Thursday, October 19, 2023

A Little Rain Today and Tonight, Otherwise Dry and Mild Pattern

(Forecast)

Today (High 70): Partly cloudy with scattered showers possible during the day. Showers are likely at night. 

Friday (High 72, Low 53): Clearing and becoming sunny through the morning and rest of the day. Cool and breezy.

Saturday (High 77, Low 46): Sunny. Mild and breezy.

Sunday (High 69, Low 47): Mostly sunny. Cool.

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 72, Low 45): Sunny. 

Tuesday (High 73, Low 50): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 73, Low 52): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 74, Low 55): Partly cloudy.

(Reading Tea Leaves)

Friday October 27th (High 75, Low 58): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday October 28th (High 74, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Sunday October 29th (High 73, Low 59): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

(Pronóstico)

Hoy (Máxima 70): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias dispersas durante el día. Es probable que haya lluvias por la noche.

Viernes (Máxima 72, Mínima 53): Despejándose y volviéndose soleado durante la mañana y el resto del día. Fresco y ventoso.

Sábado (Máxima 77, Mínima 46): Soleado. Suave y ventoso.

Domingo (Máxima 69, Mínima 47): Mayormente soleado. Fresco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 72, Mínima 45): Soleado.

Martes (Máxima 73, Mínima 50): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 73, Mínima 52): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 74, Mínima 55): Parcialmente nublado.

(Leyendo Hojas de Té)

Viernes 27 de Octubre (Máxima 75, Mínima 58): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado 28 de Octubre (Máxima 74, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo 29 de Octubre (Máxima 73, Mínima 59): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is holding SKYWARN classes since we are almost into November. And the National Weather Service in Nashville is holding Weather101 classes with a broader range of topics. Hats off to both offices for doing that. 

While I would encourage anyone to take a class there (especially since they are free), I also wrote up some reminders about severe weather safety, that hopefully you may find helpful if you need to review your severe weather safety plan before we get any storms like we often do in November. 

(Discussion)


At 11:15 AM skies are sunny in Cullman with a temperature of 64 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 54 degrees, making the relative humidity 68%. Winds are from the Southwest at 8 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 15 mph. The pressure is 30.08 inches and fairly steady. The Low this morning was 48. 

Light rain is falling in Jasper, with a temperature of 63 degrees. The dewpoint is 59, making the relative humidity 88%. Winds are calm right now and have been light and variable through the morning. Pressure is 30.07 inches and steady. Visibility is currently down to 9 miles. The Low this morning was 41. 

Haleyville is mostly sunny, a few clouds around, with a temperature of 61 degrees. The dewpoint is 53, making the relative humidity 75%. Winds are from the Southwest at 7 miles per hour. Barometric pressure is 30.09 inches or 1017.6 millibars and steady. This morning's Low was 49. 

Fort Payne is sunny with a Southwest breeze and 68 degrees. Gadsden is sunny and 68. Decatur is mostly sunny and 68, a bit of a southerly breeze there. Huntsville is mostly cloudy and 68. Muscle Shoals is also mostly cloudy and 68, more of a breeze there, winds from the South. 

Elsewhere around the region, Birmingham is partly cloudy and 69 degrees. Atlanta is partly cloudy and 66. Nashville is mostly cloudy, breezy, and 65. Memphis is mostly cloudy, quite breezy, and 70 degrees. Tuscaloosa has clear skies and 69 degrees. And Tupelo is overcast and 63. 





So that cold front and trough is approaching our region now from back in Arkansas and Missouri. We'll probably only get up to about 70 degrees today with scattered showers. Some of us are already seeing some of those showers. But most of the rain will be overnight tonight, when rain will likely be widespread over the region. It is still not looking like a big rain. 


Most places will probably see less than a tenth of an inch, though some places in Tennessee might see closer to a quarter-inch. These are still low amounts as we remain in one of our driest times of the year. 



Skies should quickly become sunny behind the front tomorrow, could still see an isolated shower or at least some clouds lingering in the early morning, but then rapid clearing. Winds will shift around to the Northwest behind the front, and it will stay quite breezy, with gusts up to 20 miles per hour or greater at many times throughout the day. The actual temperature should only get up to about 72-73, Low around 53 tonight, but with that much wind, it'll feel cooler for a lot of us. 



