Thursday, June 22, 2023

Tropical Storm Cindy Forms, Moving Northwest Over Open Waters






 000

WTNT34 KNHC 230239

TCPAT4


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023

1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023


...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.7N 45.2W

ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was 

located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 45.2 West. Cindy is 

moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 

general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On 

the forecast track, the system is expected to remain well northeast 

of the northern Leeward Islands through early next week.


Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 

have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 

strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to 

the north of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.


$$

Forecaster Reinhart


000

WTCA44 TJSJ 230257

TCPSP4


BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Cindy Advertencia Número 4

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL042023

Traducción Revisada por el SNM San Juan PR

1100 PM AST jueves 22 de junio de 2023


...TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY SE FORMA SOBRE EL ATLÁNTICO TROPICAL 

CENTRAL...



RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...11.7N 45.2O

ALREDEDOR DE 1110 MI...1785 KM E DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 285 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 

Cindy estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 11.7 Norte, longitud 

45.2 Oeste.  Cindy se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca 

de 14 mph (22 km/h), y se espera que este movimiento general 

continúe durante los próximos días.  En la trayectoria pronosticada, 

se espera que el sistema se mantenga bien al noreste del norte de 

las Islas de Sotavento hasta principios de la próxima semana.


Los datos de vientos derivados de satélites indican que los vientos 

máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con 

ráfagas más fuertes.  Se pronostica algún fortalecimiento durante 

los próximos días.


Vientos de Tormenta Tropical se extienden hasta 60 millas (95 km) al 

norte del centro.


La presión central mínima estimada del avión Caza Huracanes de la 

NOAA es de 1006 milibares...29.71 pulgadas.



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Ninguno



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

La próxima advertencia completa será a las 500 AM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Reinhart


000

WTNT24 KNHC 230238

TCMAT4


TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042023

0300 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  45.2W AT 23/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  45.2W AT 23/0300Z

AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  44.6W


FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.4N  47.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.6N  49.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N  52.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N  54.8W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N  59.9W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.3N  64.4W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  45.2W


NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z


$$

FORECASTER REINHART



000

FONT14 KNHC 230239

PWSAT4


TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042023               

0300 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023                                            


AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR        

LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    

WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               


Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 


CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               


PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           

        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      


PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 



  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   


               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 

  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  

             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED


FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

LOCATION       KT                                                   


SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)


BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)


$$                                                                  

FORECASTER REINHART


000

WTNT44 KNHC 230241

TCDAT4


Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023

1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023


The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this 

evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past 

several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES 

proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data 

indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold 

dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of 

30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which 

supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this 

advisory.


Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, 

modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone 

moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear 

during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move 

under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the 

central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing 

deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the 

small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC 

forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5.


Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is 

expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next 

several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its 

northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the 

northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement, 

and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model 

consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  23/0300Z 11.7N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  23/1200Z 12.4N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  24/0000Z 13.6N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  52.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  25/0000Z 16.7N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  25/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  26/0000Z 19.8N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  27/0000Z 22.3N  64.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  28/0000Z 24.6N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$

Forecaster Reinhart

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