Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Mostly Dry Pattern Holds, Warming Up Again, Maybe Some Rain Next Week

FORECAST:

Wednesday (High 73, Low 50): Mostly sunny. Mild. 

Thursday (High 77, Low 52): Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms possible during the day. Rain may increase in coverage at night but should stay fairly scattered. 

Friday (High 80, Low 60): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday (High 83, Low 62): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 82, Low 63): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Monday (High 81, Low 62): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 80, Low 63): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Miércoles (Máxima 73, Mínima 50): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

Jueves (Máxima 77, Mínima 52): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias/tormentas eléctricas aisladas durante el día. La cobertura de lluvia puede aumentar durante la noche, pero debería permanecer bastante dispersa.

Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado. Aún son posibles lluvias y tormentas muy dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Sábado (Máxima 83, Mínima 62): Mayormente soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 82, Mínima 63): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 81, Mínima 62): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Máxima 80, Mínima 63): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES:

The NWS Nashville is still holding a few more Weather101 classes. I see one on hurricanes on May 10th, that evening, should be interesting. I've taken several of those classes lately, by Scott Unger, Paige Baggett, Mark Rose . . . really appreciate all those people making some free and enjoyable education in meteorology so easily available. They do these at least once every year. I think sometimes they do another round in the summer or the fall, but I'm not privy to what their plans are the rest of this year. For future reference, this is especially good if you have kids who are interested in the weather. They can learn some college-level stuff in some of these classes, but in terms that are easy to understand. The sooner people can understand the basic ideas, the better, if this is going to be a lifelong interest. So I can't praise these classes highly enough. 

This time, I don't have any such praise for the Weatherbrains podcast (the only weather podcast that appears to post new shows consistently), which interviewed the Shoals Weather group last night. Apparently they think it's cute to call themselves "Tennessee Valley Weather" now. Gee, I wonder where I've seen that before. When I briefly worked for them many years ago (Fred Gossage and Drew Richards were the two I mainly dealt with), I found them to be lacking in professional ethics, to say the least. Seeing them put up on a pedestal is about as disgusting to me as seeing people fawn over Reed Timmer. 

I can't help but notice that they co-opted the exact web address I had for about five years, used the exact same title for their website, and are even using the exact same Twitter handle I had back when I was in college and could put all my energy into it. At least now I can confidently say that my suspicion they had a major personal beef with me was not an example of my being too cynical, but was all too true. Fred even calls himself a "weather dude" in his Twitter bio, and called himself that in a pose of modesty on the show last night. When I see things like this, I think maybe my never totally giving up on meteorology could be a good thing. If I didn't have anything to offer, nobody would have bothered ripping off my style and putting a conscious effort into shutting me out while they pursued their own success. This lets me know that I did something right, somewhere along the way, and might could find a way to do it again. Those guys did rave to me that I did an "awesome job at communicating" meteorology. 

The only other time I came close to actually working in meteorology after having to drop out of school was with a guy named Jay Fuller who runs Live 95.5 FM in Cullman. The job wasn't going to pay anything, their station was basically made out of paper (so not a great place to be during severe weather), and circumstances just weren't to where I could swing it. But I have nothing bad to say about Jay or the people he worked with. Several of them made a good impression on me. 

I still love their radio station, even though I mostly skip the talk shows, music is great. I was glad to see that he supported Brett Elmore from 101.5 FM in Jasper after that guy's radio tower got abducted by aliens a while back. Which of course I'm joking about. But I still wonder how anyone can steal a radio tower like that. The only motive I can think of would be drug money, but that seems like it would take some effort and planning. Even someone I know who had a prior lifestyle of some drug problems absolutely flipped out over that, like that was just insane. 

By the way, if you'd like to donate to that station getting a new tower, you can do so here. Every little bit helps. They are not quite halfway to their goal yet. Some great people from iHeartRadio in New York helped them stay on the air. 

I listen to them for their Sunday night show, where Coyote J. plays his "Cemetery of Rock", remasters of a lot of great classic rock, not just big hits, but really obscure stuff. ("Susie Q" by Credence especially sounds good on the remaster, for some reason. But so does a lot of less popular stuff.) I liked his old show "The Edge" better, since it also included new music, but I'm just glad he is still around, one of the most unique people I've ever heard on the radio. Music has become really depersonalized and automated, as much as I like some services like Pandora, and it's great to hear some personality and unique style brought back to a radio show. I'd rather hear Coyote J's show than Alice Cooper's. And Alice has a great one too. Can't remember what station I stream it on offhand. But I catch it every once in a while. He's touring with Rob Zombie again this year, not stopping in Alabama. Never seen his act, but I'd love to. One time I did see one of his former guitarists as part of an oldies get-together, that also had the guy who did the high-pitched vocals for "Sherry" by the Four Seasons, I believe. That was the first time I heard "I'm Eighteen". That guy was wicked on the guitar, and I've loved the song ever since. Turns out Alice Cooper is a really clean-living guy these days. If he didn't play golf, I'd say he was still hardcore. How about he's still hardcore and the real deal on stage? I try to ignore the fact that he goes golfing. That is just wrong for a rock musician. 

