Thursday, September 7, 2023

Mild and Dry Pattern Through Early Next Week

(Forecast)

Friday (High 82, Low 59): Sunny. Mild and dry.

Saturday (High 82, Low 60): Mostly sunny. Mild and dry.

Sunday (High 83, Low 61): Sunny. Mild and dry. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 86, Low 63): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 85, Low 65): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday (High 82, Low 64): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 83, Low 63): Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 80, Low 60): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 78, Low 57): Sunny.

Sunday (High 81, Low 59): Mostly sunny. 

(Beach Forecast)

Friday (High 90, Low 77): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 75): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 75): Sunny.

Monday and Tuesday (High in upper 80's, Low in upper 70's): Sunny.

Wednesday and Thursday (High in upper 80's, Low in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 82, Mínima 59): Soleado. Suave y seco.

Sábado (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado. Suave y seco.

Domingo (Máxima 83, Mínima 61): Soleado. Suave y seco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 86, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 65): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica.

Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 64): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 83, Mínima 63): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.

(Territorio de las Hojas de Té)

Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 78, Mínima 57): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 81, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Viernes (Máxima 90, Mínima 77): Mayormente soleado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada.

Sábado (Máxima 89, Mínima 75): Mayormente soleado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 75): Soleado.

Lunes y Martes (Máxima en los 80 grados superiores, Mínima en los 70 grados superiores): Soleado.

Miércoles y Jueves (Máxima en los 80 grados superiores, Mínima en los 70 grados superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has scheduled some SKYWARN classes ahead of November, which is often a secondary peak in our severe weather in North Alabama and also up into Tennessee. 

It is a good time to make sure you're prepared for a hurricane, if you'll be near any of the coastal areas.  more likely hazard at the beaches, though, is rip currents, which can happen even without a hurricane or tropical storm nearby. 

If anybody finds mistakes in the meteorology or the attempts at Spanish, always welcome to leave me a comment and get in touch. When I do this, I'd rather do it right. 

(Discussion)






Skies are partly to mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley at 1 PM. It is 81 degrees in Cullman. The dewpoint is 68, making the relative humidity 66%. Winds are from the Northwest at 8 miles per hour. Barometric pressure is 29.99 inches and steady. 

It is 82 degrees in Jasper with a dewpoint of 70, so there too the relative humidity is 66%. Wind direction has been more variable there so far today, currently at 3 mph. Pressure is 29.96 inches and falling slowly.

Haleyville has more sunshine, less cloud cover, than the other two sites, 81 degrees there, dewpoint of 65, relative humidity of only 58%. Winds variable at 5 mph. The pressure is 30.00 inches or 1014.4 millibars and falling slowly. 

That cold front is still working its way through our region. But the storms have shifted over into Georgia. We got ours over with last night. 


And some of our storms yesterday did verify as being severe, besides back in Mississippi and Arkansas. There was severe hail reported near Huntsville. And in Morgan County, there was damage to the roof of a home from some thunderstorm winds. That happened near the intersection of Highway 36 and County Road 30 about 10 miles West of Hartselle. 



Tomorrow sunny skies are expected as our upper-level winds shift to the North behind the front. Should see a High of about 82, morning Low near 60, a few places may actually see it dip into upper 50's. Been a while since we've had that. 



Basically the same for Saturday, might see a few more clouds around. 



And not much change for Sunday, mostly sunshine and a High in lower 80's, Low in lower 60's.



But then on Monday the upper-air pattern does start to change, with those winds more zonal from the West. And we'll stay mostly sunny but warm to about the mid-80's, could see upper 80's here and there, Low staying in the lower 60's with the air still pretty dry that morning. 



The guidance is coming in drier for Tuesday now, could still see an isolated shower or thunderstorm somewhere on the map, might barely be worth mentioning in forecast, but the chance 20% at most. We'll be getting some Southwest winds aloft either way, which brings us some Gulf moisture and a few more clouds. So the High probably mid-80's, Low more toward mid-60's by this time. 


