Thursday, December 21, 2023

Milder Temperatures, Then a Wet Christmas, Then Turning Cold Again

(Forecast)

Friday (High 60, Low 34): Mostly sunny. Milder temperatures. 

Saturday (High 63, Low 38): Partly cloudy. Mild. 

Christmas Eve (High 65, Low 44): Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy at times. Scattered showers are possible at night. 

(Extended Outlook)

Christmas (High 62, Low 51): Rain.

Tuesday (High 55, Low 47): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 54, Low 37): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 55, Low 33): Sunny. 

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Nashville has put together a page about the recent tornado outbreak in Middle and Northern Tennessee. 

And the Weatherbrains podcast interviewed Greg Carbin about this year's weather this past Monday night.

(Discussion)




At 1:30 PM skies are sunny in Cullman with a temperature of 54 degrees. The dewpoint is 19, making the relative humidity 26%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.39 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 34. 

Skies are also sunny in Jasper with a temperature of 52 degrees. The dewpoint is 28, making the relative humidity 41%. Winds are variable at 3 miles per hour. Though I will mention that at both these sites, the winds today have generally shifted to a more southerly direction. The pressure is 30.39 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 23, so a much sharper temperature gradient from morning to afternoon than in Cullman. 

Also fair skies in Haleyville with a temperature of 52. The dewpoint is 28, making the relative humidity 40%. Winds are from the Southwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.41 inches, or 1029.4 millibars, and falling. 

For the moment we are under a ridge of high pressure, with only a few clouds and very light showers across the region. Most of those showers are probably virga anyway, not reaching the ground, showing up on radar. But our pattern is changing as those winds shift to the South, and we'll be dealing with our next front in a few days, looks like it will arrive just in time for Christmas. 



Tomorrow looks like as the pattern continues to slowly change, with that front approaching from out West, we will still be mostly sunny, but will warm up a bit more, don't think most of us will see 60 degrees, more like 58-59. The morning temperature will be a lot like today's, lower 30's. 



The progress of this system will be slow. As that high pressure is going to be slow in leaving our region. So for Saturday still just expecting a slight increase in clouds, little to no chance of rain, a High in the lower 60's, the Low rebounding to the upper 30's. So if you need to get something done outside, this might be a good time to do it, if you're off work. For a lot of people, this Saturday will be the most taxing work day of the year. I've worked at Wal-Mart this time of year, so I know how it is. 



Even on Sunday, our rain chances look slim to none. High in mid-60's, Low in mid-40's. We may see some rain at night, but I doubt we do during the day. It will be clouding up some though. 



Then on Monday, which is Christmas, the trough/front sweeps through our region. And it just looks wet. We may have some gusty winds at times. Risk of any thunderstorms is fairly low, air does not look that unstable. So if we see thunderstorms, they should be isolated, mainly just rain and a little bit of a breeze at times. Showers likely throughout the day. High back down in the lower 60's and the Low around 50 or so. 



Then that front has blown through here by Tuesday. We could see a lingering shower or two in the morning, but I doubt even that. Expecting mostly sunny skies and a High in the 50's, Low in the 40's. 



Then Wednesday looks like mostly sunny skies, High in the 50's and Low dipping back into the 30's as more of that cold dry air behind the front moves into the region. 



Looks like sunny skies on tap for Thursday as well and a High in the mid-50's, Low probably more down in the lower 30's again as we get good Northwest wind flow aloft. The dry air may be slow to come in behind this system just like the rain is slow to come in right now. Still think rain chances on Tuesday will be minimal. 


And we could see up to about an inch of rain during this forecast period. Christmas looks like it could be a soaker for some of us. 

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