Monday, February 12, 2024

Sunshine Returns Next Few Days, Cold Mornings and Cool Afternoons

FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 52, Low 34): Sunny. Lightly breezy and seasonably cold. 

Wednesday (High 60, Low 29): Sunny. Cold morning, cool afternoon. 

Thursday (High 65, Low 33): Mostly sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 63, Low 40): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 48, Low 38): Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

Sunday (High 51, Low 27): Sunny.

Washington's Birthday (High 57, Low 30): Mostly sunny. 

NOTES:

Tomorrow night there is a SKYWARN class in Decatur for the deaf and hard of hearing. It starts at 6 PM, and the details are that link along with the rest of the schedule. Looks like the Birmingham office has scheduled some online classes as well as one physical one. The National Weather Service in Nashville is doing similar online classes called Weather Safety Basics starting February 20. And they are also holding a Severe Weather Awareness Day on the 24th on the campus of Trevecca Nazarene University. 

A salute to Dan Satterfield, who is going through some rough times, as he mentioned on social media. He was the first meteorologist to show me around anywhere and really encourage me. Time will tell if that was a good idea. But hey, I think it's always a good idea to encourage somebody to learn and try something like that, whether they end up working in it or not. So wishing him and his kin well. You can still hear his forecasts on some radio stations here, though I think it's on AM. I've heard them when tuning in to Coast to Coast AM every now and then. He helped us get the ARMOR radar when he worked in Huntsville, about a decade before other places nationwide got dual-polarization radar. 

And another note of sympathy to someone whose work I admire, a radio station owner who was forced off the air (but is still streaming online) when some lowlifes (I use the plural because it's tough to imagine this being a one-man job) literally stole his AM tower and transmitter. I hope whoever did that is caught and held accountable. But for now, I only pass the story along and refer you to his GoFundMe page where you can drop a dollar in his bucket or offer some words of support if you like. It really is a great station, at a time when most radio stations have lost that personal feel. A lot of people I know just listen to their Pandora stations now, but when it was fully operational, this station had some good shows that would get you to tune in at a certain time, certain day. I'm very happy to see that they've already raised about one-sixth of what they need to replace the tower. Yesterday it was more like a tenth of what was needed. Also saw where a station owner in Cullman donated generously and left some kind words. This station that suffered the theft was in Jasper. 

As for the other crazy stuff going on in the world, tragic stories from yesterday, you can read all about it on Facebook, a site I quit about seven or eight years ago. I get more of my news from the radio now when I'm thinking straight. It can take a lot of research to get through the barrage of online garbage and find what's actually true. Sometimes less information is actually better, if turning down the noise lets you think it over more. 

And I'm not going to bother watching that new Twister movie, after seeing the preview. Too many chasers have really gotten that goofy in real life. If somebody wants to see that movie and take me along, I'll be rooting for the tornadoes to win the chases. 

I've decided to quit trying Spanish translations of these forecasts. If anybody misses them, let me know. But I don't think anybody will. 

DISCUSSION:






It was a rainy and somewhat stormy day in the Tennessee Valley, though we managed to avoid any problems with severe weather, just some thunderstorms with small hail and high wind gusts, that were strong, but stayed below severe limits. Winds are still gusting in the 20-30 mph range after the main line of rain and thunderstorms has moved over into Georgia. The High in Cullman was 59, and our current temperature of 52 is our Low so far. It is 5:30 PM. Jasper got up to 61 but also has fallen to 52 at this hour. Haleyville is already down to 48 degrees after a High of 58 earlier today. 

That front ended up occluding as it moved through the region. Temperatures are dropping rapidly behind it. 


And some of our neighbors in Tennessee may see light snow accumulations tonight after all. We may see some flurries in North Alabama, or we may just see drizzle. The chance of a shower tonight is about 20% around here, so only isolated precipitation. 



Because of how quickly we're drying out, as high pressure moves in from the ArkLATex region tomorrow, our skies will quickly return to sunny. We even saw some sunshine this afternoon with only a few fair-weather clouds, cumulus, if my eyes served me well. We might still be lightly breezy, at least early in the day, and winds should be shifting back around to the Northwest. They are already to the West tonight, this evening. Expecting a High near 52 and a Low near 34. 



High pressure will be moving through the Southeast and Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, and we will be high and dry, sunny skies, a High near 60, the morning Low near 30. 



On Thursday that high pressure will be starting to shift off into the Atlantic, and we will stay mostly sunny with a High in about the mid-60's and Low in the mid-30's. 



Friday we'll stay dry, at least during the day, but we'll have enough moisture return that clouds will be increasing. Should see a High around 60 or so, Low near 40. 



Looking at an intermediate time, Midnight overnight between Friday and Saturday, you can see the GFS does bring some moisture in here, so some rain chances. And the ECMWF is much more aggressive with it. 



For Saturday, the models have really begun to change the look from a day or two ago. Here you see the GFS pushing the front and the rain all the way down to the Gulf Coast at Noon Saturday. 



The ECMWF had a similar look to the GFS, so no need to show it. The Canadian GEM, which I only use on here every once in a while, still shows a more gradual progression of the rain through our region during the day Saturday. 



The guidance from the Weather Prediction Center makes good sense. The front drops in here Friday, and we'll have some rain overnight, and even though the front pushes quickly down to the coast, some showers will likely linger behind it. So in light of this, will put a minimal chance of rain in for Friday, 20%, with the understanding for people who bother to read this discussion, that the showers are expected to move in during the night. And for Saturday, I'm actually going to trim the rain chance back to 30% for Saturday. It'll be a cloudy, breezy day, but it is looking like the rain may be widely scattered and not last all day. Before I had a 40% chance for Saturday, and then yesterday I got into a weird mood where I threw caution to the wind and bumped it up to 60% in my mind and just put "likely." But this does not look like as big a rain event as our other recent weekends. And will modify the temperature from previous forecasts. Instead of a High in lower 50's and Low near 40, model trends make it look more like upper 40's for the High and upper 30's for the Low. 



This front is a quick-hitter, and we'll see plenty of sunshine again on Sunday. Looks like a High in the lower 50's, Low in the upper 20's. 



Then for next Monday, which is George Washington's Birthday, staying sunny and the High climbing into the upper 50's, the morning Low rebounding to about 30. 


The rainfall totals are expected to only average up to a tenth of an inch, and as you get well up into Central Tennessee, maybe more like a quarter of an inch. 

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