Monday, May 20, 2024

Very Warm (Sorta Hot Actually) and Unsettled Pattern Setting Up - Next Couple Days Look Clear

Tuesday (High 87, Low 64): Sunny. Very warm.

Wednesday (High 88, Low 65): Mostly sunny. Warm. 

Thursday (High 87, Low 67): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Friday (High 86, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 87, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 89, Low 67): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Memorial Day (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service offices in Nashville and Huntsville have put together pages on the May 8-9 severe weather event. 

Here is a helpful link about rip currents from the NWS Mobile. And those do exist outside of Mario games. I wouldn't worry about 'em, try to enjoy being at the beach, but you want to be aware of them, sort of like you're aware of snakes in the woods around here. Just in case it ever happens, have some idea of how to handle it. Word on the street has it that drowning in a rip current is a lot worse than getting stung by a jellyfish. 

Overall it's been a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, but there have been periods of a few clouds, haze, even some light rain, most of it closer to sprinkles. Let's just call it sunny, or mostly sunny. And we've had periods of breeziness, though usually it's been a lighter breeze, also some times the winds got up to 10-15 miles per hour or more. Even on a lovely day, details can be variable. Sometimes I like to keep things simple, even though the world can be awfully complicated. 

So let's just say it was basically a sunny, calm day. Whaddaya say?

The High in Cullman was 84, and the Low was 63. Huntsville had a High of 87 and a Low of 65. And wow-wa-zooka, Nashville, the Music City itself, hit the big 9-0 today - 90 degrees for the High in Musicville-vegas up there. Their morning Low was 63. Ya' know the urban heat island effect really is a thing. I started to explain it here, but I think I'm just gonna' tell ya' to "Google it." Because ya' see, the last time I called a doctor's office and asked them what they meant by mailing me instructions to eat a lower-fat and lower-carb diet, like could I get a sample meal or two, the nurse told me that I could Google it. So if that's good enough for medicine, it's good enough for meteorology. 

Then again I do remain a lardbutt, and that was a few years back. So just in case any of you were to find your Googling too confusing for this urban heat island thing, here is an excellent link from the folks at NASA, who make this concept simple and straightforward. That means easy to understand, or it's somewhere in the ballpark, mmmmmkay?

And I could have explained it myself, but you know, these people at NASA have a higher pay grade than me, and they probably know more what they're talkin' about than just about any of the rest of us. I mean I never put a man on the moon, have you? Besides, I have way too good a time clowning for you sad, lost souls who actually read this blog. 

Speaking of clowning, I couldn't help but notice this post from Ms. Bree Sunshine in Nashville. I can't say I've ever had any such problems with the cicada invasion, I just think they're pretty to look at like any other harmless bugs, but I gotta' say, people these days ain't got no manners, and it seems to be extending further down into the animal kingdom. So we humans need to set a better example. Use some discretion whenever you fly and land on somebody and like, try to drink their blood or whatever bugs do. 

And since we are homo sapiens, any blood drinking should be done through a straw, so as to be creatures of refinement, rather than the usual barbarism. 

Actually come to think of it, if you're into blood-drinking, just go to the nearest psychiatric clinic and tell them you're a vampire. Make sure to laugh really evil too, like MWAAAAA HA HA HA HA! They love that. 

Anyway, on to the weather. Yeah so maybe I'm not exactly Ryan Hall (y'all), but in this simple text format with only a few pictures for educational purposes, I guess this blog could count as weathertainment. Certainly if you see anything on here that doesn't make sense, check with your most trusted degreed meteorologist, see what that dude's saying. I'm basically a college dropout who's trying to keep his chops from going completely to pot and vaguely hoping to go back to school for it some day. And since I understand I have no reputation to uphold in the field of weather, I figure we can just have fun here. I try to keep it somewhat tasteful, like more tasteful than Family Guy at least. But then again, I am a very naughty boy as well, like that Monty Python quote that I remember from . . . somewhere. 

We have high pressure in place over the region today, which would explain our abundant sunshine. I'm not even sure about those reports of sprinkles here and there, kinda' sounds like nitpickin to me on a day this nice. They do have severe weather going on today in the Midwest and Great Lakes region. And behind that in Wyoming and Colorado, they've got a mix of ice, doesn't look like much snow. And not enough for any winter weather advisories out there. 

Tomorrow that severe weather risk will be stretching all the way back to the Eastern Plains, and especially in the Midwest, there is potential that some people could see a fairly significant severe weather event out of this setup. But around here, high pressure will remain in control of our weather. We'll see a High in about the 86-88 range, and because of what we saw this morning, I'm going to put the Low at 62-64 range. 

Then on Wednesday, we've got that cold front working down closer to here. It's going to have some trouble getting past that ridge of high pressure though. Some severe thunderstorm risk will extend from the Ohio Valley all the way back into Texas, looks like Arkansas might be a hot spot for this round. But you know, it's just been a really fun year so far for that sort of thing. 

