Thursday, January 25, 2024

Couple More Days of Rain, Clearing and Seasonably Cool Next Week

(Forecast)

Friday (High 65, Low 57): Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers are possible throughout the day. 

Saturday (High 67, Low 58): Rainy and windy. Isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 48, Low 41): Gradually decreasing clouds. Staying breezy and turning cold again. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 50, Low 35): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 57, Low 31): Mostly sunny. 

Wednesday (High 56, Low 34): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 57, Low 35): Mostly sunny. 

(Reading Tea Leaves)

Friday February 2nd (High 60, Low 39): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Saturday February 3rd (High 61, Low 43): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

Sunday February 4th (High 59, Low 45): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 65, Mínima 57): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias dispersas durante todo el día.

Sábado (Máxima 67, Mínima 58): Lluvioso y ventoso. Es posible que se produzcan tormentas aisladas.

Domingo (Máxima 48, Mínima 41): Nubes que disminuyen gradualmente. Mantenerse ventoso y volver a tener frío.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 50, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 57, Mínima 31): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 56, Mínima 34): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 57, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.

(Leyendo Hojas de Té)

Viernes 2 de Febrero (Máxima 60, Mínima 39): Parcialmente o mayormente soleado.

Sábado 3 de Febrero (Máxima 61, Mínima 43): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo 4 de Febrero (Máxima 59, Mínima 45): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Notes)

There is a Flood Warning in effect for the Paint Rock River. And there are a few other pockets of river flooding around the region. 

If you'd like to check on our drought, here is the latest from the National Weather Service in Huntsville. This recent rain is helping. 

The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding a Severe Weather Awareness Day in about a month. 

(Discussion)






It was an overcast day in the Tennessee Valley with periods of rain, fog, thunder, and breeziness. Winds were variable but most often from the South and West. And it was a pretty muggy day for January. The High in Cullman was 66, and the Low was 59. Jasper saw a High of 70 and Low of 59. The High was 66 in Haleyville with a Low of 58 this morning. Gadsden had a High of 69 and Low of 58. Fort Payne had a High of 69 and Low of 59. Decatur had a High of 68 and Low of 58. Huntsville had a High of 68 and Low of 57. Muscle Shoals had a High of 65 and Low of 58. 

Elsewhere around the region, Savannah had a High of 61 and Low of 55. Fayetteville had a High of 66 and a Low of 57. Winchester had a High of 68 and Low of 57. Memphis had a High of 62 and Low of 56. Tupelo had a High of 64 and Low of 58. Corinth had a High of 63 and Low of 54. Birmingham had a High of 70 and Low of 57. Atlanta had a High of 72 and Low of 62. And Nashville had a High of 63 and a Low of 57 today. 

We've got that steep Southwest wind flow at the upper levels of the atmosphere and a surface front that is stalled out over the region. 




As that system gets moving over the next couple days, it will bring more rounds of rain, which could be heavy at times, and also some storms in the mix. 


There have been some hints in model guidance of a squall line trying to develop on Saturday as the low pressure system moves through Alabama, but the risk of any severe thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley is very low, as instability looks to be slim to none. 




Dewpoints are going to have a hard time even making it up to 60 degrees Saturday afternoon, so it is just barely enough to keep an eye on, for an isolated stronger storm or two. 

So tonight should feature a Low in the upper 50's again, tomorrow the High only getting up to about 65 with an overcast day but rain staying somewhat scattered compared to what it's been. May have to look out for some fog, mainly in the morning. 

Then we'll be breezy and just covered up in rain for Saturday as the Low moves through the region. The High may edge up into the upper 60's, Low should be in the mid-to-upper-50's again. 


Then Sunday behind the front, clouds should gradually be on the decrease throughout the day. I think we'll see the sun, just more clouds overall. It will stay breezy, and we might see an isolated shower Saturday night or really early Sunday morning, but overall an end to the rain starting Sunday. And we'll cool off again, starting the day near 40 degrees and only warming to the upper 40's. 


Then high pressure approaches from the West on Monday, and our clearing trend continues. Should see mostly sunny skies overall, starting the day down in the 30's, mid-30's, and only warming to about 50 degrees in the afternoon. 




Then the ridge of high pressure will start to build over our region after a dry warm frontal boundary passes through on Tuesday. Should start the day Tuesday around 30 and warm to the upper 50's, skies staying mostly sunny. 

Then basically the same thing Wednesday and Thursday with Highs in the mid-to-upper-50's and Lows in the lower-to-mid-30's. 

Friday also looks dry on model guidance with the next chance of rain coming Saturday or Sunday. The two main global models, GFS and ECMWF, are split on it, with the GFS showing a Low coming out of the Gulf from the East that could bring us some rain. And the ECMWF showing a system from out West that will come through the Gulf but maybe bring us some rain this far North too. Looks like a High near 60 and Low near 40 for Friday, then similar Highs for Saturday and Sunday but with Lows coming up further into the 40's with more abundant moisture. Still it looks like rain should stay pretty isolated or widely scattered around here. And that's trying to look out ten days. I guess that's okay to do now that the pattern has settled down a little bit. Just understand that when you get into the 7-10 day range, you're looking more at general trends, and specifics of each day's forecast starts to become more of an educated guess. And I'm not always sure about the "educated" part. 



Whether you look at the national forecast from the Weather Prediction Center or the local forecast from the National Weather Service in Birmingham, looks like we could see 2-3 inches of additional rainfall. So of course, if you live in a flood-prone area, be cautious, never cross any water that covers the roadway. Considering how much rain we've gotten already though, we've gotten through this major soaker event so far without too many such problems in the region, and the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for most of North Alabama, remains in effect for Central Alabama. Anyway we needed the rain, and we certainly needed the warmer temperatures to melt last week's slush all the way outta' here. And next week looks really nice, about as good as it gets in January. 

And since I hardly ever get feedback, here's an experiment: If you like this blog, please leave me a comment. I am just curious as to whether I'd even get a handful of people that would like it to continue, even if it has to be more occasional than when I was a full-time meteorology student, once upon a time. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

A Couple Mild Days with Cool Mornings, Then Summer Heat Arrives

FORECAST: Tuesday (High 80, Low 55): Sunny. Mild.  Wednesday (High 84, Low 57): Sunny. Cool in the morning, warm in the afternoon. Thursday ...