000
WTNT33 KNHC 062044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023
...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
BY EARLY SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 46.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Lee is expected to become a major hurricane in a day
or two.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
848
WTCA43 TJSJ 062054 RRA
TCPSP3
BOLETÍN
Huracan Lee Advertencia Número 6
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL132023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
500 PM AST miércoles 06 de septiembre de 2023
...LEE SE FORTALECE EN UN HURACÁN...
...PROBABLEMENTE SE INTENSIFIQUE EN UN HURACÁN INTENSO
EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO TEMPRANO EL SÁBADO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...14.9N 46.4O
ALREDEDOR DE 1130 MI...1815 KM E DEL NORTE DE LAS LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...991 MB...29.27 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
Intereses en el norte de las Islas de Sotavento deberán monitorear
el progreso de este sistema.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba
localizado cerca de la latitud 14.9 norte, longitud 46.4 oeste. Lee
se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 14 mph (22
km/h), y se espera que este movimiento continúe durante los próximos
días con una ligera reducción en la velocidad de traslación durante
el fin de semana.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 75 mph (120
km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento
continuo de manera constante a rápida, y se espera que Lee se
convierta en un huracán mayor en un día o dos.
Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 15 millas (30
km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se
extienden hasta 90 millas (150 km) del centro.
La presión mínima central estimada es de 991 mb (29.27 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de
Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado
WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen
sectores de las Antillas Menores el viernes, y alcancen las Islas
Vírgenes Británicas y de los Estados Unidos y Puerto Rico este fin
de semana. Es probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de
oleaje y corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar
los productos de su oficina local de meteorología.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
La próxima advertencia completa será a las 1100 PM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Brown
000
WTNT43 KNHC 062046
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023
Lee has continued to quickly organize today. Convective banding,
especially over the eastern semicircle of the storm, has increased
since this morning. The center is embedded within a small central
dense overcast, and earlier this afternoon there was a hint of a
ragged eye in visible imagery. Although subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were still T3.5 (55 kt) and
most of the objective estimate are slightly below hurricane
strength, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt based
on the continued improvement in organization this afternoon, and
the presence of a mid-level eye in a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass. Lee becomes the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic
hurricane season.
Recent satellite fixes suggest that Lee took a northwestward jog
this afternoon, however the longer-term motion is still
west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located
to the north of Lee should continue to steer the cyclone on a
west-northwestward heading through the weekend. Near the end of
the forecast period, Lee will be approaching the western periphery
of the ridge and the forward motion of the cyclone is likely to
slow at that time. The dynamical model guidance continues to
indicate that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, however interests in those islands
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as the typical
three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi. The NHC track
forecast is again along the southern side of the guidance
envelope, between the faster and farther south HFIP corrected
consensus model, and the TVCA multi-model consensus aid. The
updated track foreast is slightly north of the previous advisory
primarily due to the more northward initial position, and it is a
little slower than the previous forecast to be closer to the
latest consensus aids.
The light to moderate east-northeasterly shear over Lee is forecast
to decrease overnight, and that along with warm SSTs and a moist
atmosphere along the forecast track should allow for additional
intensification. With the small inner core seen in microwave
imagery and favorable environmental conditions, a period of rapid
strengthening is a distinct possibility within the next day or two.
Although the exact timing of any rapid strengthening is tricky to
anticipate, the official forecast calls for a substantial 65-kt
increase in strength during the next 72 hours. This is similar to
the previous forecast, and is near the upper end of the intensity
guidance. By later in the weekend, hard-to-predict eyewall
replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and
could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of
these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.
2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 20.4N 59.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.9N 62.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 23.0N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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