Friday, March 29, 2024

Great Easter Weekend, Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday

Saturday (High 75, Low 47): Mostly sunny. Breezy.

Easter Sunday (High 78, Low 56): Partly cloudy. Warm and breezy.

Monday (High 80, Low 60): Mostly cloudy. Warm and breezy.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 64): Thunderstorms likely - a few could become severe.

Wednesday (High 60, Low 47): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 65, Low 39): Sunny.

Friday (High 70, Low 40): Sunny.

Sábado (Máxima 75, Mínima 47): Mayormente soleado. Ventoso.

Domingo de Pascua (Máxima 78, Mínima 56): Parcialmente nublado. Cálido y ventoso.

Lunes (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Mayormente nublado. Cálido y ventoso.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 64): Es probable que haya tormentas eléctricas; algunas podrían volverse severas.

Miércoles (Máxima 60, Mínima 47): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 65, Mínima 39): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 70, Mínima 40): Soleado.

As we approach 12:30 PM, have passed the midday hour, skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 66 degrees. (The Low this morning was 36.) The dewpoint is 28 degrees, making the relative humidity 24%. Winds are variable but most often have been out of the South so far today, sustained at 6 miles per hour with higher gusts to 14 mph. The pressure is 30.21 inches and holding fairly steady.

Huntsville is mostly sunny and 67. They had a Low of 39 this morning. And Nashville is mostly sunny and 68 degrees at this hour. They had a Low of 39 this morning, same as Huntsville. The forecasts I write are for Cullman, and I'm happy to say that yesterday's forecast was right on the money. So sue me, when I notice that happening once in a while, it does bring a smile to my face. I forecast a High of 70 for today, so we'll see how close that gets.




This is about as good as it gets this time of the year. We have high pressure strongly centered over our immediate region. And the skies are clear, just enough of a breeze to make it really comfortable. 




The high pressure will start to move South and East of the region tomorrow. We'll have a High of about 75, Low of about 47-48. Our upper-level winds will be more from the West, and if you go farther back in the country, you can see there is more of a Southwest component. Our surface winds will start to turn more South/Southwest, and we'll be breezy again tomorrow. 



Then on Sunday, that trend continues, with the high pressure moving further into the Atlantic. We'll have some increase in clouds here but still a good bit of sunshine as well, another breezy day with the High making it into the upper 70's, about 78, the Low in mid-50's, about 55. 

As for the Easter holiday plans, the worst hazard I can see is that a few people's Easter baskets might have something blow out of them during one of the wind gusts. Which I mention mainly as a joke. Rarely do we get this good of weather for holidays where people like to do stuff outside, it's just about perfect. 



Then on Monday, we'll stay dry, at least during the day, while clouds will increase. It is our neighbors from the Plains through the Midwest, perhaps parts of the Ohio Valley, also parts of the Mid-South, who will get rain and storms from this cold front. And there is a really decent chance of some severe weather, especially out in the Plains. We'll talk about that a little more below the main forecast discussion here. For us in the Southeast/Tennessee Valley, we'll have mostly cloudy skies Monday, still a bit of a breeze. Around Cullman we'll see a High near 80, Low near 60. 



Then Tuesday the cold front will affect us. The GFS is currently making it look like it will be during the day Tuesday. But some previous model runs, especially of the ECMWF, made it look more likely to be Tuesday evening or night. I was going to show the European here, but its latest run is not in to that time period yet, for Tuesday. The data is still coming in. I don't think it's worth going back to the previous run just to compare. When we are still four or five days away from an event, there can always be details of timing that are still in question. We will have to watch for thunderstorms becoming severe on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Rain and thunderstorms are likely. And at the moment, it is looking like a High in the mid-70's, Low in the mid-60's. 



Mostly sunny skies will quickly return on Wednesday behind the front. We'll have a High near 60, Low in the mid-40's or maybe more like upper 40's. 



Then on Thursday we'll also have clear skies, low humidity, a High in the mid-60's and the Low near 40. 



And if you look out ten days, the general trend is toward mostly clear skies, Highs in the 70's and Lows in the 40's. 

I see that I got confused because I was working with the 12Z run of the GFS and skipped right over Friday. It is expected to be a sunny day with a High around 70, Low near 40. 

Just for fun, I may do a 10-Day-Outlook above, since the pattern does not look all that active days 7-10 this time. 



Latest run of the GFS shows that on Tuesday afternoon, the atmosphere is likely to have enough a combination of unstable air and wind shear to support severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes around here. 



Now if you paid attention to the placement of the surface Low on the main GFS maps above, you can see where the hot zone for severe weather might end up being somewhere in Central Tennessee or even up into Kentucky, kind of a close call. But we in the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama and the bordering counties of Southern Middle Tennessee certainly have a risk for some thunderstorms becoming severe too. 

And on Monday, that risk is back to our West. It is mainly centered on Eastern Kansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and stretching into much of Missouri, especially central parts of Missouri. The severe weather may get organized and try to produce significant damage somewhere within that corridor. The SPC has gone ahead with an enhanced 30% risk there. 

And then we have the basic 15% risk in place for North Alabama, Northeast Mississippi, far Northern Georgia, just about all of Tennessee and Kentucky, and even stretching into places like the Virginias and Southern Ohio. It looks like all the severe hazards are on the table, where storms could become severe with wind damage and large hail, and also sufficient turning of the winds with height to support some thunderstorms that rotate (called supercells) that could try to produce a few tornadoes across this broad area as well. 

So definitely review your severe weather safety plan, go over it with your family if you have a packed house. And it's especially important if you live in a mobile home, to have a plan to go somewhere safer, in enough time, if a Tornado Warning comes out for your location. Most of the people who end up seriously hurt or killed during severe weather, still most of it is happening where it really shouldn't. Even in some high-end tornado outbreaks over the last few years, almost all the deaths happened in mobile homes. And if you have a sturdy house where you can get to the ground floor, it could still make a big difference, if you get into the safest part of that house and maybe get up under something sturdy or use something like a blanket or a pillow to shield yourself from falling or flying debris. A lot of really simple precautions go a long way. Most people don't have storm shelters in their yards these days. So it's important to know when severe weather is possible, might get sort of organized, and be ready to do the right things if a tornado (or even a thunderstorms with really dangerous winds and large hail) is coming in your direction. 


While we could see heavier rainfall totals in stronger storms on Tuesday, overall our rainfall amounts should average a half-inch for this forecast period. 

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