And it will stay breezy on Saturday under sunny skies, the High making it up into the upper 70's but the Low down in the mid-40's with good radiational cooling. 



The reason temperatures won't cool much tomorrow and Saturday is that this front is moving more from West to East without so much of a Southward component to its motion right away. But notice as we get into Sunday, high pressure starts to build in to our North mainly, but enough to bring us some cooler air. 



That is because we have a reinforcing dry cold front set to move through the region Saturday night into Sunday. So Sunday should feature more sunshine than clouds, with a High near 70, or at least upper 60's, and a Low in the upper 40's. 



Then as we get into the extended period, the new workweek, Monday the high pressure should move to the East coast. We're looking at sunny skies around here, High in lower 70's, Low in mid-40's.



On Tuesday a low pressure system will bring some rain to places like Texas and the Plains, but around here, we'll remain under enough ridging to see mostly sunshine and another day of Highs in the lower 70's. The Low will probably rebound to near 50, enough moisture return for that, but not enough to worry about any rain. And we could use some rain right now, are in drought conditions. 



And that system is going to move slowly, ridging staying in place for us again on Wednesday. Might see an increase in clouds, but basically another dry day, or rain chances too low to even worry about (less than 20%), High in lower 70's, Low of about 50 or so. 



The ridge may finally start to break down by next Thursday. Might introduce a 20% rain chance here, but it is a toss-up. Expecting a High in lower-to-mid-70's and a Low in lower-to-mid-50's.



Then looking at next Friday, in the land of tea leaves now, reading tea leaves almost, definitely seems reasonable to bring back a 20% chance of rain. Lows will probably edge into upper 50's by this time. 



But even on Saturday as the front comes through, going to keep the rain chance low at 20%. Doesn't look like a ton of moisture available, if we can trust these latest model runs. And when you get this far out in an outlook, that's hard to pin down, you're looking more at general trends. Probably see a High more toward the lower 70's again and a Low approaching 60. 



And it looks like this front may try to stall out, so Sunday, again a 20% chance of rain, and similar temperatures to Saturday. 

And I'm only going to do a 10-Day-Outlook once or twice a week at the most. They are notoriously unreliable in dynamic weather patterns. But this pattern is kind of quiet, like in a typical summer. We actually had a pretty active summer this year, and have only had the quieter patterns as we got into Fall. When the weather is active, 7 Days is about as far ahead as you can expect to have any accuracy. 

Things are really looking dry, even next weekend's rain chances minimal, but of course, November tends to bring us many chances for rain and storms. So if you're wanting rain, wait another couple weeks or so, the drought can't last forever, and this is just part of the ebb and flow of our local climatology.



Tropical Storm Tammy is expected to affect the Lesser Antilles tomorrow, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, tropical storm or even hurricane conditions will be possible. There are some hurricane watches on the board for this storm too. Over the weekend, heavy rainfall from this tropical storm will spread into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as well as the Island of Puerto Rico. There may be isolated flooding issues as well as mudslides. 



There is more uncertainty with Hurricane Norma, which right now is a powerful hurricane with winds sustained at 115 knots, or 130 miles per hour. If this were to move faster than expected, then it could actually hit Western Mexico while it is still stronger. So that's something to keep in mind if you know anybody down that way. But the most likely scenario is that the southerly shear is going to increase in the storm over the next couple days, and then the Southern tip of Baja California can expect hurricane conditions this weekend. Depending on whether it slows down and changes direction as some models are showing, or whether it moves more quickly toward the Mexican mainland, that could make a lot of difference in how much hurricane impacts there are. Regardless, the heavy rains should start to impact California Baja Sur late tomorrow (Friday), and those heavy rains should continue to spread through the path of the hurricane through Sunday, with a risk for at least isolated instances of flooding and mudslides. You have to remember that the terrain here is mountainous and that they deal with different hazards than we do on the coasts of places like Alabama and Florida. 

All right, wishing you a good weekend, thanks for reading. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

A Cold Snap For Now, Then Warming Up Again with Unsettled Pattern

FORECAST: Tonight (Low 29): Mostly cloudy. Cold and breezy. Tomorrow (High 53): Partly sunny. Cold and breezy. Friday (High 52, Low 40): Sho...