Thursday, May 30, 2024

Easing Into a Typical Summer Pattern

FORECAST:

Friday (High 85, Low 57): Mostly sunny. Mild.

Saturday (High 84, Low 62): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 85, Low 64): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 84, Low 65): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 86, Low 66): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 86, Low 65): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 88, Low 67): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 89, Low 66): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 87, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 86, Low 72): Sunny. 

Saturday (High 85, Low 73): Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

Sunday (High 85, Low 72): Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

Rest of Week (Highs in mid/upper 80's, Lows in lower/mid-70's): Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible - chance of rain 20%. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 85, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado. Suave.

Sábado (Máxima 84, Mínima 62): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 64): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

Lunes (Máxima 84, Mínima 65): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 66): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 86, Mínima 65): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 67): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 89, Mínima 66): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 87, Mínima 67): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 68): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 85, Mínima 73): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 72): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Resto de la Semana (Máximas en los 80 grados medio/superiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados bajos/mediados): Parcialmente nublado con lluvias aisladas y tormentas eléctricas posibles; probabilidad de lluvia del 20 %.

NOTES:

The Memorial Day severe weather event did produce a couple of tornadoes, but they were down in Central Alabama. Nobody has put together a web page for the damaging wind reports across North Alabama early that morning, so I guess I was one of the few people that actually cared . . . 

This is sort of old news, but NOAA does predict that this hurricane season (which starts Saturday June 1st) will be an above average season. If you or someone you know will be staying along the coast this summer, it is a good time to go over your hurricane safety plan

I'm going to try 10-day outlooks again this summer and see how it goes. Sometimes I think the science still is not that good, but other times I wonder if it is the next logical step. Even if it is, there needs to be some way to let the public know when the forecast gets to a point of lower confidence in specifics. So I'm planning to tinker around with it. 

May 28 was the anniversary of Tropical Storm Alberto from 2018. 

I think "chubasco" is a better word to describe most of our summer showers than "lluvia", but I am not sure. 

DISCUSSION:

At 3 PM skies are sunny in Cullman with a temperature of 79 degrees. The dewpoint is 55 degrees, making the relative humidity 45%. And for those of you who haven't been outside much lately, let me tell ya', you can feel the difference with that lower humidity right now. It is a rare treat for us this time of year. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.13 inches and fairly steady at the moment, but showing a slow falling trend over the last several hours, if you want to get technical. The Low this morning was 55 degrees. 

In Jasper it is sunny and 82 degrees. The dewpoint is 57, making the relative humidity 42%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.11 inches and let's go ahead and call it falling slowly. The Low this morning was 57. 

Haleyville is sunny and 78 degrees. The dewpoint is 58, making the relative humidity 50%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.16 inches/1020 millibars and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 56. 

It is mostly sunny and 83 degrees in Huntsville, with a dewpoint of 51, making the relative humidity 33%. Winds are from the West at 7 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.11 inches/1018.7 millibars and falling slowly. 

And skies are partly cloudy in Nashville with a temperature of 77, dewpoint of 49, which makes for a relative humidity of 37%. Winds are light and variable at about 3 mph. The pressure is 30.15 inches/1020.4 and I'm not going to say steady, but falling a little more slowly than at these other sites. 





Our severe weather season in the Southeast is over, and now we head into the summer months. The severe storms shift out to the Plains and Midwest this time of year, and we mostly just have heat and humidity, occasional random showers and thunderstorms to cool things off a little. Sometimes those summer storms do pulse up and produce some hail and/or strong winds, but even when they do, that doesn't last long. They rain themselves out quickly. Once in a while we get some coming out of a cluster (mesoscale convective system) in somewhere like Missouri, and they are in a weakening phase by the time they get here but can still produce enough wind to damage some trees or something. But overall summer is a quiet season for us. Those stronger storms are so hit-or-miss and are not worth worrying about that much. Just about the only time we get really organized severe thunderstorms in the summer is if a hurricane comes really far inland and brings us the threat of flash flooding, high winds, or an isolated tornado. Even then, we have to be in the right position relative to the remnants of the hurricane (mainly the Northeast quadrant). And it has to come really far inland, what's left of it. 

Which is a long-winded way of saying that a summer pattern is starting to establish around here and that it's usually quiet for the most part. Just hot and humid. Plenty of sunshine, to the point we get sick of it. But right now, I'll take a break from the severe storms. And it has been really comfortable out there lately, especially at night. It's almost like we're getting some credit for a really stormy May. 

We might get up to about 80 degrees today, skies staying sunny to mostly sunny, just a few fair weather clouds where we do see them. 



Tomorrow looks like another dry day, plenty of sunshine, more sun than clouds, rain chances so minimal, don't even worry about it, High near 85, Low near 57-58 tonight. 



The GFS wants to show a lot of rain coming in here on Saturday associated with a shortwave trough. 


And the NAM looks more realistic to me. The models do not always handle a summer pattern all that well around here. I think the GFS has the rain chances way too high and am only going to introduce a 30% chance of rain here, about a 1-in-3 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm Saturday. Will mention partly cloudy skies. High in the lower-to-mid-80's and Low in the lower-to-mid-60's. 



