000
WTNT34 KNHC 230239
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 45.2 West. Cindy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system is expected to remain well northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands through early next week.
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
000
WTCA44 TJSJ 230257
TCPSP4
BOLETÍN
Tormenta Tropical Cindy Advertencia Número 4
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL042023
Traducción Revisada por el SNM San Juan PR
1100 PM AST jueves 22 de junio de 2023
...TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY SE FORMA SOBRE EL ATLÁNTICO TROPICAL
CENTRAL...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...11.7N 45.2O
ALREDEDOR DE 1110 MI...1785 KM E DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 285 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical
Cindy estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 11.7 Norte, longitud
45.2 Oeste. Cindy se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca
de 14 mph (22 km/h), y se espera que este movimiento general
continúe durante los próximos días. En la trayectoria pronosticada,
se espera que el sistema se mantenga bien al noreste del norte de
las Islas de Sotavento hasta principios de la próxima semana.
Los datos de vientos derivados de satélites indican que los vientos
máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica algún fortalecimiento durante
los próximos días.
Vientos de Tormenta Tropical se extienden hasta 60 millas (95 km) al
norte del centro.
La presión central mínima estimada del avión Caza Huracanes de la
NOAA es de 1006 milibares...29.71 pulgadas.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
La próxima advertencia completa será a las 500 AM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Reinhart
000
WTNT24 KNHC 230238
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042023
0300 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 45.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 45.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.4N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.6N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N 54.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 59.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 45.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
000
FONT14 KNHC 230239
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042023
0300 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
000
WTNT44 KNHC 230241
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this
evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past
several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES
proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data
indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold
dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of
30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which
supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this
advisory.
Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment,
modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone
moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear
during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move
under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the
central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing
deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the
small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC
forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5.
Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next
several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its
northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement,
and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model
consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 11.7N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 12.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 13.6N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.7N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 22.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 24.6N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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