Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Few More Thunderstorms Possible Tonight and Tomorrow, Rain Chances Diminishing Over Weekend and Next Week

(Forecast)

Tonight (Low 70): Showers and thunderstorms likely around Midnight and the wee hours of the morning. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Tomorrow (High 85): Gradually decreasing clouds throughout the day. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are still possible, better chances in the morning hours. 

Friday (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday (High 90, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

(Extended Outlook)

Sunday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 89, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 87, Low 68): Partly to mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 88, Low 65): Mostly sunny. 

(Beach Forecast)

Thursday (High 91, Low 84): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 92, Low 83): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday/Sunday (High 93, Low 83): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Discussion)

So we had a day with a lot of sunshine at first, but it turned stormy this afternoon and evening, with a few storms in the region producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some of that activity is still going on in Central Alabama. 

Had quite a few trees down in Blount and Marion Counties in Alabama, some large hail also in Blount County near Smoke Rise. Many trees down also across Tennessee, mainly in Shelby, Hardin, and Lawrence Counties. Also trees down through Corinth, Mississippi. 







The High was 82, and the Low was 64 in Cullman. It got up to 90 degrees in Jasper after a Low of 66. Haleyville saw a High of 83 and Low of 65. 


The GFS is not showing much moisture around tomorrow. 


The NAM appears to have a better handle on things. Looks like about a 50/50 shot of showers/thunderstorms tomorrow. High in mid-80's, about 85, Low near 70. 





You may have noticed that other Mesoscale Convective System back in Missouri and Arkansas, along the state line there tonight. The chance of any of those storms sustaining and remaining severe as they move into our area later tonight (around midnight) is low, but not zero. They will probably weaken below severe limits before they get here, but this is why I advised a Weather Radio or a good radio station for tonight. I've just about lost faith in all the local radio stations, so if you have to resort to that to wake you up, I'd use the classic stations, NPR, 89.3 FM for Huntsville area, 90.3 FM for Birmingham area. The music is easy to sleep to, and that EAS tone they sound for severe weather warnings is not easy to sleep through. The Arab transmitter did come back online today, but the Cullman one stayed down. If you're lucky and have good reception, you can maybe pick up the Arab transmitter from Cullman County. If you're in Winston or Walker County, I'd use Channel 6, the Winfield transmitter down that way. If you can get good reception from it. 


Again on Friday the GFS has us surprisingly dry. 


And the NAM looks more realistic. Will bring the rain chance back down to a more standard 30%. High should be up near 90 again, or close, upper 80's at least, Low near 70.



Then by Saturday it makes sense for the GFS to show a drier look, as that heat bubble out West starts to expand toward our region. And I'm going to go ahead and bring the rain chance down to 20%, just isolated showers and thunderstorms, but more heat and humidity, seasonable, High near 90, Low near 70 again.



And that trend continues for Sunday, same basic forecast. 



Monday a front will be approaching the region, but that high pressure is kind of at a standoff with it, so will increase rain chance to only 30% instead of 20%. Temperatures should stay about the same, but maybe allowing a degree or two difference with the slightly higher rain chance. 



Then it looks like we actually have the frontal boundary passing through here on Tuesday. Because of what we've seen so far this summer, I think this may actually verify. And I'm going to take rain chances out of the forecast. High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's, somewhat drier air. 



And then next Wednesday, a week from today, we may very well see mostly sunshine, drier air, High in upper 80's, Low only in the mid-60's. 



Hurricane Dora passed several hundred miles South of Hawaii, but its wind fields combined with very dry conditions may have contributed to the wildfires going on in Maui. I'm not sure what side of that tradeoff people should want, either a major hurricane or wildfires. I'd personally prefer the hurricane. I really don't know what they have in place in Hawaii for sheltering. I know it is awesome in Bermuda. They have public shelters for residents and visitors and tend to have minimal problems even when a major hurricane hits the island. I wish we had that level of concern in the Southeastern United States for tornado season, where everybody had access to adequate shelter. But we've still got a long way to go on that. Maybe it is easier on an island. 


Most of us will probably get about an inch or two of rainfall totals out of this forecast period, but most of that will be early in the period. As we get into the middle of next week, rain chances should be minimal. Most of the rain will actually be tonight through tomorrow. 

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