Thursday, February 1, 2024

Mostly Sunny and Mild Days, Rainy Day Sunday

(Forecast)

Friday (High 67, Low 34): Sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning. 

Saturday (High 65, Low 40): Mostly sunny. Becoming breezy at night with isolated showers possible.

Sunday (High 49, Low 44): Rain. Cool.

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 56, Low 40): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 59, Low 35): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 61, Low 32): Sunny.

Thursday (High 63, Low 36): Mostly sunny.

(Reading Tea Leaves)

Friday February 9th (High 63, Low 41): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

Saturday February 10th (High 61, Low 44): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Sunday February 11th (High 62, Low 47): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 67, Mínima 34): Soleado. Posible niebla irregular por la mañana.

Sábado (Máxima 65, Mínima 40): Mayormente soleado. Habrá brisa por la noche con posibles lluvias aisladas.

Domingo (Máxima 49, Mínima 44): Lluvia. Fresco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 56, Mínima 40): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 59, Mínima 35): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 61, Mínima 32): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 63, Mínima 36): Mayormente soleado.

(Leyendo Hojas de Té)

Viernes 9 de febrero (Máxima 63, Mínima 41): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado 10 de febrero (Máxima 62, Mínima 44): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo (Máxima 62, Mínima 47): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Discussion)




We had a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley aside from a little fog this morning. The High in Cullman was 59, and the Low was 27. Jasper had a High of 61 and Low of 25. Haleyville also had a High of 61 and Low of 25. 

Elsewhere around the area, Fort Payne had a High of 59 and Low of 24. Decatur had a High of 59 and Low of 26. Huntsville had a few more clouds today than most the rest of us, with a High of 58 and Low of 29. Memphis also had some clouds hanging around, were even overcast at times, had a High of 61 and Low of 32. I knew I was missing a report somewhere, here it is, Muscle Shoals, High of 61 and Low of 29, can't forget about them as we scan around the region. Tupelo had a High of 63 and Low of 31. Also over the Mississippi line, Corinth had a High of 61 and Low of 27. Back across the Tennessee state line, Savannah had a few more clouds than most sites in the region today, not as much as Memphis, closer to the cloud cover we had in Huntsville on the Alabama side, with a High of 63 and Low of 32. Fayetteville had a High of 57 and Low of 27. Winchester had a few clouds today, not many, a High of 57 and a Low all the way down at 23. And Nashville had a good bit of clouds in the mix today, a lot like Huntsville, with a High of 58 and a Low of 28. 

You can see a little moisture moving through the region tonight, along those winds from the West/Southwest that you can see on the upper-air 500 millibar map, and we could see patchy fog again tomorrow morning, but for the most part, our weather is dominated by that high pressure centered in the Gulf of Mexico. 

The 00Z GFS is still coming in, and since it often takes forever to finish, I'm just going to base this forecast on the 18Z run and my memories of previous runs over the past several days. The 00Z NAM is in fully, so will see if need to refer to that for comparison. I mean I'll look at it, I just don't show it if there is no meaningful difference from the GFS guidance. 

There is actually good agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM over the next three days. 



Tomorrow looks a lot like today, clear skies, winds staying light. Again we could see some patchy fog in the morning. And we'll be unusually warm for here lately, warming up to about 66-67 degrees. Tonight's Low should be around 35. 



Then on Saturday, while another system is making its way through the Plains, we will see a slight increase in clouds, but more sunshine overall through the day. High temperatures should come down to mid-60's or maybe even lower 60's, and the morning Low should be around 40. As we get into Saturday night, we should get a breeze ahead of the rain coming in. If you look at the orientation of the low pressure system as it approaches on the next maps for Sunday, you can see that surface winds will be shifting around to the Southeast. Winds flow counterclockwise around a low pressure system. 



And Sunday is just a rainy day, with the temperature hovering in the 40's. The Low will probably be more toward the lower 40's and the High more toward the upper 40's, but basically a washout day where the temperature just hovers for a really cool rain. 



Behind that system, rain should quickly come to an end by Monday morning, and we'll see mostly sunny skies, a High in the mid-50's and Low near 40. 



Then as high pressure settles back in over the region, we'll have sunny skies, a High in the upper 50's and a Low dropping to at least the upper 30's as most of the model guidance suggests, but my personal opinion is that mid-30's are more likely at this point for most of us. 



Looks like sunny skies again on Wednesday with a High near 60 and a Low down in the lower 30's, really dry air in the region. 



Then on Thursday, the high pressure system starts to move off into the Atlantic. We'll see a few clouds come back, but overall mostly sunny conditions remaining, the High in the lower 60's and a Low rebounding into the mid-30's, probably not making it back to upper-30's yet. 

Since this forecast is pretty simple, I'm going to venture out to 10 days this time and see how much sense we can make out of that. 

We have an interesting situation actually, where the GFS is slower in bringing in the next front than the ECMWF, the reverse of how it usually is. But Friday and Saturday, some rain chances should come back with a cold front coming through, both models show that in different ways. 



And the GFS has the system still dragging through the region next Tuesday. So we'll see. 

With a murky situation this far out, I think the best approach is to give a 20% chance of rain for Friday, then blanket Sunday and Monday with a 30% chance. There really is not tremendous skill in forecasting in the 7-10 day time range a lot of times. 

Then trying to peek beyond that, through the middle of the month, it looks pretty seasonable, if anything might see temperatures slightly above average. But you know, February is the last month of Winter, so we're always going to see the weather trending toward getting warmer as we get closer to March. And we'll have plenty of cold snaps most years, even after we get into March. The seasons usually change in a messy way. 


Rainfall amounts for the next week should be about a half-inch or less, maybe more like a quarter-inch or less for Tennessee counties, with most or all of the rain coming on Sunday. 

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