Sunday looks like another mix of sun and clouds, rain chance of about 20-30%. And yes thunderstorms are possible. Or you may get just plain old rain. For any newcomers to summer around here, I explain these things. Or maybe I just like to pontificate. 

Again expecting a High in the lower-to-mid-80's and a Low in the lower-to-mid-60's. 

I know a lot of forecasts are calling for lower temperatures and higher rain chances, but I'm just having a hard time believing it. So I'm forecasting what I think it's really going to do. 



Monday the GFS shows another shortwave trough that might justify rain chances in the 30-40% bracket. So probably looking at a High in the lower 80's, Low in the mid-60's. 



Tuesday definitely going to cut the rain chance back to 20-30%. High should be in mid-80's, Low in mid-60's. I'm not showing the ECMWF here because that seems like a ridiculous level of detail for a going-into-the-beginnings-of-summer forecast. But I'm glancing at it as I go along. And it generally is showing a lot less convection than the GFS. So I'm probably going to trend the rain chances on the lower end before all is said and done here. 



Will maintain a 20% chance of rain Wednesday with a High in the mid-80's, Low in the mid-60's. 



Starting Thursday a ridge will start to build in our direction from out in the Plains. But we'll keep a 20% chance of rain in the forecast. Highs should climb into the upper 80's, Lows in mid/upper 60's. 



Then next Friday, the trend toward a high pressure ridge and drier air around here is more pronounced. Should probably keep a 20% chance of rain in there just for climatology. High would be in the mid-to-upper-80's and Low in mid-60's. 



Then Saturday the GFS is showing a low pressure system from the Appalachians bringing us some scattered rain, but PoP should top out at 30% here. High in mid-to-upper-80's, Low in mid-to-upper 60's.



Then on Sunday it shows rain chances lowering again as that system moves away. So would expect a High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's, about a 20% chance of rain. 

Probably not going to be a day of taking the rain chances out completely in this forecast period, just taking into account climatology and common sense, past experience. 


We could see an average of up to two inches of rainfall during this forecast period, at least the next seven days. Isolated parts of the region might see closer to three inches or more. The showers and storms of summer are so hit-or-miss that sometimes I don't even post these maps. And I often don't post tiny severe thunderstorm probabilities from the SPC. Because I expect people to understand how things go in the summer. Those guys in Oklahoma can try to predict which of our summer thunderstorms will get to severe limits or come close, and where, but I'm not very interested in playing that game. Usually it's pretty random, or at least what causes them in certain places are fine mesoscale details that are not that well-understood yet. And the vast majority of them are general thunderstorms or just some rain. The general thrust of modern media, even a lot of these independent YouTubers, is where everything is constant drama and supposed to hit you in the face. And I'm going for the opposite with this weather blog. This is meant to be an oasis of common sense. A lot of people in the world of weather do cut through the hype, but even in meteorology, sometimes it gets ridiculous, the way things are advertised versus the way they really are when you dig into the details. Anybody who followed the Johnny Depp/Amber Heard drama knows what I'm talking about in the regular news. 

For anybody who follows the stories about my cats, Stormy has started to come out more and let me pet her, and even rub her head against me at times. Salem seems bothered by this, and walks up wanting to make sure he gets his equal share of attention. She still hisses and snarls at him most of the time, even though she's relaxing a little around me. He bites and claws me a lot more than she does, just playing rough. She only does that when she feels threatened, to tell somebody to leave her alone. And I've noticed she only does enough to get the message across. Since I always leave her alone after that, I've only gotten nibbles and mild swats. But right now, she is warming up to me, until she sees him walk up, then she becomes hostile again. 

If you're looking for some good reading to start the summer, I'd check out the new story collection by Stephen King. I pre-ordered it with some other books months ago and had forgotten about it until it came out recently. The first story ("Two Talented Bastids") is a good one with an outdoorsy-country and also sci-fi vibe. It's about 60 pages long, but once you get into it, it sort of flies by. 

And if you get too hot, drink Dr. Pepper. It is life. 

I know I'm supposed to tell you to drink water, which technically is better for rehydrating. But I'd throw some flavor in there too every now and then. It just wouldn't be summer without some carbonated beverages that are now contraband in public schools. I think the country was on the right track back when they let students have smoke breaks back in the 1970's. As one girl in my family tree put it, "And we can't even have candy!" I'm even less popular than most politically incorrect people these days. If it was up to me, adults would be able to choose whether or not they even wear seat belts in their cars. I think things were better when people had the freedom to cut them out. 

So if you're thirsty this summer, drink whatever ya' want. I am well aware that there are things that taste a whole lot better than Gatorade. 

I don't think even this anal-retentive modern world has a problem with lemonade. 

So there's our solution. If you've got a mom or grandma, ask for some lemonade when you go see 'em. it especially goes well with July . . . so you've got some time. Hasta luego. 

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