Friday, September 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee is a Category Five Already


This extremely powerful hurricane has winds of 165 miles per hour. It looks like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and other islands near there will "only" get swells and very dangerous rip currents from it, the track is far enough North. But folks on the East Coast of the United States will want to watch its progress to be on the safe side. Most model guidance has wanted to move it North and keep it East of the mainland, but some guidance also shows it slowing down in the Atlantic as it gets close to land. And just from past experience, I think it would be a mistake to get overconfident in its exact track this far in advance. Let's just keep an eye on it and see what it does, and where the models trend as it moves along. For now the news is good for those islands not taking a direct hit. We'll see if the luck holds for all the land this thing may come close to later. 

450 

WTNT33 KNHC 080838

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023


...POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LEE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.8N 53.5W

ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 53.5 West. Lee is moving toward

the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is

expected to continue through early next week with a significant

decrease in forward speed.  On the forecast track, Lee is expected

to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the

Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early

next week.


Maximum sustained winds based on data from the Air Force Reserve 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased to near 165 mph (270 

km/h) with higher gusts.  Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is 

forecast today.  Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 

few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through 

early next week.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles later today, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and

rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast

beginning Sunday.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi


000

WTCA43 TJSJ 080931

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Huracán Lee Advertencia Número  12

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL       AL132023 

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 

500 AM AST viernes 8 de septiembre de 2023 


...SE ESPERA QUE EL PODEROSO CATEGORÍA 5 LEE MANTENGA SU 

INTENSIDAD...

...SE ESPERA QUE CONDICIONES DE PLAYA PELIGROSAS SE DESARROLLEN 

ALREDEDOR DEL OESTE DEL ATLÁNTICO HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PRÓXIMA 

SEMANA...  



RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...17.8N 53.5O

ALREDEDOR DE 630 MI...1015 KM E DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE 

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MPH...270 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...926 MB...27.35 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba 

localizado cerca de la latitud 17.8 norte, longitud 53.5 oeste. Lee 

se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 14 mph (22 km/h) 

y se espera que este movimiento continúe hasta principios de la 

próxima semana con una disminución significativa en la velocidad de 

traslación. En la trayectoria pronosticada, se espera que Lee pase 

bien al norte de las Islas de Sotavento del norte, las Islas 

Vírgenes y Puerto Rico durante el fin de semana y hasta principios 

de la próxima semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos basados en los datos del avión 

Cazahuracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea han aumentado a cerca 

de 165 mph (270 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Lee es un huracán 

de categoría 5 en la Escala de Vientos de Huracanes de 

Saffir-Simpson. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional hoy.  

Las fluctuaciones en la intensidad son probables durante los 

próximos días, pero se espera que Lee permanezca como un huracán 

intenso hasta principios de la próxima semana.


Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 45 millas (75 

km) del centro, y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical 

extienden hasta 140 millas (220 km).


La presión central mínima estimada es de 926 mb (27.35 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de 

Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado 

WTNT43 KNHC de OMM y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen 

sectores de las Antillas Menores más tarde hoy, y alcancen las Islas 

Vírgenes Británicas y Estadounidenses, Puerto Rico, La Española, las 

Islas Turcas y Caicos, las Bahamas y Bermuda este fin de semana. Es 

probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y 

corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida. Se espera que las olas 

rompientes y las corrientes marinas peligrosas comiencen a lo largo 

de la mayor parte de la Costa Este de los Estados Unidos comenzando 

el domingo. Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina local de 

meteorología.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi


788 

WTNT43 KNHC 080839

TCDAT3


Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023


Lee remains an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane.  Satellite 

images indicate that Lee has a symmetric inner core with a 10 n mi 

circular and clear eye and no indications of concentric eyewalls 

forming yet.  Although the hurricane is incredibly powerful, its 

wind field is not particularly large with its tropical-storm-force 

winds extending roughly 100 n mi from the center. The Air Force 

Hurricane Hunters investigated Lee earlier this morning and found 

that the pressure has fallen to about 926 mb, based on dropsonde 

data.  In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind reported 

was 153 kt and maximum surface SFMR wind was 158 kt, but this 

estimate could be inflated.  Blending these measurements, the 

initial wind speed is nudged upward to 145 kt.  Both the NOAA and 

Air Force Hurricane Hunters will further investigate Lee in a couple 

of hours.


Since Lee is expected to remain in favorable atmospheric conditions 

while moving over even warmer waters during the next couple of days, 

it seems likely that the hurricane will at least maintain its 

intensity or become a little stronger during that time.  The 

dominant factor for Lee's short term intensity will be internal 

dynamics, like eyewall replacement cycles.  These conditions will 

often cause fluctuations in the hurricane's strength, which are 

challenging to forecast.  There likely will be some weakening beyond 

a few days when Lee moves over somewhat cooler waters and into an 

environment of slightly higher shear.  Regardless of the details, 

Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next 

several days.


The major hurricane has been on a steady west-northwest path during 

the past couple of days as it has been steered by the flow on the 

south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  A 

continued west-northwest motion is expected, but at a progressively 

slower pace during the forecast period as the ridge to the north of 

the system weakens.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and 

little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.


Lee is expected to increase in size and become more symmetric over 

the weekend and early next week as the hurricane slows down. Recent 

wave altimeter data showed peak significant wave heights between 45 

and 50 feet near the center.  Dangerously high seas are expected to 

continue near the core of the hurricane, and large swells will 

spread well away from the system through the forecast period.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Lee is a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further

strengthening is possible.  Lee's core is expected to move well

north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and

Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.


2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in

the northern Leeward Islands beginning later today.  These

conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto

Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda

through the weekend.


3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee

might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda

late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to

slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,

dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.

East Coast beginning Sunday.  Continue to monitor updates to Lee's

forecast during the next several days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  08/0900Z 17.8N  53.5W  145 KT 165 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z 18.6N  55.1W  155 KT 180 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z 19.6N  57.1W  150 KT 175 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z 20.5N  58.8W  145 KT 165 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z 21.2N  60.2W  145 KT 165 MPH

 60H  10/1800Z 21.9N  61.5W  140 KT 160 MPH

 72H  11/0600Z 22.4N  62.7W  135 KT 155 MPH

 96H  12/0600Z 23.3N  65.1W  130 KT 150 MPH

120H  13/0600Z 24.4N  67.1W  120 KT 140 MPH


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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