We might have seen the last gasp of it around here until about November. I don't wanna' jinx it, but we're nearly into the month of June. And once a summer pattern sets up for us, we really don't get severe weather other than those "pulse" thunderstorms or those mesoscale convective systems that can survive all the way from Missouri. Those usually just damage a few trees and power lines, and they are so hit-or-miss that sometimes people barely mind having a tree come down as long as it doesn't land on 'em. Because it's a heavy downpour and a break from the heat, might have some hail in there, which really cools the air down for . . . a little while. About the only thing that breaks up our summer monotony most years is hurricanes. If they come inland. And this season does look like it'll be an active one, with record-warm sea temperatures. 

Eh but don't worry, there's nothing to global warming, keep making fun of Greta Thunberg and her autism, and be sure to knock Elon Musk and say his Tesla cars are worthless, because . . . that's just the way to be, right? 

Some time I might write a serious essay about global warming on here. I've heard a wide variety of views on it and had a lot of time to reflect on them later. I argued with some of the people I respected most about it, to get them to speak their minds bluntly. And they certainly did. I wish I still had all my notes, even from a class I took on it, from a milder-mannered professor I really liked and remember fondly. Believe it or not, I came to that global warming class straight from a religion class. We covered Buddhism, Confucianism, Taoism, and Christianity. And I was the only one in there who wasn't a philosophy major. One guy just laughed and laughed when I told him my next class was global warming, right after religion. And this was back before people wanted to totally burn each other at the digital stake for heresies. I'm surprised the inquisition hasn't come after me yet, but I figure they will get to it after they are done laughing and considering me beneath contempt. 

By the way, the reason I'm going on these tangents and clowning around is that our local weather is calm compared to what it's been in a while. Notice I didn't do much of this back when we had organized severe weather threats, especially not that day that Huntsville got a tornado in the dark hours. Like I say, knock on wood, maybe we won't see anything else like that until November. And I wouldn't mind if November was quiet too, just some windy, rainy days instead of the whirly twirlies. That's the new name for tornadoes, by the way. Reed Timmer sent me a text message and told me that in his brand new groundbreaking science book, "tornadoes" is henceforth an obsolete term. And will now be replaced by whirly-twirlies. 

Though he is not sure if that is the precise term he will use. Since he was inspired by that old Mannfred Mann song that states, in clear scientific language, "And little early birly gave my anus curly whirly, and asked me if I needed a ride . . ." 

What were they smoking back then? 

Something better than I'm sipping, apparently, when I have these delusions of communications from the Great Reed Timmer. He is on a plane far above all of us. Not like an airplane, but a higher plane of scientific understanding. Which says that "tornadoes" is no longer adequate, and we must sing and dance to Mannfred Mann while we think of a better name. 

This new term of whirly-twirlies is in the beta testing stage, but Sir Timmer tells me he still considers himself an alpha male. 

And he's working on teaching the alphabet too. Because we gotta' get back to basics. 

But we also gotta' get with the times and quit using boring words like "tornado." He's been inside so many that I think it made alphabet soup out of his brains. Otherwise he wouldn't be texting me at all. 

Lest Reed should think I'm being serious about actually getting enlightening text messages from him, let it be known that I am simply awed by his superior understanding of the science. Which blew my nose and then blew my mind. 

Oh wait that's another song . . . 

Where were we on the weather?

Well anyway, it's Manfred Mann, not Mannfred Mann. See, that's why Reed Timmer is going to teach the alphabet along with groundbreaking tornado science. 

Ok ok . . . if he really is, I'll let you tell you himself, instead of me reporting on text messages from him that . . . may not even exist. I'll let you figure that one out for ya'selves.

We might get a few showers and thunderstorms around here in Middle Tennessee and Northwest Alabama, mainly up around the Shoals up into about the Western third of Tennessee on Wednesday, but I tend to think if we do, it'll be late in the evening or even the night hours. And that front is just going to have a tough time getting a lot of rain past that ridge of high pressure, which is a lot like we'd have in the month of June. 

For most of us, just a slight increase in clouds on Wednesday. The High should be about 86-88 range, the Low about 64-66.

On Thursday it still looks like the better chance of rain or thunderstorms will be over the Tennessee counties, and even that will probably stay fairly scattered. For down here in Cullman, forecasting a 20% chance of rain. High in the mid-to-upper-80's, Low in the upper 60's. 

Looking at the GFS and ECMWF, I'm just not that impressed with the front's moisture as it stalls out on Friday. It will weaken the ridge some and get some rain here, but rain chances probably stay about 30-40%. At the moment I'm leaning toward 30% but will review after looking at the overall picture, after taking it day by day here. But it may be enough to knock the High down to mid-80's, Low in the mid-to-upper-60's. 

