Saturday, September 30, 2023

Mild Dry Pattern Continues, Cooler Temperatures Next Weekend

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Mostly sunny. Mild.

Monday (High 84, Low 60): Mostly sunny. Mild.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 59): Sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 82, Low 60): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 81, Low 61): Partly cloudy. 

Friday (High 79, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 75, Low 54): Mostly sunny. 

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 88, Low 70): Sunny and breezy.

Monday (High 85, Low 70): Sunny. 

Tuesday and Wednesday (High 84-85, Low 68): Sunny.

Thursday and Friday (High in mid-80's, Low in upper 60's): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High ~85, Low ~67): Partly to mostly sunny. 

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

Lunes (Máxima 84, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

Martes (Máxima 83, Mínima 59): Soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 81, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado.

Viernes (Máxima 79, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 75, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Soleado y ventoso.

Lunes (Máxima 85, Mínima 70): Soleado.

Martes y Miércoles (Máxima 84-85, Mínima 68): Soleado.

Jueves y Viernes (Máxima a mediados de los 80, mínima en los 60 superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima ~85, Mínima ~67): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is having Open House on October 14 and is holding SKYWARN classes ahead of our November peak in severe weather around here. The National Weather Service in Nashville has started back the Weather101 classes as well. 

(Discussion)








It was a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with mild temperatures and light Northerly winds. The High in Cullman was 86 after a morning Low of 57. Much sharper temperature gradient down in Jasper, where they got up to 90 degrees today after a morning Low of 55. Haleyville saw a High of 87 after a morning Low of 57. Fort Payne had a few more clouds at the higher elevation as they often do, got up to 88 degrees, Low of 57 this morning. Then back on the other side of the state, Muscle Shoals had a High of 90 and Low of 60, also notice they had some heavy fog this morning. Decatur had a High of 89 and Low of 56. Gadsden saw a High of 89 and Low of 57 today. Huntsville was another hot spot like Jasper, High of 91 and Low of 58 today. 

Elsewhere around the region, Birmingham had a High of 89 and Low of 64. Atlanta had a High of 86 and Low of 66. Some of these cities had a little more cloud cover, also notice it in Nashville, where they had a High of 87 and Low of 63. Memphis got up to 92 after a Low of 70. Still feeling like summer there for sure. Tuscaloosa had a High of 92 and Low of 64 today. And Tupelo had a High of 91, Low of 64 today. 

Clouds have been few and far between for us as the ridge of high pressure has amplified over the region this weekend. The only organized rain nearby is in the Florida Peninsula, where a front is still stalled out. 



Tomorrow that high pressure is going to be centered more up in the Great Lakes region. We'll see sunny skies around here again, maybe a few passing clouds, with a High near 85, Low near 60.



Basically the same thing for Monday, except the High temperature may trend more toward lower 80's, like 84 or 83. 



On Tuesday the center of the high pressure system should be moving up into New England. And down here, we'll stay sunny, more dry air, may start Tuesday in upper 50's before warming to lower 80's in afternoon. 



Should also stay dry for Wednesday even as a trough approaches from out West, High in the lower 80's and Low in upper 50's or near 60.



And the GFS has slowed down the timing of the trough/front on Thursday to match better what the ECMWF was showing before. Looks like Thursday will be dry, guess we should see isolated rain at night, but the day should be dry. Should see a High in lower 80's, Low close to 60 again. 


And for Friday, should introduce a rain chance but keep it minimal, 20%. Could see an isolated shower or two here and there, about a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting rain. And with this front pushing through, Friday should be similar weather to the days before, starting about 60 degrees and warming to near 80, though with the clouds/any rain, might not quite make it up to 80. But then we do get a cool shot behind this front. 


Looks like Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies again, a High in the mid-70's and a Low in the mid-50's. So it'll start to feel more like Fall. 


The tropics look active, but it's more bark than bite. 



Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to reach hurricane strength but stay well East of the Island of Bermuda. 



And Tropical Storm Fina is not expected to last beyond Monday, just weaken to a tropical depression and then dissipate. 


If we see any rainfall around here, it'll probably be Thursday night into Friday, and average amounts should be less than one quarter of an inch for most places that do get rain. 

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