Friday, March 1, 2024

Mild with Some Sunshine Peeking Out This Weekend, Unsettled Next Week

FORECAST:

Saturday (High 66, Low 46): Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. 

Sunday (High 73, Low 50): Partly to mostly cloudy. Warmer. 

Monday (High 72, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with rain chances lasting into the night. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Tuesday (High 70, Low 60): Rain likely - thunderstorms possible. 

Wednesday (High 71, Low 56): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 72, Low 54): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 69, Low 56): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Sábado (Máxima 66, Mínima 46): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Leve.

Domingo (Máxima 73, Mínima 50): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Más cálido.

Lunes (Máxima 72, Mínima 58): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas, y las posibilidades de lluvia se prolongarán a través de la noche.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 60): Probabilidad de lluvia - posible tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 71, Mínima 56): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 72, Mínima 54): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 70, Mínima 55): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 56): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
DISCUSSION:

It was a cold, overcast day in the Tennessee Valley, with periods of rain and fog. The High in Cullman was 48 with a morning Low of 41. Jasper had a High of 48 and Low of 43. Haleyville had a High of 49 and Low of 41. Huntsville had a High of 50 and Low of 43. But it's one of those weird days where the High temperature came at about 4 AM instead of in the afternoon hours. Nashville has had very poor visibility this evening, that jumped out at me, and overall they had a day of cold, overcast conditions, some light rain and fog, High of 50 and Low of 40. 

This is Severe Weather Awareness Week for Tennessee. Alabama already had ours, so this is just to make sure everybody in the region stays nice and confused. 




We have a frontal boundary more-or-less stalled out along the Gulf Coast up to the coast of about South Carolina. Southwest winds aloft. There are a few isolated showers around here, mainly up in Central/Eastern Tennessee, but for the most part, the rain has shifted East of the Tennessee Valley for tonight. 



And the rest of this weekend has trended drier with each computer model run. Tomorrow is now looking like rain chances will be minimal, less than 20% areawide. We'll be partly to mostly cloudy, but no rain is expected for most of us. When the chance of rain gets down to like 10%, I don't even worry about it for a formal forecast. High should be near 65 or 66, Low tonight should be about 45-47 range. 



Again on Sunday it looks like we have a break from the rain. Looks like more clouds than sun overall again, but most of us will probably still see some sunshine in the mix. We'll have South winds, staying light, but we'll warm up to the lower 70's, about 72-73, the Low near 50. 




Monday begins an unsettled weather pattern, even though the actual cold front has slowed down on all the computer models that I've looked at. Will keep the mention of rain as widely scattered on Monday, could have some thunderstorms too, High in lower 70's, Low in mid-maybe-upper-50's, about a 3 out of 10 chance of any one spot getting wet. 



The actual cold front comes in on Tuesday, and rain is likely overnight Monday night into Tuesday. We'll see a High near 70, could be in upper 60's, and a Low near 60, could be only in upper 50's. Thunderstorms are possible in the mix. 



The GFS wants to rush this system through here on Wednesday. 


The ECMWF begs to differ. 



The GEM (Canadian model) actually is closer to the GFS solution this time. And the American model did get an upgrade (finally) a few years ago. So it may closer to the truth this time. These GEM graphics are valid at 6 AM and 6 PM. It is not available at Noon (18Z) like the GFS and ECMWF graphics that they put in the public domain. 

So Wednesday will be a lot like Monday in terms of rain chances, staying more scattered in nature, about a 30-40% chance, High in lower 70's, Low in mid-50's. 



Only scattered rain chances for Thursday also, with a High in the lower 70's, Low in lower 50's. 



Looks like we won't get a clear frontal passage until late Thursday into Friday. And enough moisture should linger on Friday to merit about a 40-50% chance of rain. 

Really it's looking like this system might not clear out of here until next weekend, not completely, with clearing skies and all that good stuff. We will be dealing with chances for scattered showers/maybe thunderstorms even next Saturday. Though for Friday the High will probably be only 70 or so, Low in about the mid-50's. Then Saturday we may see upper 60's again, but I'm not too sold on a cooldown behind this week's front until the following week. Basically going to make this a a forecast for an unsettled week all next week. Now that Saturday night, we will "spring forward" an hour as we go from Standard to Daylight time for this year. Thanks to Brad Travis from WAFF-48 for that reminder. 

This time of year, we always have to watch for any stronger storms, but this pattern is so unsettled and messy that nothing really jumps out as having an organized severe weather potential for the next 7-8 days. And nothing like that has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center. 


We will get a lot of rain during this forecast period. Totals of 2-3 inches will be common across North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. 

Due to many factors, I'm taking some time off this blog and shifting my focus to some things that have a better chance of actually helping me out, beyond the fact that I enjoy any job well done. 

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