We'll have moisture left Saturday for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms. Between the GFS and ECMWF guidance, a 30% chance of rain looks right. But I'm second guessing this a little because this is a summerlike pattern. And we are nearly into summer. Lots of times, both of these global models can really overestimate our summer convection. Lots of times the rain is a lot more widely spaced than what they show as we get into summer. So may adjust the forecast for that, adjust rain chances downward a little. It's not like this is really high-impact weather, except that it is Memorial Day coming up. Lots of people have plans for this next weekend. 

High in the mid/upper 80's again, Low in mid/upper 60's. 

it looks unsettled like in summer on Sunday too, but will probably cut rain chance back to 20%, expect a High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. 

And actually on Memorial Day it looks like the rain chance may come back up just a little. Still probably on a 30-40% chance of rain. And like I say, I'm probably going conservative with this forecast because the pattern is more like summer than spring. We're just about into summer now. And it usually doesn't rain quite as much as the models show as we get into this time of year. 

Notice from the GFS though we're in a different upper-level pattern, more zonal flow from the West. So we don't have that strong ridging anymore. But still this will be May 27th. That's nearly into June. And usually we don't have really organized stronger storms as we get into June. Summer storms that get out of hand tend to be isolated or part of a dying cluster that might have its last gasp around these parts. 

Anyway temperatures look similar for Memorial Day. Might knock off a degree or two in case of an uptick in cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

Wouldn't cancel any plans over it, based on what we're seeing right now, just have a safe place to go if there is lightning, like if you're going camping or something. If we get a 3 out of 10 or 4 out of 10 chance of rain, I'd still go about my business, especially on a holiday, if you're off work and whatnot. 

Started not to say anything about Memorial Day. If I say I'd like to honor our fallen heroes, that sounds like virtue-signalling. And there's way too much of that going on now. Don't want to do that. But then when I state that, that sorta' sounds like a form of virtue-signalling in itself. 

So what the heck . . . I'll just say that a guy I had Driver's Ed with, really good guy named Richard, thought he was serving his country shortly after we graduated. And he died over there in what I considered to be a pointless operation, no point in troops being where he was at the time. And I always found that tragic. I remember complaining to that guy that I wasn't able to learn how to drive except when I went to the other parent's house on the weekends. And in class of course. And he told me about somebody else he knew who couldn't and then another friend whose mother wouldn't let him try to drive "because his attitude ain't no good." He was just a really smart, decent guy, that I never dreamed would die young. And as much as I've tried to get numb to how people in power don't care about the lives of the common folk, as a general rule, even in America (though it's the best the world has done so far, this revolutionary idea that potentially everybody matters), whenever I think about him, I'm glad there is a day to honor people like that. 

Although I'm not sure whether Armistice Day/Veterans Day may be better. The people who survive, especially if they feel like they were used for a pointless mission, may have it even rougher than the ones who don't come home. I had two people in my family tree, one that I never met, but another I was fortunate enough to meet. They had opposite reactions to what we'd call post-traumatic-stress-disorder now. Back then, if they called it anything, they'd call it shellshock. One of them became such a raging bundle of nerves that some people even told me, they were relieved when he died, because at least they didn't have to listen to him carrying on and having cussing fits all the time. He lost one of his hands in the war, World War II. That war certainly had to happen. Nazism had to be stopped. And then the other guy that I actually knew very late in his life had the opposite reaction. When he was dying, some people talked to me about how much they had always admired him, including some people I never expected to hear it from. He tried to be kind and gentle after the war, because as he put it, he figured he'd seen more men killed in one day than most coal miners see in their whole lives. There was an old Persian cat that was afraid of people but would let him pet her and hold her. 

Not to badmouth the other veteran too much, some people told me good memories of him too. One family member enjoyed his company, but got so mad at him, because he would always take the opposing view to whatever she was already griping about. She didn't realize he would take any excuse to spend time with her. So one night he'd made her so mad that she didn't come by the next night. And he actually called her up. "What's the matter? You ain't gonna' come and fuss with me today?"

So for Memorial Day coming up, in case I don't post anything else until then, how about taking a moment to remember our basic humanity that does come up even in these complicated times, whether it's with bullets or even worse weapons flying around and killing or maiming people or whether it's something like the tornadoes that barely dodged some of my kinfolks earlier this month. 

If anybody complains that I'm virtue-signalling by saying that, I'll be sure to include a dirty joke in my next post. 

For now . . . 

A white horse fell in the mud. 

And Reed Timmer let a whirly twirly give him curly whirly . . . or something. 

Around here, rainfall totals through the holiday will probably total between a half-inch and one inch, on average. It really looks like several days of really scattered rain, not a big soaking for most of us on any particular day. 

P.S. As of 8:52 PM I update this post to note that apparently I was another victim of misheard lyrics in that Manfred Mann song. See . . . I told you . . . I can't virtue-signal if I try . . . because I am not virtuous . . . I have a dirty mind. 

So yeah . . . a white horse fell in the mud. 

But that's better that curly-whirlies that blow houses away, me still thinks. 

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