Thursday, November 2, 2023

Staying Sunny and Dry, Gradual Warming Trend


Friday (High 65, Low 29): Sunny with low humidity. Cold in the morning with possible frost. 

Saturday (High 71, Low 36): Sunny with low humidity. Still cold in the morning, cool most of the day.

Sunday (High 73, Low 41): Mostly sunny. Cool. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 76, Low 47): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 78, Low 50): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 80, Low 56): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 76, Low 58): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

It was a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with light and variable winds. Well it did get a little breezy this morning, but then the winds died down. The High in Cullman was 59 after a morning Low of 25. The cold air came in pretty abruptly this year. Jasper saw a High of 63 and a Low this morning all the way down at 19 degrees. Haleyville had a High of 61 and Low of 21. 

We've got high pressure centered up over the Appalachian Mountains, and while I was off this grid, we had a strong cold front move through the area lately. We are in severe drought, and Alabama is not allowing outdoor burning for now, although up here in the Northern Counties, people can burn with a permit. Follow the link for more information on that. 

 The high pressure will gradually move Northeast tomorrow, and we'll start the day around 30 degrees, warm up to about 65 degrees in the afternoon, sunny skies, light winds usually from Southeast.

Then a gradual warming trend continues on Saturday, sunny skies again, light southerly winds, starting the day more in the upper 30's and then warming to about 70 or so in the afternoon. 

Humidity levels staying very low. So the fire danger continues even without much wind.

Similar weather on Sunday with a High in lower 70's, Low near 40. 

Between Sunday and Monday, a ridge should get established. Might see a few more clouds around. Monday looks like High in mid-70's and Low in mid-40's, could try to edge toward upper 40's. 

Further into the extended period, you can see the ridge of high pressure is more to our Southeast on Tuesday. Temperatures here should climb close to 80, probably not quite making it there, plenty of sunshine, so upper 70's, and the morning Low near about 50. 

Then a front will be moving through the Midwest and Plains on Wednesday. Not looking like a whole lot of moisture with it. We should see a High up near 80 here, Low in mid-50's, maybe a few more clouds around. 

And then as that front moves through our region, we might see some rain Thursday, but at this point, only going to put in a minimal 20% chance of isolated showers, Highs in 70's, Lows in 50's. Don't get your hopes up. 

One thing I will say is that November can often be our secondary tornado season in the late Fall as we are not quite into Winter. And that is a whole other set of problems. So the drought is kind of rough, but maybe we shouldn't complain too much, since sometimes the good rains come with a price this time of the year. 

There is a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean Sea that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms there, but it is not expected to become a tropical cyclone, very low chance of that happening either in the short-term or the long-term. It'll bring some heavy rains to Jamaica tonight and then over the weekend will bring some pretty good rains to much of the rest of Central America. 

Overall a calm forecast, just one where people need to use common sense about the cold mornings when we have them, and also about the drought and the serious risk of fires being able to catch up easily. Hats off to our firefighters in times like this. Let's work together to keep the problems down in that regard. 

I really do not have the energy to maintain this blog on a regular basis, having to focus on other things, but tonight decided to take a look at things and see if there were any interesting nuances. Started to do a 10-Day-Outlook for fun, but since it's November, that's probably not a good idea. Rather do a more basic forecast that's reliable. Those dubious longer outlooks are better for the summer or times when mistakes don't count as much. November can get exciting in a hurry sometimes. Although no signs of that any time soon that I can see. 

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