Monday, February 20, 2023

Warm, Windy, and Unsettled

Tuesday (High 69, Low 58): Cloudy and breezy. Periods of scattered rain showers are possible. 

Wednesday (High 80, Low 61): Mostly cloudy, muggy, and windy. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, and an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out. 

Thursday (High 82, Low 63): Becoming mostly sunny. Staying unseasonably warm. 

Friday (High 62, Low 51): Partly cloudy. 

Saturday (High 73, Low 52): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

Sunday (High 72, Low 59): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 74, Low 60): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. 

There is a SKYWARN class in Cullman at 6 PM tomorrow evening and also one in Fayetteville (TN) at 6 PM on Thursday evening. It's some of the first in-person storm spotter training classes we've had around here in a while. Thursday also features a class in Gadsden at 6 PM along with several online classes the Birmingham office has scheduled in the near future. 

The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding classes on the basics of weather safety. It is also Severe Weather Awareness Week in Tennessee, and today's topic is flooding. If you knew anybody up around Waverly for that fairly recent event, you'll know, that is a big deal in some cases. That is one of the many topics that will be spoken about at Saturday's event, Severe Weather Awareness Day in Nashville. 

Here as we approach the 2 PM hour, we have fair skies in Cullman with a temperature of 63 degrees. The dewpoint is 55, making the relative humidity 77%. Winds are from the South at 14 miles per hour. The barometric pressure is 29.88 inches and falling. Visibility is ten miles. The Low this morning only got down to 50 degrees because of the humid air. Yesterday's High was 63 degrees. 

Elsewhere around the region, Haleyville is partly cloudy and 66 degrees. It's 65 degrees in Fort Payne. Gadsden has fair skies and 70. Muscle Shoals is partly cloudy and 70. Huntsville is overcast and 63. Tupelo has fair skies and 73 degrees. Nashville is mostly cloudy and 65. Birmingham is at 68. Atlanta is at 72. 

So we have that upper-level Low southwest of California. Then we have the southern jet stream bring us the warm moist air here. And it is split so that up North, much of the country is influenced by that polar jet stream, bringing them much colder air. 

And you can see that reflected in the position of several surface Lows and cold front boundaries on the surface map. The high pressure over the Carolinas and in the Gulf of Mexico are about to relax their grip on our weather. 

Up North, in the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas and into Minnesota and even much of the Midwest, they are going to be dealing with a snowstorm this week. While we have warm temperatures that threaten to break records. 

Tomorrow will feature breezy conditions, about a 40% chance of rain, and a High near 69, Low near 58. Some of the rain around here will probably start this evening and tonight, but even so, the rain should be scattered and not a nonstop sort of rain. 

Then on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves through the Plains, it will be a warm and windy day around here, but rain chances of only about 30%. 

And it continues to look like the best chance of any storms getting organized and becoming severe will remain to our West in places like Memphis, Northern Mississippi, much of Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, back into parts of Eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Even there, the threat of organized severe weather is very low. It's more like a few isolated storms may be able to become severe. Things have to come together just right for severe weather - unstable air, wind shear, and a lifting mechanism. And despite how warm it is for late February, the ingredients are not coming together in the right way to get an organized severe weather threat going. 

Wednesday mainly looks like a warm and windy day with a High near 80, Low of 60 or so. And we do have that 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger storm can't be ruled out, but like I said, the muggy air, wind energy, and lifting mechanism simply seem to be out of sync for any sort of organized severe weather potential around here. 

Then on Thursday, we'll become mostly sunny with a High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower-to-mid-60's. 

The ECMWF wants to slowpoke a lot of rain through here even on Thursday, but in this case, I think it is the model that is not picking up on things accurately. Looking at all the models together over the past few days, I think the GFS has a better handle on it this time. 

Then our big cooldown behind the front comes on Friday, with a High about 60 or so, Low of 50 or so. We could see a rogue shower, but I'm not sure the chance is enough to even justify putting in the forecast. Will mention a few more clouds than on Thursday. 

On Saturday that front quickly lifts back northward as a warm front. Which will continue our unsettled weather pattern. And we'll warm right back up, Highs in the lower-to-mid-70's, Lows staying in the lower 50's. Rain chance should be about 30% for Saturday. None of these days are looking like big rain events, it's more of an unsettled pattern like you'd see in the summer, except of course not as hot, and with more cloud cover. 

Then on Sunday it tries to move back southward as a cold front. Still looking like should only increase rain chance slightly to 40%. High should be in the lower 70's, Low near 60. 

And then next Monday we'll be watching a far more robust storm system from the Plains/Mid-South where it looks like the trough axis will take on a negative tilt and that the position of the surface Low and cold front could bring a chance for organized severe weather out there and then perhaps to our region as we get into Tuesday of next week. It is too soon to speculate on very much, but just be aware that we are getting into our primary severe weather season, and that the idea is on the board. Once again, High in lower-to-mid-70's expected, Low around 60. Chance of rain, will hold it at 40% due to uncertainty as to the timing of this next front versus the moisture already in place by then. 

Most places in Alabama will probably only see up to about a half-inch of rain for this forecast period, and up in Tennessee, the average amount will be up to an inch. These looks like mostly muggy days with plenty of clouds and gusty winds, and periods of rain, not big soaking rains that last all day long. 

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