Thursday, December 28, 2023

Light Snow Showers May Mix With Rain Tonight Into Tomorrow

(Forecast)

Friday (High 40, Low 30): Cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers are possible, and may mix with snow showers at times - little or no accumulation of snow is expected.

Saturday (High 47, Low 29): Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. 

New Year's Eve (High 55, Low 24): Sunny. Cold.

(Extended Outlook)

New Year's Day (High 49, Low 35): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. 

Tuesday (High 48, Low 26): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 46, Low 28): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

Thursday (High 50, Low 30): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of lingering showers. 

(Reading Tea Leaves)

Friday January 5th (High 51, Low 29): Mostly sunny.

Saturday January 6th (High 50, Low 30): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Sunday January 7th (High 49, Low 31): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

(Discussion)

At 1 PM skies are partly cloudy in Cullman. The temperature is 45 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 27 degrees, making the relative humidity 49%. Winds are calm. So far today they've been variable with a few breezy times, generally from the Northwest when they weren't shifting around a lot. The pressure is 29.89 inches and falling. 

Skies are fair in Jasper. The temperature is 46 degrees. The dewpoint is 28, making the relative humidity 50%. Winds are variable at 7 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 13 mph. That makes the wind chill 42 degrees. The pressure is 29.91 inches and falling. 

And it is overcast in Haleyville. The temperature is 42 degrees, with a dewpoint of 28, making the relative humidity 58%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour, which makes the wind chill 39 degrees. The barometric pressure is 29.92 inches, or 1013.1 millibars, and falling. 





We've got some cold air in place and some clouds moving through associated with that cold core upper Low that's up over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. 



Tonight into tomorrow, we will have the chance of some snowflakes mixing with the rain as this Low comes through. The Low temperature will be about 30 degrees, and I think the NAM is right in suggesting a High near 40 tomorrow. Skies will be cloudy. The chance of precipitation is only about 30%, so 3 out of 10 for any one spot. 



Then we should clear out pretty quickly on Saturday, the skies becoming mostly sunny, not expecting any rain lingering except maybe in the very early morning, or any snowflakes. Should start the day about 30 degrees again and then only warm up to the upper 40's in the afternoon. 



Then with high pressure over the Southeast, we should stay sunny on Sunday, which is New Year's Eve. High in the mid-50's and the Low down in the mid-20's. 



Then Monday, first day of 2024, the GFS is showing some rain chances with another quick hitting system. 


The ECMWF has very little moisture with this system. 


The GEM has us wet, at least by Monday evening. 

Going to bump the rain chance up to 40% and expect a High in the upper 40's, Low in the mid-30's. 



Then we come under another ridge of high pressure on Tuesday. We'll be sunny, and the High will struggle to get up to 50, probably upper 40's again. Should start the day back down in the 20's.



The GFS keeps us dry on Wednesday with the precipitation with the next Low pressure system staying down along the Gulf Coast. 


But the ECMWF has us getting some precipitation by the evening and night hours. 

We'll have to keep an eye on trends, with the High expected in the upper 40's and Low in the upper 20's. 

And this is far enough out we can't even try to break the tie with the GEM. I suspect that the European solution is closer to being correct, but for now, only introducing a 30% chance of precipitation. 



The GFS has high pressure swiftly moving in on Thursday. 


The ECMWF has us clearing out, but the precipitation and the low pressure system are gradually moving out of the region. 

Expecting a High of 50 or so, Low of 30 or so, maybe a lingering shower in the morning, but otherwise a day of gradual clearing. 

And I wasn't going to try a 10-Day-Outlook this time, but then I saw some people speculating on social media and blog posts about if we could have a snowstorm out at January the 10th. I think that is too far ahead to really worry about, like the model guidance gets so unreliable when it goes out that far. But I'll take a look at next weekend, which is January 5-7.


Next Friday looks like it would be mostly sunny, and I"m just going to default to a High near 50, Low near 30.



And I have to say, on Saturday, that Low coming out of Texas, we will have to keep an eye on. It does have the look of a potential snowmaker, if everything comes together right. But this is nine days out. So take it with a lot of salt. 



Then on Sunday, the GFS brings that Low up through here. Now this does look like the basic synoptic setup we would usually need to get accumulating snow around here. But please remember that a lot of ingredients have to come together just right for us to get accumulating snow around here. People hoping for it are usually disappointed. 


And the ECMWF still has it back in Texas by next Sunday morning (January 7th). 

So I have to admit I see why people were buzzing about maybe seeing some snow by January 10, thinking the slower European track is probably right and that this may all come together just right. It is a fun idea I guess. Wouldn't read too much into it yet. 

And even this forecast I'm going to make for the 5th-7th, please take it with a chunk of salt. 

For Saturday I think a High near 50 again, Low near 30 again, introduce a 20% chance of showers in case the GFS solution is closer to being correct. And then Sunday more like upper 40's, keep the Low around 30, increase shower chances to 30%. 

It is really too soon to tell if the temperatures might be colder and at what times. But just like some synoptic setups immediately make a forecaster think "severe weather" even a week or so in advance, this one looks like "snow". But it is only potential for snow. And frankly, when the models are struggling so much with a couple of systems before it, confidence in this way-out-there forecast is very low. This general idea of snow anywhere around this time frame could turn out to be complete bogus. It's okay to look at these things as long as you stay critical. You don't want to just jump on something outlandish 10 days or more in advance. 


Rainfall amounts are expected to be very light for this forecast period, generally a quarter-inch or less. If we see snow accumulations tonight or tomorrow, we're probably looking at up to about a half-inch to an inch in the higher elevations, mainly the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee. And then basically everybody else, certainly on the Alabama side, more likely to only see a dusting up to maybe a half-inch if somebody gets a heavier snow shower. This may be a non-event for most of us, with no snow accumulation at all. The flurries are still pretty to look at when school is out, I remember. 

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