Thursday, June 22, 2023

A Return To More Typical Summer Weather This Weekend and Next Week

(Forecast)

Today (High 80): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Friday (High 83, Low 61): Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.

Saturday (High 88, Low 63): Sunny. Hot and dry.

Sunday (High 90, Low 67): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Any storms in the evening or night hours could be on the strong side. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 88, Low 68): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 91, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 93, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 94, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Beach Forecast)

Today (High 88): Thunderstorms likely. 

Friday (High 86, Low 72): Thunderstorms likely. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 72): Partly to mostly cloudy with numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.

Sunday (High 89, Low 75): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. 

(Discussion)

At 1:05 AM skies are overcast in Cullman with a temperature of 66 degrees, also a dewpoint of 66 degrees, making the relative humidity 100%. Pressure is 29.86 inches and steady. Winds are calm, and earlier were light from the North/Northeast.  Visibility is 10 miles. Yesterday's High was 79 with a Low of 66, mostly cloudy skies and periods of light rain and fog. Skies are clear in Jasper with 66 degrees also. Haleyville is also at 66, mostly cloudy there. 

Fort Payne is overcast and 68. Winchester is overcast and 66. Fayetteville is overcast and 68. Muscle Shoals is overcast and 72. Huntsville is overcast and 70. Decatur is mostly cloudy and 68. Birmingham is mostly cloudy and 71. Nashville is overcast and 70. Mostly clear skies, a few clouds in Memphis, 73 degrees at this hour. And Tupelo is mostly cloudy and 73. 

That does it for the regional roundup. 





That frontal boundary is finally staying to our South and then going to move off to the East as well, not going to cause us any more problems. It really has been a wild ride around here lately. With that upper-level Low taking charge of our weather now and that strong ridging beginning to build over Texas and the Great Plains, we will be transitioning into more of a typical summer pattern. 

Today should feature a mix of sun and clouds, about a 40% chance of rain, scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. High near 79-80. 



Tomorrow that upper Low will open up into a trough over the Ohio Valley while the High pressure ridge continues to build in from the Plains. Looks like a High in the lower 80's, Low of 60 or so, only about a 20% chance of a shower or storm left over, and actually might see more sun than clouds for a change, not many days like that lately. 



And Saturday actually looks sunny, hot and dry. High should get into upper 80's, Low staying in the lower 60's.



For Sunday we bring back a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, High up near 90, Low in upper 60's. This pattern hints at a mesoscale convective system being possible Sunday or Sunday night, but this time of year, you can't get too hung up on vague possibilities like that. It could happen in this pattern, where we have moisture coming down the pike from the Northwest. So don't let it worry you or anything if you're fatigued by all the storms lately, but someone could get a strong storm or storm cluster Sunday evening or night if this guidance turns out to be right. Even if so, no way to pinpoint who at this point, might not even affect North Alabama or into Tennessee, adjacent counties. Tends to be random where the storms of summer move through the region. Or at least it seems random since we don't fully understand it. 



With the pattern Monday, I think there may be something to the idea of an overnight MCS between Sunday and Monday. It just has that feel to it, that it's possible somewhere in the region. 


The ECMWF has us covered up in rain on Monday. 

But I'm going to defer to climatology a little bit and my past experience of similar looks to this. And only increase the rain chance to 40%. I know it's been a crazy summer so far, but I'm still going with the probability that the rain chances will probably be a little lower, closer to what the GFS is showing. This is a weak frontal boundary moving into the region on Monday, and I just don't see it producing this much rain. Even if it does, it's too early to forecast that, when usually climatology beats the models this time of year. We're still looking at a High in the upper 80's and a Low near 70, so rain chance should be more like 30-40%. 



Then on Tuesday as that strong High pressure settles in behind the front from the West, we should have a High in the upper 80's, Low in upper 60's, so pretty seasonable temperatures, and can trim the rain chance also back to a seasonable 20%. 



Then we'll warm to 90 or so for Wednesday, Low in upper 60's, seems reasonable to keep a 20% chance of rain in there with some moisture showing up at least in Mississippi on model guidance here, plus this time of year, almost every day has some chance of isolated rain or a thunderstorm.



Then on Thursday of next week, basically the same thing. Not ready to say we'll be high and dry everywhere, will keep a 20% chance of rain in there. Should see a High in the lower 90's, Low near 70.



Then we get into the realm of tea leaf reading basically, not as unreliable as the farmer's almanac, but where even in summertime, model guidance can become dubious to worthless. But since a lot of TV stations are persisting with their 10-day-forecasts, I guess I'll try to post one about once a week, and join in the fun. 

If we can put any stock in this at all, next Friday looks hot and dry, High in lower to mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. 

But I'm not sure I buy that yet. May keep a minimal rain chance in and temper temperatures accordingly. 



Have to say though, Saturday also follows that pattern of high pressure and heat building over the Southeast with little to no rain around. So I guess we'd go with mid-90's again if fully buying into this, lower 70's for the Low. 




Then the GFS wants to bring us a deluge on Sunday, which I do not buy. Think I will blanket the previous two days with a 20% rain chance and only increase to 30% for this Sunday which is 
July 2nd. And adjust temperatures according to more rain chances than the modelling is showing. We might get up to mid-90's at some point in the extended forecast, at least the tea leaf portion, but at this point, I think that's a close call. Breaking 90 is high-confidence though, getting at least to 90 degrees. 

Glancing at ECMWF guidance for this crystal-ball or tea-leaf end of the forecast period, I'm definitely including a 20% rain chance for Friday and Saturday, increase only to 30% for Sunday. And not going to go too crazy with the temperatures, but it does look like a hot pattern compared to what we've had for a while now. Maybe all that rain will help us avoid excessive heat in July, like James Spann was talking about a few weeks ago. It's true, the rain stays in the soil enough to temper the heat energy we get on the real dog days of summer.



Tropical Storm Bret has prompted some Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Lesser Antilles, and even a Hurricane Watch for St. Lucia. It is probably going to stay at the upper end of tropical storm strength as it passes over those islands today (Thursday). And then within the next 2-3 days after, it is expected to encounter so much vertical shear from an upper-level trough that it will weaken and probably dissipate before it has a chance to bring mischief to any more land. 


That disturbance behind it is about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. And it is in the process of developing into a tropical depression. It is moving West/Northwest across the Central Tropical Atlantic at 10-15 miles per hour. Glancing at tropical model guidance, I do not see anything that improves upon that general information. 


Average rainfall totals over the next week should average from a half-inch to an inch. Of course, with the random nature of summer convection, one place within the same county could get a really heavy shower or storm while another place barely gets a sprinkle. But showing this because we've had higher than usual rainfalls lately. And now we are going back to what is more usual for this time of year. 


Thanks for reading. See you in the funny papers. 

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