Friday, January 26, 2024

Strong Thunderstorms Possible Tomorrow, Clear and Seasonable Next Week

Rest of Today (High 65): Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers are possible, mainly at night. 

Saturday (High 67, Low 55): Rainy and breezy. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, and a few could be strong or even reach severe limits. 

Sunday (High 47, Low 42): Gradually decreasing clouds. Staying breezy and turning cold again.

Monday (High 50, Low 34): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 58, Low 30): Sunny. 

Wednesday (High 57, Low 35): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 58, Low 33): Mostly sunny.

Friday (High 60, Low 37): Mostly sunny.

At 11:30 AM, latest observations show overcast skies in Cullman with a temperature of 61 degrees. The dewpoint is 57 degrees, making the relative humidity 88%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.17 inches and falling. It is also overcast in Jasper, with a temperature and dewpoint-temperature of 61, which makes the relative humidity 100%. Calm winds. Pressure is 30.16 inches and falling. And skies are partly cloudy in Haleyville with a temperature of 60. The dewpoint is 58, making the relative humidity 93%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.19 inches/1021.5 millibars and falling. As usual, a salute to the Haleyville station for using millibars. I note they had a bit of lingering fog this morning. Actually looks like a lot of places did along the I-65 corridor. 

Elsewhere around the region, Decatur is sunny and 63 degrees. Gadsden is mostly cloudy and 65. Huntsville is mostly cloudy and 62. Muscle Shoals is sunny and 63. Tupelo is mostly sunny and 62. Memphis is mostly cloudy and 56. Birmingham is overcast and 65. Atlanta is overcast and 64. Nashville is mostly cloud and 60 degrees. Fayetteville is mostly sunny and 61. And Winchester is also 61 degrees but mostly cloudy there. 





We are catching a break in the rain today, at least for the time being, but we still have that stationary front cutting across the state of Alabama and extending down into Lousiana and also up into the Carolinas and Virginias. Aloft we have strong Southwest wind flow and a low pressure system centered back in the Plains. 

By the way, the Paint Rock River near Woodville is under a Flood Warning with minor flooding expected, affecting Madison, Jackson, and Marshall Counties. 

Walker and Winston Counties are under a Flash Flood Watch, along with most of Central Alabama. Most the rest of North Alabama has been cleared from the Flash Flood Watch that was in effect a few days ago, including Cullman County. 

For the rest of today, looks like only isolated rain. Should see a High of about 65. 



Tomorrow that Low will open up into a negatively-tilted trough, and down at the surface we also have strong low pressure moving through the state with that front that's been stalled out. It is going to get moving tomorrow. And we will have some gusty winds and be covered up in rain, even from the early morning hours. We could have a few isolated thunderstorms. The Low tonight should be in the mid-50's, and then tomorrow we'll warm up to about 66-67 degrees for the High. 



We'll have more than one round of rain, and some model guidance, the mesocale/convection-allowing models, been showing that we could see some stronger storms in the mix tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere can become marginally unstable. The latest run of the NAM supports this between about 3-6 PM, mainly for Northeast Alabama and down into Central and Southern parts of the state. It is a close enough call that we need to watch it in Cullman, Walker, and Winston Counties. 


But taking a forecast sounding at 6 PM along the Cullman/Blount/Marshall County lines, where the combination of instability and wind shear looked best, even there, it is marginal, and the instability seems out of sync with the timing of the stronger wind shear, especially the kind that would support rotating updrafts. Still, a low-topped supercell or two somewhere is not out of the question. And there is an outside chance of a storm reaching severe limits in this setup tomorrow afternoon. 


And the Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Level 1 Risk of severe thunderstorms for North Alabama tomorrow, which barely clips Southern Middle Tennessee. 





The chance for any storms becoming severe around here is very low, but all it takes it one storm firing up to do some damage sometimes, even if it doesn't last very long. So I would respect that risk tomorrow and if you get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, try to get into a small central room (or hallway) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house (not a mobile home), away from windows. A lot of times in these marginal setups, if we see injuries, it's something really simple, like a tree falling, or a window blowing out from severe winds. 



As the system exits the region on Sunday, we will have gradually decreasing clouds, staying breezy, still more clouds than sun, at least for the morning hours. Even in the afternoon I think we'll see a good bit of clouds lingering even though the sun should come out too for most of us. High should only be about 46-48, Low about 40-43. 



Then Monday we'll have Northwest flow aloft, high pressure moving in from the Southwest. And that will bring us plenty of sunshine, mostly sunny skies, a High near 50 and the Low down in about the mid-30's, some places maybe lower 30's. 



Then on Tuesday we're sunny again with a High climbing into the upper 50's and the Low down around 30-32 range, good radiational cooling at night, Monday night. 



Similar weather Wednesday, High in upper 50's, Low by this time rebounding to about the mid-30's. 




Then on Thursday, again, plenty of sunshine, we'll start the day a few degrees cooler, lower 30's, because of a shortwave trough passing through, which will also bring a little bit of a breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, then a colder Thursday morning, lower 30's again. Then Thursday afternoon we'll be back in the upper 50's. 



Then for next weekend, the GFS has backed off on the idea of rain, and we'd only see an increase in clouds based on this latest guidance, Highs near 60 and Lows of about 40. 


Looks like we'll have about 1-2 inches of additional rainfall through tomorrow/tomorrow night. Not expecting any rain next week, even with the shortwave on Wednesday, or if that did somehow squeeze out a shower or two, would not be much, and rain would stay isolated through the region. 

And now we come to the "incredibly stupid" files. Usually now I try to keep my personal opinions about things other than weather off this blog. But good grief . . . apparently Ginger Zee has experienced what Meghan Thomas (in Tennessee now, used to work in Alabama broadcast weather) did the other day. Where some guy called up the TV station saying that her knees looked bad and that she needed to wear pantyhose. 

I think he needs to either confess he is a closeted knee fetishist, or try on some panty hose himself. Or just go out and inhale some nitrogen gas, but with oxygen included so he doesn't struggle and suffocate over several minutes. Anything goes these days, so that guy needs to quit calling up sweet-natured meteorologists with his inane complaints and get his freak on elsewhere. 

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