Friday, September 22, 2023

Tropical Storm Ophelia



So while I've been out of the weather loop lately, it looks like that model guidance roughly a week ago turned out to be right, and parts of the East Coast can expect some tropical storm impacts. 

 000

WTNT31 KNHC 221751

TCPAT1


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023

200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023


...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... 

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF 

NORTH CAROLINA...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina

* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 

located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is 

moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This 

general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, 

followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track, 

the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina 

tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern 

Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.


Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind 

data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 

mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is 

possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) 

from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, 

recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 

60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North 

Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 

a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).  


The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft

Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft

Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft

Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft

Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft

South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft

Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft

Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft

Delaware Bay...1-3 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous

waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the

surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North 

Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading 

northward through Saturday.


RAINFALL:  Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, 

with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North 

Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across 

remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 

to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday.  

This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding 

impacts.


SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east

coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.


TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through

Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Reinhart


000

WTCA41 TJSJ 221810

TCPSP1


BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Ophelia Advertencia Intermedia Número 5A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL162023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR

200 PM EDT viernes 22 de septiembre de 2023


...CICLÓN SE CONVIERTE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA...

...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUANDO A TRAVÉS DE SECTORES 

COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...  



RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...32.7N 76.0O

ALREDEDOR DE 150 MI...240 KM SE DE CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE

ALREDEDOR DE 185 MI...295 KM S DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 345 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:


Ninguno.


RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:


Un Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...

* Beaufort Inlet, Carolina del Norte hasta Chincoteague, Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay al sur de Colonial Beach, Virginia

* Río Neuse y Río Pamlico

* Porciones de Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Cape Fear, Carolina del Norte hasta Fenwick Island, Delaware

* Albemarle y Pamlico Sounds

* Marea Potomac al sur de Cobb Island

* Chesapeake Bay al sur de North Beach


Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...

* Surf City, Carolina del Norte hasta Beaufort Inlet, Carolina del 

Norte

* Resto de Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds


Un Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay un peligro de 

inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del agua que se mueve 

tierra adentro desde la costa, durante las próximas 36 horas en los 

lugares indicados.  Para una representación de las áreas bajo 

riesgo, favor de consultar el Gráfico de Vigilancia/Aviso de 

Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible 

en hurricanes.gov.Esta es una situación que amenaza la vida. Las 

personas localizadas dentro de estas áreas deben tomar todas las 

acciones necesarias para proteger la vida y la propiedad del aumento 

del agua y el potencial de otras condiciones peligrosas.  Siga con 

prontitud las instrucciones de desalojo y otras de los oficiales 

locales.


Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que se esperan condiciones 

de tormenta tropical en algún punto dentro del área bajo aviso.


Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una 

posibilidad de inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del 

agua que se mueve tierra adentro desde la  costa, en los lugares 

indicados durante las próximas 48 horas.  Para una representación de 

las áreas bajo riesgo, favor de consultar el Gráfico de 

Vigilancia/Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de 

Meteorología, disponible en hurricanes.gov.


Para información específica para su área, favor monitorear los 

productos emitidos por su oficina de servicio nacional de 

meteorología.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 

Ophelia estaba  localizado cerca de la latitud 32.7 norte, longitud 

76.0 oeste.  Ophelia se está  moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a 

cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h).  Se espera que este movimiento general 

continúe durante el próximo día más o menos,  seguido de un giro 

ligero hacia el norte.  En la trayectoria pronosticada, el centro de 

Ophelia se acercará a la costa de Carolina del Norte esta noche, y 

luego se moverá a través del este de Carolina del Norte, el sureste 

de Virginia y la Península de Delmarva el sábado y el domingo.


Los datos de los Cazahuracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea y 

los datos de viento por satélite indican que los vientos máximos 

sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60  mph (95 km/h) con ráfagas 

más fuertes.  Es posible algún fortalecimiento ligero antes de tocar 

tierra a lo largo de la costa de Carolina del Norte.