Most of my energy needs to go into things that are more likely to be part of trying to build a more solid future. I often think that hanging on to any of this meteorology stuff is a waste of my time and probably everyone else's. But when I saw that show last night, after taking an excellent class from the Nashville office, I got really, really pissed off. And that's why you have this forecast tonight. I'm back here to show people how it's done. Though granted, since I'm not a full-time meteorology student, I no longer have the ability to watch the entire area of North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee 24/7. This site is not the best for real-time updates, because my circumstances are a lot different than when I could provide that kind of coverage, and did. But as far as forecasting, I think it's fair to say that I can still do a better job, as one person, than all four of those jabronis up in the Shoals/Lawrenceburg, even when I'm half asleep, or have allegedly been sippin' the wine. 

And yeah, I'm having a little fun with the situation. Might as well. 

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has shared a recap of last year's weather highlights

And if you haven't tried some chicken-flavored pizza rolls yet, you're missin' out . . . 

DISCUSSION:  




It was a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with a South/Southwesterly breeze. The High in Cullman was 73, and the Low this morning was 37. Jasper saw a High of 75 and Low of 36. Haleyville had a High of 73 and Low of 38. 

We've got high pressure just off the Atlantic coast and then a cold front from the Midwest and Great Lakes back to the Plains. 



Might have to watch those showers to the Northwest to see if any isolated showers could creep in here in the early morning, but overall tomorrow looks like another dry day with plenty of sunshine, a High of about 73, Low of about 50. 



Again on Thursday the high pressure system over the Southeast should keep the rain out to our West for the most part. Will allow a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 


They will have to look out for some organized severe thunderstorms out in the Plains. 



Looking at the projected movement of the front, some rain chances are in order for Friday, but probably staying on the lower end. 


The most likely time for rain in our neck of the woods might actually be overnight between Thursday and Friday. This GFS projection is valid at 1 AM technically Friday morning, but many people would think of it as Thursday night. 

So a 20% rain chance is justified for Thursday, then 30-40% Thursday night into early Friday morning, and then 20-30% during the day Friday. A probability of 30% means widely scattered rain, 20% is isolated. 

To make this simpler, I'm going to show tomorrow through Friday on the WPC graphics, so it's mainly showing the fronts and pressure systems, not raw model forecasts like you see above. 




And you can see what's happening Thursday night into Friday, a warm front is lifting through our region, well away from the parent Low way back up in about Nebraska. 





Tomorrow the severe weather probabilities are minimal even out in Oklahoma. 

Then on Thursday, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, all the way up into at least Southern Nebraska have a potential for organized severe weather. 

Then on Friday, the severe weather potential is staying out in the Plains (mainly Eastern Plains) into the Midwest, mainly Missouri and Iowa. 

We are far enough away from the core of this system that we're not worried about getting severe weather from it. 

And it's rare to be able to say that in late April/early May. We're about to be into May. So of course it's always good to be prepared for severe weather this time of year, but it really looks like our unfortunate neighbors in the Midwest and the Plains are going to see the action this go-round. While we might just get a few showers and general thunderstorms. So if you know anybody out that way, might want to make sure they know they have multiple days when severe weather could be an issue. Usually during May and June, things start shifting out that way. Seems like it is trying to happen a little early this year. At least this pattern usually does not set up until late May or into June most years, speaking from my personal experience in observing the weather. 

It's very lucky for us, and I'm not complaining a bit. Just if you know people out that way, maybe give them a heads up, since they are used to their main severe weather season starting a little later in the year than this. It could get fairly organized at times, especially to areas just Southeast of where that surface Low tracks. 



By Saturday I think it is safe to cut the rain chances out for the Southeast. We should have enough of a high pressure ridge built back in to keep the rain chances to our North and West. Our High should be about 80-84 range, Low about 60-64 range. 


And they will continue to have a risk for organized severe thunderstorms back in the Plains, stretching up into much of Missouri. 



Again on Sunday, it looks like that high pressure ridge is going to keep the rain at bay to our West/Northwest. We should see mostly sunny skies here, a High in the lower 80's, a Low in the lower 60's. 


And it looks like the best chance for organized severe thunderstorms that day will be from Arkansas through Missouri into Illinois. 



The ridge should break down enough to allow some rain chances back in here on Monday if you believe the GFS model. 


The ECMWF shows a slower progression of the front, as is often the case. 



Then next Tuesday, the GFS shows the front kind of washing out over the region. 


And again, the European model begs to differ with the American one. Happens a lot this time of year, especially in the extended outlook. 



But as usual, the Weather Prediction Center does an excellent job of getting the main ideas across. The front should finally make it in here Monday and Tuesday, perhaps a bit weaker, as the High slides off into the Atlantic Ocean. The Low associated with this front is passing well to our North, should be into Canada by Tuesday, so this synoptic setup does not appear to favor any sort of organized severe thunderstorm potential for our region at all. I guess you always have to keep an eye on things this time of year, prime time of year for us to get severe thunderstorms just in terms of climatology, but this setup looks very much the other way, like we're just going to see some rain showers and plain old thunderstorms. 

Going to keep PoPs (probability of precipitation) in the 30-40% bracket both days and forecast a High near 80, Low near 60. 


Rainfall totals in our region will generally total less than one inch for this forecast period. 

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