Monday, April 1, 2024

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday

April Fools Day: Mostly cloudy. Warm and breezy. High 80, Low 60

Tuesday: Thunderstorms likely. Some possibly severe. High 78, Low 67

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy and turning cooler. High 60, Low 45

Thursday: Sunny. High 59, Low 37

Friday: Sunny. High 62, Low 33

Saturday: Sunny. High 66, Low 35

Sunday: Sunny. High 70, Low 38

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 43

The new outlook has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, and here is how it is shaking down for Tuesday around here. 

Some of us are under the basic Level 2/5 risk for severe weather, and some of us are in the enhanced 3/5 risk for severe weather. 

Notice that in the enhanced risk area, there is a 30% chance of damaging thunderstorm winds, where the rest of us only have the basic 15% chance of that. 

We basically all have the same 15% risk for severe hail, that means quarter-sized or larger. 

And we have a 2% tornado risk that roughly coincides with the basic risk area, a 5% tornado risk that coincides roughly with the enhanced threat areas. If you pay close attention to the maps above, you can see that places like Nashville up into much of Kentucky actually have a higher tornado threat, a 10% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. 

So to boil it down, we all have a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes across the region Tuesday. Depending on the timing, some of it could last into the evening or night. As of right now it is looking more likely to be a daytime event, or at least start while it is still daylight. 

The better chance of seeing wind damage from thunderstorms or seeing isolated tornadoes is in that enhanced level 3 out of 5 risk area in orange. But the rest of us still have some risk of that in the basic level 2 out of 5 risk area in yellow. All of us need to pay attention to this and have a safety plan in place ahead of time. But in that enhanced zone, you need to pay a little extra attention. 

This is the only day in this forecast period we are expecting rain or storms. But I really encourage everyone to respect this severe weather potential. It could get somewhat organized. And really all it takes is one damaging storm or tornado to cause us some real problems, if people are not prepared for it. So please be aware, have a safety plan, and spread the word. 

SPC AC 010558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z




   A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee

   Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the

   central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will

   be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to

   be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central

   and northern Kentucky.

   ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central


   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to

   upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances

   eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a

   north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast

   to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central

   Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s

   F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous

   thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and

   moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the

   afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central

   Appalachians by early to mid evening.

   A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into

   the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong

   deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by

   21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in

   the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale

   ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the

   development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will

   likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat

   being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize

   during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic

   circulations will be possible along some parts of the line,

   especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is

   also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally

   stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop

   ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during

   the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central


   ...Central Gulf Coast States...

   An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains

   on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower

   Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper

   60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will

   peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered

   thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the

   front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster

   moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the

   afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level

   lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early

   afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and

   isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be

   possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the

   southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and

   deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the

   central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a

   more isolated severe threat with southward extent.


   An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard

   on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast

   across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the

   cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase

   during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves

   through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the

   unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail

   during the evening into the early overnight period.

   ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024

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