Los vientos de intensidad de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia 

275 millas (445 km) mayormente del centro. La boya 41025 de NOAA en 

Diamond Shoals, Carolina del Norte, informó recientemente un viento 

sostenido de 47 mph (76 km/h) y una ráfaga de 60 mph (97 km/h).  Una 

estación de NOAA C-MAN en Cape Lookout, Carolina del Norte, informó 

recientemente un viento sostenido de 45 mph (72 km/h) y una ráfaga 

de 52 mph (83 km/h). 


La presión central mínima estimada es de 992milibares...29.29 

pulgadas.



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Ophelia se pueden encontrar en la Discusión 

de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT1 de AWIPS, encabezado 

WTNT41 KNHC, y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml


MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica 

peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca 

de la costa se inunden por el aumento de las aguas que se mueven 

tierra adentro desde la costa.  El nivel del agua pudiera alcanzar 

la siguiente altura por encima del nivel de la superficie en algún 

lugar dentro de las áreas indicadas si el máximo de la marejada 

ocurre al mismo tiempo que la marea alta...


Neuse y Bay Rivers...3-5 pies 

Pamlico y Pungo Rivers...3-5 pies 

Chesapeake Bay al sur de Colonial Beach...2-4 pies 

Surf City, NC hasta Chincoteague, VA...2-4 pies 

Albemarle Sound...2-4 pies 

South Santee River, SC hasta Surf City, NC...1-3 pies 

Chincoteague, VA hasta Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 pies 

Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 pies 

Delaware Bay...1-3 pies 


Las aguas más profundas ocurrían a lo largo de la costa inmediata en 

áreas donde los vientos soplan hacia tierra, donde la marejada será 

acompañada por olas grandes y destructivas. Las inundaciones 

relacionadas con las marejadas dependen del momento relativo de la 

marejada y el ciclo de la marea,  y pueden variar mucho en 

distancias cortas.  Para información específica en su área, favor de 

referirse a los productos emitidos por su oficina local de 

pronóstico del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología.


VIENTO: Las condiciones de tormenta tropical están afectando 

sectores de la costa de Carolina del Norte dentro del área bajo 

aviso y continuarán extendiéndose hacia el norte hasta el sábado.


LLUVIA: Se pronostica que Ophelia produzca de 3 a 5 pulgadas de 

lluvia, con cantidades localizadas de 7 pulgadas a través de 

sectores del este de Carolina del Norte y el sureste de Virginia 

desde hoy hasta el sábado.  A través de los sectores restantes del 

Atlántico Medio hasta el sur de Nueva Inglaterra, se pronostica de 2 

a 4 pulgadas de lluvia desde más tarde hoy hasta el domingo.   Esta 

lluvia puede producir impactos de inundaciones  repentinas, urbanas 

y de riachuelos pequeños.


OLEAJE: Las marejadas generadas por Ophelia afectarán gran parte de 

la costa este de los Estados Unidos hasta este fin de semana.  Es 

probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y 

corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida.  Favor de consultar los 

productos de su oficina local de meteorología.


TORNADOS: Algunos tornados son posibles comenzando esta noche hasta 

el sábado para sectores de la Costa del Atlántico medio.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM EDT.


$$

Pronosticador Reinhart


000

WTNT41 KNHC 221453

TCDAT1


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023

1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023


Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the 

southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and 

wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to 

around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a 

front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more 

concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min 

visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer 

to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the 

strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the 

frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a 

sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this 

morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity 

is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 

scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.


The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10 

kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward 

through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the 

western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of 

the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning 

and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The 

track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the 

slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC 

forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the 

cyclone center just inland in 24 h.


Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone 

appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf 

Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also 

facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h 

as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and 

develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has 

been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early 

Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to 

the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong 

upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by 

48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and 

ECMWF models. 



Key Messages:


1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 

southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm 

Warning area today into Saturday night.


2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,

including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico 

Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where 

Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should 

follow advice given by local officials.


3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and 

small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic 

states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.


4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.

east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening

surf and rip currents.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  22/1500Z 32.3N  75.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  23/0000Z 33.2N  76.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 24H  23/1200Z 34.9N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 36H  24/0000Z 36.8N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  24/1200Z 38.3N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  25/0000Z 39.3N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Reinhart

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