Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Cooler Air and Rain Chances Return

Wednesday (High 65, Low 46): Partly cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers are possible. 

Thursday (High 58, Low 49): Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers possible during the day. Rain will become likely at night, and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the mix. 

Friday (High 67, Low 51): Rain likely, thunderstorms possible. The rain will gradually diminish as the day goes on, heaviest rain should be in the morning hours. 

Saturday (High 60, Low 41): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 66, Low 48): Rain likely, storms possible.

Monday (High 56, Low 45): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 53, Low 34): Sunny. 






At 1:30 PM we have sunny skies in Cullman, 75 degrees. The dewpoint is 50 degrees, making the relative humidity 41%. Visibility is back up to 10 miles, some haze earlier actually dropped it to 3 miles, but we have perfect visibility again. Winds are from the Northeast at 10 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to about 17 mph. Barometric pressure is 30.09 inches and steady. We had a Low of 59 this morning. Jasper is at 79 degrees, with winds from the Northwest at 9. They've had a few more clouds and morning fog today than we have in Cullman, but are currently sunny with perfect visibility. Their Low this morning was 54. And our neighbors in Haleyville are at 75 degrees under sunny skies. They had some heavy fog this morning too. Morning Low was 51. Currently their winds are from the North at 8 mph. 


That front has made it to about Montgomery, and as expected, we only got some breezy conditions, clouds, and fog instead of rain from it. 


So we are high and dry for now. Some low pressure along that same frontal system is bringing chances for rain to of course the Gulf Coast but also back up into the Ark-LA-Tex region and up into Kansas and Missouri. Once you get further up into the Midwest it starts to mix with ice. And once again we have snow in the Dakotas, Minnesota, stretching back into the Rocky Mountains, also snows in the Pacific Northwest and in New England. High pressure bringing tranquil weather to the Desert Southwest, also a high pressure system parked in the Gulf of Mexico. That front is expected to stall out around Mobile.


Tomorrow we should get enough of the moisture from out West to support isolated rain. It's about the rain chance you'd get on a typical summer day, about 20%. Skies should be partly cloudy, High about 65, Low about 45 or 46 tonight. And it will be a little breezy.



Clouds increase and rain chances ramp up Thursday and especially Thursday night. As the next front approaches. May adjust forecast a little bit, 30% chance of rain Wednesday to account for Wednesday night. And then bump it to 50% for Thursday, mentioning that rain chances go above that, "likely" for the night hours. Looking for a High about 58 and a Low about 49, breezy.


Then on Friday the front will finish pushing through the area with rain gradually tapering off as we get later in the day. Look for a High in the upper 60's, Low in the lower 50's, again going to be a breezy day with this front moving through. 


Saturday we catch a break in the action. Mostly sunny skies, High near 60, Low near 40. 


Both global models continue to show another system moving into our region on Sunday. Rain is likely. Even this far out, I feel confident in putting the rain chance in the likely category and not bothering about percentages. 

The GFS does not look concerning for any stronger storms at this point, the parameters it is showing, weak instability.



And even on the ECMWF if you look at dewpoint temperatures during peak heating hours on Sunday, they are struggling to be even marginal values once you get up into North Alabama. 

Still is enough hint of instability to mention thunderstorms in forecast, not enough to mention any severe weather potential. Think we'll see a High in the mid-to-upper-60's and a Low in the mid-to-upper-40's. 


Monday behind the front, we'll see mostly sunny skies, High only making it into the mid-to-upper-50's after a morning Low in the mid-40's. 


And that dry pattern with cooler air continues on Tuesday of next week. High pressure will be moving our way from the Plains and the Midwest. Should see a High in lower 50's and morning Low in mid-30's if not lower 30's, sunny skies around here. 


Rainfall totals for this forecast period should average up to two inches on the Tennessee side, more like three inches on the Alabama side. Especially near bodies of water that have already recently flooding, risk of at least isolated problems with flash flooding will need to be monitored between the rain Thursday night into Friday and the other round of rain on Sunday. For now the threat of any stronger storms on Sunday is looking low. Not worried about severe at all for Friday. 

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