, Mínima 38): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 64, Mínima 39): Parcialmente nublado.

Jueves (Máxima 66, Mínima 41): Mayormente soleado.

(Hojas de Té)

Viernes 17 de Noviembre (Máxima 68, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado 18 de Noviembre (Máxima 70, Mínima 46): Parcialmente nublado.

Domingo 19 de Noviembre (Máxima 69, Mínima 54): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

(Notes)

Remember that Weather101 classes continue to be offered through early December by the National Weather Service in Nashville. 

It is a good time to go back over your severe weather safety plan, since the weather is calm, but we sometimes have severe weather events in the month of November or even December, usually early December. 

As of right now though, the concern is for the drought emergency and its wildfire danger. Governor Ivey has prohibited outdoor burning for the state of Alabama. For this forecast period, it looks like any rain we get will be light to moderate, not worried about storms, just helps us slightly with the drought situation. 

(Discussion)





Wednesday was mostly sunny with only fair weather clouds and a southerly breeze at times in the Tennessee Valley. The High in Cullman was 79 after a morning Low of 50. Jasper saw a High of 81 and Low of 45. Haleyville had a High of 80 and Low of 56. 

Elsewhere around the region, Fort Payne got up to 79 degrees after a Low of 44. Decatur had a High of 82 and Low of 50. Huntsville saw a few more clouds off and on through the day, still a High of 82 and Low of 54 there. Over at Muscle Shoals, the High was 83 with a Low of 56. Nashville also had a High of 83 and Low of 56. Memphis saw a High of 84 and Low of 65. And Tupelo had a High of 85, Low of 58. 

We've got some light showers moving through the region already, so my neighbor with no meteorological knowledge appears to have been right, saying it was looking like it might start tonight. Which I really didn't think it was going to. But that cold front is approaching us now. This won't bust the drought, but every little bit helps. It's the best rain we've had in a while. 



As the front approaches today, Thursday, we may see rain showers during the day, but they should stay widely scattered. Then at night the rain will become likely, with most of us getting wet for a change. Expecting a High of about 75, though the cloud cover and rain moving in could knock a degree or two off that, depending on the timing. Also have to remember it is getting darker sooner now, so maybe closer to 74. 



Then on Friday as the front finishes pushing through the region, some rain will continue. The GFS in particular continues to make the moisture look underwhelming. Still think it will be a cloudy raw day, with periods of rain likely. But the chance of rain might be closer to a 50/50 shot here with much of the day just being cool and cloudy. High should struggle to reach 60 degrees, Low down around 50. And there may be a little breeze at times, wind shifting around to North. 



And then on Saturday we get into some model madness with the GFS painting a mostly dry day behind the front. 


And the ECMWF shows a whole lot more moisture and rain chances behind the front along a shortwave trough. 

Forecasting a 30% rain chance for Veterans Day with a High again struggling to even reach 60, the Low coming down into the mid-40's. 



The models continue to disagree for Sunday, where the GFS has the front long gone, and us dry. 


And the European model has post-frontal rain continuing. 



The Canadian GEM for Saturday and Sunday looks a lot closer to the ECMWF, and I think these models are picking up on something. Rain chance of about 30-40% looks reasonable for both Saturday and Sunday. A lot of the rain may come overnight between the two days, think 30% is a better estimate than getting carried away here. High near 60, Low in mid-to-upper-40's looks reasonable for Sunday.



The the forecast is more clear by Monday again, with us becoming mostly sunny again, high pressure moving in from the Plains behind the front. We should get up to the lower 60's after starting the day roughly around 40 degrees. 



High pressure should prevail again on Tuesday, centered up in the Ohio Valley by then. Looks like a High in the lower-to-mid-60's and the Low may actually dip back down into the upper 30's that morning, mostly sunny skies. 



Then on Wednesday, we actually have another major model discrepancy, the dry look from the GFS above . . . 



And another rainmaker coming in via the European. 

For now will only reintroduce a minimal 20% chance of rain since the GFS solution fits this pattern better. And keep temperature about the same, High in mid-60's or take a degree or two, Low near 40. 




Then the GFS doesn't really bring us any rain chances until Sunday the 19th, which I think is accurate. The super-long-range guidance from it and the ECMWF were both pretty trippy though. So just looking at general trends, and ignoring the European model wanting to bring us way too many days with rain chances in the long-range. As we get into this long range, Highs will likely climb back toward 70. As you can see, my struggle with whether or not to do 10-Day-Outlooks continues. About once a week, might still experiment with this. In general I think they are a lost cause, even if people like to see them. Maybe in summertime they have some value. 

The tropics are quiet. 


Over the next week, we'll probably only see an average of half an inch of total rainfall for most of the region. A few isolated spots could see totals closer to one inch. So again, we're not coming out of the drought yet, but this helps some. We need the rain, and while November can be a volatile weather month, this just looks like peaceful cool rain. 

P.S. Decided to cut out the rain chance for next Wednesday. 

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