Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Hurricane Lee



 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 062044

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023


...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE 

BY EARLY SATURDAY...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W

ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the

progress of this system.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 46.4 West. Lee is moving toward

the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction

in forward speed over the weekend.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Continued steady to rapid strengthening is

forecast, and Lee is expected to become a major hurricane in a day 

or two. 


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

(150 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of

the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. 

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are 

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  

Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster Brown


848 

WTCA43 TJSJ 062054 RRA

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Huracan Lee Advertencia Número   6

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL       AL132023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR

500 PM AST miércoles 06 de septiembre de 2023


...LEE SE FORTALECE EN UN HURACÁN...

...PROBABLEMENTE SE INTENSIFIQUE EN UN HURACÁN INTENSO 

EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO TEMPRANO EL SÁBADO...



RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...14.9N 46.4O

ALREDEDOR DE 1130 MI...1815 KM E DEL NORTE DE LAS LAS ANTILLAS MENORES

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...991 MB...29.27 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


Intereses en el norte de las Islas de Sotavento deberán monitorear 

el progreso de este sistema.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba 

localizado cerca de la latitud 14.9 norte, longitud 46.4 oeste. Lee 

se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 14 mph (22 

km/h), y se espera que este movimiento continúe durante los próximos 

días con una ligera reducción en la velocidad de traslación durante 

el fin de semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 75 mph (120 

km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento 

continuo de manera constante a rápida, y se espera que Lee se 

convierta en un huracán mayor en un día  o dos. 


Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 15 millas (30 

km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se 

extienden hasta 90 millas (150 km) del centro.


La presión mínima central estimada es de 991 mb (29.27 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de 

Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado 

WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen 

sectores de las Antillas Menores el viernes, y alcancen las Islas 

Vírgenes Británicas y de los Estados Unidos y Puerto Rico este fin 

de semana.  Es probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de 

oleaje y corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar 

los productos de su oficina local de meteorología.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

La próxima advertencia completa será a las 1100 PM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Brown


000

WTNT43 KNHC 062046

TCDAT3


Hurricane Lee Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023


Lee has continued to quickly organize today. Convective banding,

especially over the eastern semicircle of the storm, has increased

since this morning.  The center is embedded within a small central

dense overcast, and earlier this afternoon there was a hint of a 

ragged eye in visible imagery.  Although subjective Dvorak 

intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were still T3.5 (55 kt) and 

most of the objective estimate are slightly below hurricane 

strength, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt based 

on the continued improvement in organization this afternoon, and 

the presence of a mid-level eye in a recent SSMIS microwave 

overpass. Lee becomes the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic 

hurricane season. 


Recent satellite fixes suggest that Lee took a northwestward jog 

this afternoon, however the longer-term motion is still 

west-northwestward at about 12 kt.  A mid-level ridge located 

to the north of Lee should continue to steer the cyclone on a

west-northwestward heading through the weekend.  Near the end of

the forecast period, Lee will be approaching the western periphery

of the ridge and the forward motion of the cyclone is likely to 

slow at that time.  The dynamical model guidance continues to

indicate that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the

northern Leeward Islands, however interests in those islands

should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as the typical

three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi.  The NHC track 

forecast is again along the southern side of the guidance 

envelope, between the faster and farther south HFIP corrected 

consensus model, and the TVCA multi-model consensus aid.  The 

updated track foreast is slightly north of the previous advisory 

primarily due to the more northward initial position, and it is a 

little slower than the previous forecast to be closer to the 

latest consensus aids. 


The light to moderate east-northeasterly shear over Lee is forecast 

to decrease overnight, and that along with warm SSTs and a moist 

atmosphere along the forecast track should allow for additional 

intensification. With the small inner core seen in microwave 

imagery and favorable environmental conditions, a period of rapid 

strengthening is a distinct possibility within the next day or two.  

Although the exact timing of any rapid strengthening is tricky to 

anticipate, the official forecast calls for a substantial 65-kt 

increase in strength during the next 72 hours.  This is similar to 

the previous forecast, and is near the upper end of the intensity 

guidance.  By later in the weekend, hard-to-predict eyewall 

replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and

could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.

While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of

these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the

progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.


2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands 

and Puerto Rico this weekend.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  06/2100Z 14.9N  46.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  07/0600Z 15.6N  48.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 16.5N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  08/0600Z 17.5N  53.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  08/1800Z 18.6N  55.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  09/0600Z 19.6N  57.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

 72H  09/1800Z 20.4N  59.4W  130 KT 150 MPH

 96H  10/1800Z 21.9N  62.9W  130 KT 150 MPH

120H  11/1800Z 23.0N  65.2W  125 KT 145 MPH


$$

Forecaster Brown

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