And actually it's looking like we have another cool front moving in by Wednesday. So the best plan at this point is probably a 20% chance of rain Tuesday and a 40% chance Wednesday. The High for Wednesday could drop as low as 79-80, but I'm leaning more toward lower 80's. The Low should be in lower to mid-60's. And we can see Hurricane Lee there in the Atlantic, should be a major hurricane by then. 



And it looks like the front sort of stalls out on Thursday, so again, lower 80's for the High, lower/mid-60's for the Low, about a 30-40% chance of rain or thunderstorms. 

Looks like drier air moves in behind the front on Friday, as we go into basically the land of tea leaves, but a lot of people are doing 10-day outlooks now. Doing the next 7-days is challenging enough to get right. But we'll see the best we can do with a 10-Day here. The high pressure intensifies over the region on Saturday the 16th. So we'll be sunny, probably a High near 80 or so, lower 80's, Low down near 60. Although at this time range, pinpointing exact temperatures is more of a gamble. Even if not all meteorologists will admit that. 



But if the GFS has it right for this woo-woo-land, then we should stay dry Sunday as well, High in lower 80's, Low of 60 or so. 


There is disagreement between the GFS and the ECMWF as to where Hurricane Lee tracks in the long range. The graphic above is valid Friday September 15th at 18Z or 1 PM CDT. So I'm not going to tell people on the East Coast of the U.S. to not worry about this storm just yet. It is most likely to take that northerly track and miss the U.S. mainland, but I feel like it is too soon to make that call. If I lived along the East Coast, I would keep an eye on its progress, to be on the safe side. 


So the tropics remain active with Hurricane Lee and with Tropical Depression 14 which has just formed. 



Looks like the tropical depression will strengthen to a hurricane by Sunday but stay over the open waters. 



Hurricane Lee is looking very healthy, and is already becoming a major hurricane today. It should maintain that through Tuesday at least, passing North of the islands like Puerto Rico, but coming close enough to cause some swells and terrible rip currents, dangerous surf conditions, for places like that and the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands. Even Bermuda could see some bad rip currents and swells from this powerful hurricane, which could get to Category 4 or even Category 5 strength at times. And even though the track is looking to go far enough North that places like Puerto Rico probably won't even have tropical storm conditions from it, it would be wise to keep an eye on this thing if you are anywhere near the path. Because any slight change in the track could make a big difference in what kind of weather you get. You've gotta' respect these major hurricanes. And they can throw a curve sometimes even to the best global and tropical computer models. For the most part, go by the official track from the National Hurricane Center, but also keep an eye out in case any of the trends change, because this is a hurricane that means business. If it stays over water and only causes the swells and rip currents, then everybody lucked out, but I think it is good to respect the possibility that it could impact land, even if that's later on, when it's past these islands. I'd be watching it along the East Coast of the U.S. just in case. It looks unlikely that it will have direct, major impacts to land, but with a storm this serious, you can't count on that. Have to respect its potential to throw a curveball and surprise us. So whether you're in Puerto Rico or nearby islands or along the East Coast, I would be prepared just in case this were to come closer to land than is currently expected. The chance of that is low, but if it were to happen, the impacts could be significant for anyone caught totally unprepared. So I'd prepare for that low probability to be on the safe side, and then if the most likely scenario plays out, where it is not directly hitting any land, then hey, that's great. But with a storm this powerful, I don't want to tell anybody, "Don't worry about it." - too soon. No need to get overly worried, but just have the hurricane safety plan ready to go, or whatever you'd do if you only got tropical storm level impacts. To be on the safe side. And then if things go as smoothly as most model trends currently suggest they will, then no harm was done by having a plan in case things did not turn out as well. 


Rainfall amounts around here, probably only a quarter-inch or a tenth of an inch or less on average for this forecast period. I'm thinking about trending the temperatures down behind the front next week, maybe Highs dipping into upper 70's. If that happens, that's really our first taste of it feeling like Fall. 

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