Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Sunny and Mild Again Tomorrow, A Cool Rain Friday

Thursday (High 70, Low 42): Mostly sunny. Mild. 

Friday (High 62, Low 50): Showers likely. Cool and breezy. 

Saturday (High 61, Low 51): Gradually decreasing clouds, staying breezy. Isolated lingering showers are possible, mainly in the morning. 

Sunday (High 70, Low 40): Sunny. 

Monday (High 69, Low 48): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 53): Rain and thunderstorms likely. 

Wednesday (High 66, Low 55): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of lingering showers. 

At 3:30 PM skies are sunny in Cullman with a temperature of 72 degrees. The dewpoint is 41 degrees, making the relative humidity 33%. Winds are from the South at 8 mph gusting to 15. The pressure is 29.98 inches and falling slowly. Our Low this morning was 36. Yesterday's Low was 25, when we were under the freeze warning. 

That Southwest wind flow will continue to bring us warmer air tomorrow from the Gulf. We'll see a High near 70, Low of 40 or so, mostly sunny skies. 

Rain showers are likely Friday as our next system moves in, but the chance for thunderstorms is low, with our High expected to only be in about the 60-63 range and our Low near 50, very weak instability. It will be a breezy day. 

The model guidance hasn't stayed consistent between the GFS and ECMWF over the last few days as to how quickly we get clearing on Saturday. So we could see a lingering shower or two, but if so, should stay isolated and mainly be in the morning. Expecting a day of gradually decreasing clouds. We'll have similar temperatures, High near 60, Low near 50. 

And Saturday should still be breezy. 

By Sunday we have sunny skies again, High near 70 and Low near 40. 

For our next storm system after that, I still think the ECMWF solution is more believable. Even the GFS has come around to most of the rain coming in on Tuesday but also brings some in for us Monday night. That is possible, but the European model looks more likely to be right to me. And it holds the rain off until Tuesday. 

Will go with a High in upper 60's, Low near 50 for Monday, increasing clouds, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, about a 20% chance. 

Then for Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms are likely, High in upper 60's, Low in lower 50's. Unstable air is looking limited with this system for now, but plenty of wind shear available. This is our primary severe weather season, from now through May. So it's worth keeping an eye on, but at this point, the threat for stronger storms is looking low overall.

Looks like scattered lingering showers on Wednesday, High in mid-60's, Low in mid-50's. Looks like a slow frontal passage. 

Average rainfall totals around here will be about two inches over the next seven days. If we see locally heavier amounts closer to three inches, that's most likely to happen in Northeast Alabama. 

A PBS special has come out about the blizzard of 1993. It was fun to watch. 

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