Sunday, January 14, 2024

Mesoscale Discussion (MS)

 Thought this was worth passing along because this wintry precipitation will later move into Alabama and Tennessee. It looks like a fair amount of it may initiate as freezing rain rather than snow. 

It's a good night to sip some hot chocolate (or your favorite warm beverage) and tune in to Coyote J's Sunday Night Cemetery of Rock.

7:10 PM - Once again a radar check shows that it is all snow up across the Tennessee border, but get down to the Alabama state line, and you start to see a mix of sleet and freezing rain the farther South you go. If it was up to me, it'd all change over to snow by the time the night is over. But that's probably not going to happen, especially for North Central Alabama. And I reckon I'm more in sales than production with this weather stuff. And since I'm doing it for free, I guess I'm really  not even in sales either. Led Zeppelin sure does sound good tonight. Everybody stay warm and safe, unless of course, you have a fetish for flirting with turning into a popsicle or slippin and slidin on the roads, and in that case, you're on your own. 

Nashville sure is looking nice tonight with a light coating of snow. I was up there on Black Friday for a concert, first time I'd been to the city in years and years, but it was worth it. 

9:30 PM - And here is a look at Florence. Between 1-3 inches of snow have fallen there in Lauderdale County as reported by the public, the higher amounts over toward Waterloo. 

9:35 - And here's a more updated radar check. Looks like they are getting the goodies North of the Tennessee River, where most of it is changing over to snow now. South of there, our precipitation is spotty and mostly in the form of sleet or freezing rain. And more is coming out of Mississippi. Gradually more precipitation should spread farther Southward, and with temperatures going below freezing tonight, there should be a trend toward snow. But a lot of the models, mesoscale/convection-allowing, kept showing an ice mix. And it looks like they were right. From this point on, I'd mainly say watch radar trends and watch out the window more than relying on forecasts for this event. 

Mesoscale Discussion 0066

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

   Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern


   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 150048Z - 150545Z

   SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from

   portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the

   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level

   frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into

   northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing

   low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending

   branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm

   advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next

   few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this

   corridor amid cooling cloud tops. 

   Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below

   850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures

   in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should

   support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area,

   with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet

   given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling

   surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern

   portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA),

   where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may

   favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain.

   Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter

   precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame.

   ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551

               33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850

               34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268


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