Thursday, September 7, 2023

Hurricane Lee Strengthening

 



232 

WTNT33 KNHC 071458

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023


...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W

ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the

progress of Lee.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 50.0 West. Lee is moving toward

the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is 

expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the

west-northwest is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track,

the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward islands

during the next few days.


Maximum sustained have quickly increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)

with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected today and

tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later today. Lee

is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane through the

weekend


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

(150 km).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of

the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda

this weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky


571 

WTCA43 TJSJ 071509

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Huracán Lee Advertencia Número  9

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST jueves 07 de septiembre de 2023


...LEE FORTALECIÉNDOSE RÁPIDAMENTE...

...ES PROBABLE QUE MAREJADAS GRANDES ALCANZEN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES, 

LAS ISLAS VÍRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTE FIN DE SEMANA...



RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...16.4N 50.0O

ALREDEDOR DE 870 MI...1405 KM E DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


Los intereses en las Islas de Sotavento del norte deben monitorear 

el progreso de Lee.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba 

localizado cerca de la latitud 16.4 Norte, longitud 50.0 Oeste. Lee 

se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 15 mph (24 

km/h), y se espera que este movimiento continúe hasta el viernes. Se 

pronostica un movimiento más lento hacia el oeste-noroeste durante 

el fin de semana. En la trayectoria pronosticada, el centro de Lee 

se moverá al norte de las islas de Sotavento del norte durante los 

próximos días.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado rápidamente a cerca de 

105 mph (165 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera una 

intensificación rápida hoy y esta noche. Es probable que Lee se 

convierta en un huracán intenso más tarde hoy.  Se pronostica que 

Lee permanezca como un huracán intenso muy fuerte hasta el fin de 

semana.


Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 25 millas (35 

km) desde centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se 

extienden hasta 90 millas (150 km).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de 

Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado 

WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen 

sectores de las Antillas Menores el viernes, y alcancen las Islas 

Vírgenes Británicas y de los Estados Unidos, Puerto Rico, La 

Española, las Bahamas y Bermuda este fin de semana. Es probable que 

estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas 

que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina 

local de meteorología.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.


$$

Pronosticador D. Zelinsky


000

WTNT43 KNHC 071459

TCDAT3


Hurricane Lee Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023


Lee is rapidly intensifying. Early this morning, a well-defined

low-to mid-level eye was observed in microwave imagery, a signal

that is often a precursor rapid intensification (RI). Since then,

Lee has developed an eye in visible and infrared imagery, with

subjective Dvorak Data-T estimates quickly increasing to as high as

5.5 during the past hour or so. Satellite classifications supported

an intensity of around 80 kt at 1200 UTC, but given the significant

improvement in Lee's appearance since then, the advisory intensity

is set at 90 kt.


The track guidance remains in very good agreement on the forecast

for Lee through the weekend and confidence in the track forecast is

high. Lee should continue west-northwestward, gradually slowing its

forward speed, moving along the southern periphery of a subtropical

ridge over the central Atlantic. Confidence continues to increase

that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though

swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting

tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little

higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being

farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made

to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple

consensus aids.


As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. The

question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how

strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the

models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond

rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast

Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings

the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity

forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually

within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal

dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the

maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This

is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are

beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter

aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and

overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about

Lee's intensity during the coming days.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, with

its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin

Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. The

potential for tropical storm conditions to occur in the islands is

decreasing, but residents there should continue to monitor updates

on Lee.


2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,

Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  07/1500Z 16.4N  50.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 17.1N  51.7W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 18.2N  54.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 19.2N  56.1W  140 KT 160 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z 20.1N  58.1W  140 KT 160 MPH

 60H  10/0000Z 20.9N  59.8W  135 KT 155 MPH

 72H  10/1200Z 21.5N  61.2W  135 KT 155 MPH

 96H  11/1200Z 22.6N  63.7W  125 KT 145 MPH

120H  12/1200Z 23.6N  66.0W  120 KT 140 MPH


$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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