Sunday, December 10, 2023

Clear and Cold Conditions Return

Monday (High 49, Low 25): Sunny and staying cold. Breezy in the morning. 

Tuesday (High 54, Low 24): Sunny. Cold.

Wednesday (High 56, Low 29): Mostly sunny. Cold.

Thursday (High 58, Low 33): Mostly sunny.

Friday (High 59, Low 35): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 60, Low 38): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 59, Low 40): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

 At 10:52 AM, skies are mostly cloudy in Cullman, though the clouds have diminished somewhat from earlier. The temperature is already down to 46 degrees. Our High of 57 occurred at midnight. The dewpoint is 41, making the relative humidity 82%. Winds are variable, sustained at 7 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 16 mph. The wind chill value is 42 degrees. The pressure is 30.03 inches and rising. 

It is mostly cloudy and 50 degrees in Jasper. Winds are from the Northwest at 12 mph, making the wind chill 45 degrees. Pressure is 30.04 inches and steady. 

It is mostly sunny in Haleyville, only a few clouds hanging around there, temperature of 46 degrees. Winds are from the Northwest at 15, with higher gusts to 23 mph. Which makes the wind chill value there 40 degrees. Pressure is 30.06 inches/1017.4 millibars and fluctuating up and down at times, overall holding steady, guess you could say it's falling slowly for the moment. 



The cold front has moved into Georgia, and the rain is outta' here. The clouds are moving out faster than I would have expected too. Sunshine is pouring in to much of the Northwest part of the state. And while it is breezy and cold, it is not the rough, raw day I'd expected behind this front. 

The rest of today, temperatures will continue to drop through the 40's and then 30's around dark. Before we reach a Low of about 26 degrees overnight going into tomorrow morning. 



High pressure quickly establishes over the region tomorrow. We'll still have breezy conditions in the morning, so it'll take a while for it to feel like it gets out of the 20's even though we'll have sunny skies, and temperatures will be rising. Afternoon high should only get up to about 50 if that. 




Models continue to show mostly sunny skies again for Tuesday with the high pressure moving to the Mid-Atlantic coast, High temperature rebounding to about 55, and the Low again in the mid-20's, very dry air and just a cold December day.



The airmass may modify a little on Wednesday as we get a slight southerly component to the upper-level winds, could see a slight increase in clouds and Highs edging up into upper 50's, Low coming back to about 30. 

Basically the same pattern on Thursday with a High in upper 50's, Low in lower 30's. Then Friday it looks more like upper 50's and mid-30's, doubt we see any rain, if so it'd be isolated, but chance looking so low, probably better to leave out of forecast for now. The GFS has trended away from its earlier rainy look. And even on Saturday, rain chances look minimal, just a few more clouds, High in upper 50's, Low in upper 30's. 

By Sunday it looks like need to reintroduce a 20% rain chance. But since the model guidance has been so inconsistent with this, going to blanket that 20% chance from Friday through Sunday. Sometimes you just have to fall back on probability. Expecting a High near 60, Low near 40 or so. May knock the temperature down into 50's for Sunday actually, will fine-tune that day by day when writing the weekend forecast. Even with a blanket forecast, sometimes try to get the nuances as close as can. 


Yesterday was something else. We had some trees and power lines down in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, seem to remember a power line being down near a bank in Fairview even. Plenty of large hail reports mainly back in Mississippi. But what people will remember this day for is the tornado reports. There were several. Had a couple down in Southern Mississippi, could be from the same tornado there. There was one in Southeast Alabama, also one down in the Florida Panhandle. But the ones that got everyone's attention were the ones that hit Springfield and also Northern Nashville and nearby places like Hendersonville and Gallatin yesterday. At least two supercell thunderstorms produced tornadoes there in the peak heating hours of the day. And the damage was significant. Some people lost their lives from those storms. Surveys are in the works. Please be patient, because these surveys are not easy at all. Personnel have to take their time and get it right. It is a difficult job also because they have to talk to people who lived through the storms. It is more than just flying over and assessing damage. It takes a lot out of a person to do a storm survey. As for relief efforts for the storm victims, I am never sure who to trust. I was glad to see the Red Cross set up a shelter, and I've heard mixed reviews on how often they legitimately provide help or when they might pocket the money in some cases. A lady I used to know advised me against donating to them after a hurricane a few years ago. I know Ryan Hall and his gang were planning on doing some relief efforts too. I do not know any of them personally but enjoy watching their coverage at times. I hope they help some of those people out. When it comes to how to donate any money or other goods or services, your guess may be as good as mine. I always pay attention to James Spann, because he has a pretty good radar for how to help after big severe weather events. But even he was overwhelmed after the 2011 outbreak and if I recall correctly, picked one family in Cordova and just tried to help them out over a long period of time. I guess what it boils down to is that after even one significant tornado like they had in Tennessee yesterday, things are a mess. And I guess to find the silver lining, at least a lot of people do want to help out. I'm sure anybody who lost a home or lost loved ones, or was injured in the storms yesterday, would appreciate any help that is genuinely offered. I remember J.B. Elliott always saying that he was surprised doing storm surveys and talking to people. He never met anybody who was mad. They were so happy to be alive. And most of them had lost everything that made up their former lives. 

Usually I try to keep it pretty stoic on this blog these days, when I even bother to do it at all. But I think everyone who pays attention to the weather feels some sense of the tragedy of events like yesterday's. It was only a couple years ago that we had a bad tornado event affecting Arkansas and Kentucky. These things can be sobering. 


And if we see any additional rainfall during this forecast period, it'll probably be about a tenth of an inch or less for most of us. We are coming out of the drought slowly but surely. Yesterday helped. 

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