Friday, November 17, 2023

Sunny and Cool Weekend/Showers and Storms Starting New Workweek

Saturday (High 65, Low 53): Becoming mostly sunny. Cool.

Sunday (High 66, Low 35): Sunny and cool. Cold in the morning. 

Monday (High 69, Low 45): Increasing clouds with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the day. Rain will become likely at night, and some thunderstorms are possible as well - some storms could even become severe. 

Tuesday (High 67, Low 56): Rain/thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday (High 50, Low 40): Mostly sunny.

Thanksgiving (High 53, Low 29): Sunny.

Friday (High 55, Low 32): Mostly sunny. 

It was an overcast day in the Tennessee Valley with periods of scattered light rain. The High in Cullman was 70 with a morning Low of 59. 

We have a cold front getting ready to move through. This is the first in a series of two. 

We'll have high pressure moving in tomorrow with mostly sunny skies returning. Should have a High of about 65, Low of about 53 overnight because of lingering moisture. 

Should see sunny skies again on Sunday, High near 66, Low near 35. High pressure over the region, the high pressure you currently see over the Midwest, will have moved in here by then. 

Then on Monday we'll have another cold front approaching, but the rain during the day should stay widely scattered. We may get up close to 70 degrees again, though should start the day in the mid-40's. 

Then rain is likely Monday night, and depending on how much the air destabilizes Monday, we could have some storms in the mix too. 

Tuesday as the front continues to move through, rain is likely, and storms are possible too, with a High in the mid-to-upper-60's and a Low in about the mid-50's. 

Then on Wednesday behind this front we'll clear out quickly with mostly sunny skies again, High near 50, Low near 40. 

And that trend continues for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures only rising back to about 55 degrees by Friday. Should have some cold mornings behind this second front, down to about 30 degrees on Thursday morning. 

For now it's looking like the threat for organized severe weather on Monday into early Tuesday will mainly stay over Central and Southern Mississippi and back into Louisiana, far Southern Arkansas, and Eastern Texas. Mesoscale details can make a big difference this time of year in how far North the severe thunderstorm threat extends though. So I'd keep an eye on especially Monday evening and night to see how things unfold. This cold front is a strong one and will bring a lot of lift and wind shear. So wherever there is even marginally unstable air, severe thunderstorms are a possibility. Better safe than sorry in November when it comes to storms. 

Really we have to watch Monday and Tuesday, because it is a strong cold front at the prime time of year for severe thunderstorms to become a problem again. And depending on a lot of details, either day could produce some severe storms, or we could have some overnight between the two days. The Storm Prediction Center has not outlooked any areas for Tuesday yet because there is not enough evidence to outline a 15% risk area yet. But the basic idea is on the table that parts of the Southeast U.S. may see some severe storms try to develop between Monday and Tuesday with this stronger cold front. 

This potential tropical cyclone is looking less likely to actually do very much, but Southeast Cuba, Haiti, the Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, are still at risk for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Right now it is over Western Jamaica, and as usual with these tropical systems, wherever flooding rains occur, mudslides are a hazard because of the terrain. 

Most of us will probably see between 1-1.5 inches of rain for this forecast period. We could see some as early as Sunday night, isolated, but for the most part, it is Monday and Tuesday that will help us try to get out of the drought. 

If you get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, you want to go to a small central room (or hallway) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house or other strong building, away from windows. You can't afford to stay in a mobile home with an approaching tornado. That's the thumbnail severe weather safety review for tonight, just in case we have any problems with the new workweek. 

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