Monday, February 12, 2024

Morning Update

 The Storm Prediction Center has trimmed back the severe thunderstorm risk for today. 

It is now looking like the risk for any thunderstorms going severe in North Alabama is going to stay marginal, and anything organized will be down over Southeast Alabama. 

There is a Tornado Watch in effect down there. 

The National Weather Service in Birmingham, which serves a few counties in North Alabama like Walker, Winston, Blount, Etowah, Marion, has taken North and most of Central Alabama out of the severe weather risk, even a marginal one. And this time, I agree with them more than the SPC.

Because things are just staying too cool and stable. We have temperatures and dewpoints down in the 50's. Conditions favor a cool rain up here. 

I think the reason the SPC is holding on to a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm up this way is that the surface front is being analyzed as along/just South of the TN River. So maybe they are thinking over the next few hours or by afternoon, there might be a break in the clouds, and something isolated could fire up. That would be not be impossible, but it is not likely. 

Today's High will probably be about 64-65 with periods of rain and some gusty winds, maybe some thunder. Risk of any storms reaching severe limits is minimal. 

We'll have sunny skies tomorrow and Wednesday. Still a little breezy tomorrow, High about 53-54 and the Low tonight about 34-35. If we see any rain lingering tonight, should stay really isolated. 

Wednesday the High should be 60 or so, Low 30 or so. 

Mostly sunny again on Thursday as high pressure is still moving through Eastern parts of the region, the High in the lower 60's, Low in the mid-30's. 

Then clouding up Friday with a High near 60, Low near 40. 

It is a close call, but model trends are making it look like most of the rain may come Friday night and then only scattered showers remaining during the day on Saturday. Looks like a High near 50, Low near 40 Saturday as another cold front drops in here. 

Then skies clear up again next Sunday with a High near 50 again but the Low dropping way down to about 30 or maybe even into the upper 20's. 

If you were to get a warning today, you need to get into a small central room (or hallway) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house, away from windows. But odds are, we won't have any severe weather problems up here. 

Official outlook is below, from Norman, Oklahoma. 

10:37 AM - Now even the SPC outlook has been trimmed to just about the Eastern third of North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. Might see some strong wind gusts in some showers/storms there or maybe a little hail. But I doubt we even see that, probably just rain and a few regular thunderstorms through this afternoon. 

12:43 PM - This thunderstorm moving through mainly Eastern parts of Cullman County is below severe limits but could produce some small hail and some minor wind gusts along with just rain and lightning.

Well with another radar scan I see it is affecting the city of Cullman now, so moving more through Central part of the county. I saw where they had some small hail at Russellville from a storm too. You can have that and some wind gusts in this atmosphere, but it stayed cool and stable for the most part.  

12:49 - For better or worse, it is now looking like much of Tennessee may see light snow accumulations tonight after all . . .

 SPC AC 121258

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0658 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

   Valid 121300Z - 131200Z




   Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, including

   parts of Alabama and north Florida into Georgia and South Carolina.

   Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

   ...Southeast States/Carolinas...

   A southern-stream shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex early this

   morning will reach the Tennessee Valley by evening and the

   Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States late tonight. This system will minor

   and become more compact, with very strong mid/high-level

   southwesterly winds (70-100 kt) partially overspreading a

   convectively muddled warm sector across the Southeast. 

   A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the Tennessee Valley

   today and toward the southern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic tonight.

   This might influence some northward advancement of a boundary across

   Georgia today, although relatively widespread precipitation/outflows

   should effectively define the practical warm sector and today's

   related surface-based severe risk, as plentiful convection is

   ongoing early today across southern/eastern Alabama into

   central/northern Georgia and much of South Carolina. Some

   northward/inland warm-sector development may more so occur tonight

   across parts of the Carolinas. 

   Increasingly robust deep-layer shear and ample low-level shear will

   support organized storm modes, with the most focused potential for

   diurnally intensifying storms expected to be across northern

   Florida/southeast Alabama into Georgia today in vicinity of

   augmenting convective outflows. Modest destabilization and

   aforementioned shear characteristics will support some embedded

   supercells as well as bowing segments, capable of damaging winds and

   a couple of tornadoes, and possibly some hail as well. 

   Pending the evolution of upstream convection and the extent of

   northward destabilization, some severe risk may develop into parts

   of the Carolinas tonight, mainly for coastal areas. Robust

   deep-layer/low-level shear could yield some severe risk even with

   minimal destabilization.

   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/12/2024

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