Friday, September 29, 2023

Plenty of Sunshine and Mild Temperatures for a While

(Forecast)

Friday (High 85, Low 60): Sunny. Mild.

Saturday (High 86, Low 60): Sunny. Mild.

Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Mostly sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 84, Low 62): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 58): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 82, Low 60): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 80, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 80, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 78, Low 59): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 76, Low 54): Mostly sunny.

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 85, Mínima 60): Soleado. Leve.

Sábado (Máxima 86, Mínima 60): Soleado. Leve.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 84, Mínima 62): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 83, Mínima 58): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado.

Jueves (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Territorio de las Hojas de Té)

Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 78, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 76, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is offering SKYWARN classes ahead of our November peak in severe weather. They are also having Open House on October 14th. 

(Discussion)






Rain has been scarce in the region lately. Overall we had a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with only a few passing clouds at times. A few isolated spots saw a few raindrops, but that's been few and far between lately. The High in Cullman was 81 with a Low of 63 this morning. Jasper got all the way up to 86 but was cooler in the morning, Low of 57 down there. Fort Payne had a High of 82 and Low of 61. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 86 and a Low of 63. Almost forgot Haleyville in the shuffle there, they had a High of 85, Low of 61. Huntsville had a High of 85 and Low of 62 today. Decatur saw a High of 84, Low of 61. Gadsden saw a High of 82, Low of 59. 

Elsewhere around the region, Birmingham had a High of 83 after a morning Low of 65. Atlanta only got up to 77 today after a morning Low of 61. They did have a lot of cloud cover through the day. Nashville was actually one of the places that got some rain and even some thunder earlier today, High of 71 and Low of 65 there. By contrast, Memphis had mostly sunny skies and 91 degrees, morning Low of 71. And over in Tupelo, they got up to 88, morning Low of 68, under sunny skies. 



High pressure will settle into the region tomorrow, and skies will be sunny, not expecting any rain and not many clouds either, High near 85, overnight Low near 60.



If anything the air gets drier over the weekend as the ridge of high pressure amplifies. We'll see sunny skies with a High of about 85 or 86, Low down around 60. 



On Sunday it looks like the core of the high pressure will shift up into the Great Lakes region. Around here, once again mostly sunny skies with a High in the mid-80's and a Low around 60 or so. 




Then in the extended period, on Monday the high pressure center moves into New England. Should stay mostly sunny down here, and guidance is showing a slight decrease in temperatures, maybe more toward lower 80's on Monday for the High, the Low still about the same, lower 60's.



We will be between the ridge and a trough to the West going into Tuesday, and looks like we may get a shot of drier air overnight between Monday and Tuesday, which would allow Lows to fall into the upper 50's, still expecting a High in the lower 80's.



Could see at least a slight increase in clouds as that trough approaches on Wednesday. Low probably near 60, and the High again only making it into the lower 80's.



It may be Thursday before that trough drags a front into our region again. And even this you see from the GFS, the ECMWF was not as aggressive with it, as is often the case. Might reintroduce a 20% chance of rain here with a High near 80, Low near 60. Or may leave the rain chance out since only the GFS shows it and the overall pattern is dry. And this is Day 7. 

Let's peek at Days 8-10 just for fun. 


The GFS shows a swift frontal passage on Friday, while the ECWMF does not, times the front coming through the area more on Friday. So in light of this, reasonable to blanket both days with a 20% rain chance. High should stay around 80, Low near 60. 


Then on Saturday there is decent agreement in drier air moving back in here, and behind that front, could see temperatures cool a few degrees anyway, not sure how far we might dip into 70's on Saturday, but at least the morning might be slightly drier and cooler, back into upper 50's.



Then on Sunday the 8th of October, looks like mostly sunny skies and a High probably in mid/upper 70's, Low down in 50's, maybe our first real taste of Fall weather. 

But please understand that beyond seven days, even in a calm pattern like this, the confidence drops off sharply. I noticed one of the better television stations has dropped their 10-Day outlooks, and I may soon follow suit. Even when I was keeping up this blog regularly, I only tried one about once a week. I guess you can get away with it in the summer time. Overall I'd rather be more honest and above-board with people who visit this blog. That's why I call it the land of tea leaves sometimes, because beyond 7 days out, you're looking at general trends at best usually. Yeah, even in a summer pattern. 


We do have a couple of tropical storms in the Atlantic. 



Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to remain over open water.




And Tropical Storm Rina is not posing any threat to land either. 


So the weather is pretty calm right now. If we do see any rain over the next 7-10 days, it will probably be very light, about a ten of an inch or less, and more likely to be focused on our western counties. 

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