Friday, May 10, 2024

Sunny and Mild Weekend, Rain Chances to Start the New Workweek

Saturday (High 78, Low 50): Sunny. Mild.

Sunday (High 81, Low 52): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, warm in the afternoon. 

Monday (High 76, Low 55): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 60): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers.

Wednesday (High 80, Low 60): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 81, Low 61): Partly cloudy. 

Friday (High 78, Low 63): Thunderstorms likely. 

We had a partly to mostly sunny day in Cullman today with a northerly breeze and a High of 75, Low of 64. 





What a difference a day makes. That cold front is well to our South and East, and the rain has even moved out from the Gulf Coast around Mobile to over the ocean. 



High pressure moves into the region more strongly tomorrow, and we'll have sunny skies, start the day about 50 degrees (dry air, radiational cooling) and them warm up to about 77-78 in afternoon. Today was a little warmer than model forecasts, so tomorrow might get a degree or two warmer too. 



Mostly sunny skies again on Sunday with a High closer to 80, maybe 81, the Low still in lower 50's, about 51-53 range. Hmmmm that makes 52 sound like a good estimate, who's with me?



Then on Monday, a closed Low over the Midwest, a front approaching, we will see some rain chances again. The GFS has backed off on how much rain we get how fast. 


And the NAM shows the same more conservative scenario, same basic idea the ECMWF has been showing for several days now. 

So going to keep the forecast for a 30% chance of rain Monday, widely scattered rain showers. 

The latest MOS is wanting to drop the High temperature way down in the lower 70's, but I don't think that's right. The earlier guidance of mid-70's makes more sense here. Probably see more cloud cover than sun overall during the day, but I'm going with mid-70's here, the Low in the mid-50's. 



Looks like that Low will open up into more of a shortwave trough as it moves into the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday. 


The European model is still showing a lot more rain than the American one (GFS). And I still think the truth will be between those two extremes, but closer to the ECMWF. Going with a 50% chance of rain for Tuesday. 

As we get closer to it, it looks like the most rain may fall overnight between Monday and Tuesday. But a 30% chance of rain Monday during the day and then 50% Tuesday, would go ahead and say "likely" for overnight between the two days. 

And I'm going to stick with mid-70's for the High, near 60 for the Low temperature with so much moisture but also rain keeping the air sort of cool. 



Wednesday looks more and more like a break in the rain. Forecasting partly to mostly sunny skies and not bothering about such a tiny chance of any lingering rain. High near 80, Low near 60 again. 



And now it's looking like Thursday will be dry too. Expecting a High near 80, Low near 60, give or take a degree or two. 

But I'm taking the rain chance out for Thursday because the GFS and ECMWF have both come to agreement on that. 



It's looking more like the front will come through here on Friday. And with this run of the models, the threat for severe thunderstorms doesn't look that high, just the synoptic setup. But reading the SPC discussion, I remember they said from Texas to the Southeast might have to watch for severe between Wednesday and Friday. Yesterday I was looking at this with a lot of vigilance because we had just gotten through with a severe weather event that overperformed, especially in far North and Northeast Alabama. But this doesn't look too concerning at this point. 




But then if you look at forecast parameters Friday afternoon (this is at 4 PM CDT, 21 Hours UTC), it does show just enough combination of unstable air and wind shear to work with for severe thunderstorms. Take a forecast sounding from around Ardmore where the combination looks best around here on this guidance, and it shows moderate instability and weak wind shear, at least weak for tornadoes to develop. And if this is right, it would only point to a marginal large hail/damaging wind threat. 

But it's really too soon to tell. And you have to watch things this time of year. I'm going to take the mention of strong storms out of the forecast. I expect people to have sense enough to know that we always have to watch for surprises in May. It's not worth putting that in a forecast without some good strong evidence, which is why the SPC has not outlined any risk areas for Wednesday through Friday so far. 

But will go with likely rain and thunderstorm chances. I almost want to say something about strong storms in the forecast, because I have a gut feeling we might have a low-end event on Friday. But there is not enough logical evidence to back that up. So leaving it out. Just mentioning it in passing here. 

Expecting a High in the upper 70's, Low in the lower 60's. 


Rainfall totals for the next seven days will average about two inches on the Alabama side, closer to one inch on the Tennessee side. With the flooding you folks up in TN had lately, I bet you have no complaints about lower rain totals. We had some down here too but not nearly as bad, from what I could tell. At least that stuff going on North of Nashville looked pretty rough. And I saw where a YouTuber I'm familiar with had some serious damage to his home from the flooding as well as trees down from the severe winds. 

In all the hustle and bustle of so many severe storms in the middle of this week, I sort of forgot about Hurricane Awareness Week. Which is why I just included that link. 

I actually took an online class this evening about hurricanes and other tropical cyclones. I forget the lady's name who taught it, because she mentioned her name had recently changed from getting married. I can't keep two names straight on an evening I was already multitasking. Frying chimichangas with a cat jumping up and trying to inspect everything while taking a weather class on a cell phone counts as multitasking. But it was a fun class that I would gladly take again at a quieter time. I gave a few really dumb answers to questions sometimes, just because of a lack of focus. But I nailed about half of them. This season is expected to be very active with such warm ocean temperatures already. 

Here are the latest tornado surveys from the Wednesday night/Thursday morning event. 

Started to write a long "op-ed" at the end of this thing tonight but then thought better of it, saved the draft in case I find a use for it later. That's why this post took hours to finish. It was originally going to be a quickie, and might as well have been . . . 

P.S. Couldn't see Northern Lights from here, but some people did as far South as Mobile. Quite a solar storm . . . 

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