Monday, September 11, 2023

Hurricane Lee Fluctuating In Intensity, Expected To Turn North



 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 110851

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  24

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023


...LARGE LEE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES

ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.1N 62.6W

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 62.6 West. Lee is moving toward

the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwestward

motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a

gradual turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,

Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,

the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.


Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 

Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 

day or so, followed by gradual weakening.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser

Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to

affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions

are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast

during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your

local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.


$$

Forecaster Reinhart


000

WTCA43 TJSJ 110855 RRA

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Huracán Lee Advertencia Número 24

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL132023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR

500 AM AST lunes 11 de septiembre de 2023


...LEE PERMANECE COMO UN HURACÁN INTENSO...

..SE ESPERAN LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL OLEAJE Y LAS CONDICIONES 

ACTUALES MARINAS PELIGROSAS EN LAS PLAYAS A TRAVÉS DEL OESTE DEL 

ATLÁNTICO DURANTE LA SEMANA...  


RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...23.1N 62.6O

ALREDEDOR DE 340 MI...545 KM N DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO

ALREDEDOR DE 650 MI...1045 KM SSE DE BERMUDA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 310 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...950 MB...28.06 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba 

localizado cerca de la latitud 23.1 norte, longitud 62.6 oeste.  Lee 

se está moviendo hacia el noroeste a cerca de 7 mph (11 km/h).  Se 

espera un movimiento lento hacia el oeste-noroeste durante los 

próximos días, seguido de un giro gradual hacia el norte a mediados 

de la semana. En la trayectoria pronosticada, se espera que Lee 

pase bien al norte del norte de las Islas de Sotavento, las Islas 

Vírgenes y Puerto Rico durante el próximo día o dos.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están a cerca de 120 mph (195 km/h) 

con ráfagas más fuertes. Lee es un huracán de categoría 3 en la 

Escala de Viento de Huracanes de Saffir-Simpson. Se pronostica 

algún fortalecimiento adicional durante el próximo  día más o menos, 

seguido de un debilitamiento gradual.


Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 75 millas (120 

km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se 

extienden hasta 185 millas (295 km).


La presión mínima central estimada es de 950 mb (28.06 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de 

Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado 

WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


OLEAJE: Las marejadas generadas por Lee están afectando sectores de 

las Antillas Menores, las Islas Vírgenes Británicas y 

Estadounidenses, Puerto Rico, La Española, las Islas Turcas y 

Caicos, las Bahamas y Bermuda. Es probable que estas marejadas 

causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas que amenacen la 

vida.  Las olas y las corrientes marinas peligrosas han comenzado a 

afectar sectores de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos, y se 

pronostica que estas condiciones se extiendan hacia el norte a lo 

largo de gran parte de la Costa Este de los Estados Unidos durante 

los próximos días.  Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina 

local de meteorología.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 11:00 AM AST.


000

WTNT43 KNHC 110852

TCDAT3


Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  24

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023


The eye of the hurricane became more ragged and less distinct

overnight, but in recent satellite images there appears to be some

warming near the center once again. A 0619 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass

showed the eyewall was open to the south, but a new convective burst

is currently wrapping around the western portion of the eyewall. The

latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have

leveled off due to recent fluctuations in the structure of the

hurricane. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is

consistent with the earlier aircraft data. This intensity also lies

between the latest subjective Dvorak data-T and current intensity

estimates from TAFB and SAB that range from 90-115 kt.


Lee is moving slowly northwestward (310/6 kt) while being steered by

a mid-level ridge over the western and central subtropical Atlantic.

A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should continue

for the next day or two before a deep-layer trough moves across the

eastern U.S. and begins eroding the steering ridge by midweek. This

should allow Lee to gradually turn northward by 72 h. The guidance

is in good agreement through midweek with little cross-track spread

noted, and the updated NHC forecast lies just a bit right of the

previous prediction. This takes the core of Lee to the west of

Bermuda, although its expanding tropical-storm-force wind field

could bring some impacts to the island during the latter part of the

week. On days 4-5, Lee should continue moving generally northward

with a ridge positioned to its east. For this portion of the

forecast, the NHC prediction was adjusted slightly west, keeping the

forecast track near the center of the guidance envelope and in best

agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid.


In the near term, very warm SSTs of 29-30C and weaker deep-layer 

shear appear conducive for at least modest strengthening of the 

hurricane, although inner-core structural changes and bouts of dry 

air entrainment could cause some short-term intensity fluctuations. 

Most of the intensity models support an intensity peak within the 

next day or so, and this is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. 

Thereafter, the large wind field and slow motion of Lee could cause 

upwelling of cooler waters. In addition, the hurricane is likely to 

encounter increasing southwesterly shear from the aforementioned 

trough later in the period, as well as the cool wake left behind by 

recent western Atlantic hurricanes (Idalia and Franklin). All of 

these factors point toward weakening later this week, and the NHC 

forecast follows the IVCN and HCCA trends with gradual weakening 

beyond 48 h. Although the peak winds are forecast to decrease, the 

outer wind field is expected to expand as the hurricane interacts 

with the upper trough and gains latitude over the western Atlantic, 

with strong winds extending far from the center of the cyclone.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect

portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto

Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and

Bermuda through much of the week.


2. Lee could bring wind, rainfall, and high surf impacts to

Bermuda later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the

specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda

should monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.


3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any,

Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada late

this week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow

down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,

dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.

East Coast this week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to

monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  11/0900Z 23.1N  62.6W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  11/1800Z 23.5N  63.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  12/0600Z 24.0N  64.8W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  12/1800Z 24.5N  65.8W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  13/0600Z 25.1N  66.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  13/1800Z 26.1N  67.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  14/0600Z 27.6N  67.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  15/0600Z 31.8N  67.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  16/0600Z 37.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH


$$

Forecaster Reinhart

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