Saturday, June 1, 2024

Unsettled Summer Pattern to Start Month of June

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 83, Low 64): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Monday (High 86, Low 65): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 88, Low 67): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 87, Low 68): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 85, Low 70): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 83, Low 63): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 85, Low 62): Mostly sunny. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 83, Low 72): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, along with dangerous rip currents.

Monday (High 86, Low 73): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 87, Low 74): Sunny. 

Wednesday through Saturday (Highs in the upper 80's, Lows in the lower-to-mid-70's): Mostly sunny with only a 20% chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 83, Mínima 64): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 86, Mínima 65): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 88, Mínima 67): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 68): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 85, Mínima 70): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 50% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 83, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 85, Mínima 62): Mayormente soleado.

PREVISIÓN DE PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 83, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas, además de peligrosas corrientes de resaca.

Lunes (Máxima 86, Mínima 73): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 87, Mínima 74): Soleado.

De Miércoles a Sábado (Máximas en los 80 grados superiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados bajos y mediados de los 70): Mayormente soleado con solo un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia pasajera o tormenta eléctrica.

DISCUSSION:


We have a weak frontal boundary stalled out overt he Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. And we've had quite a few rounds of showers across the Tennessee River Valley, even a few thunderstorms, although the greater instability has stayed down near and along the Gulf Coast. 

Looks like our High in Cullman was 68 with a morning Low of 61. It is 70 in Jasper, the highest they've been so far today, Low of 64 this morning. Haleyville is at 66 degrees as of 3 PM and had a morning Low of 62. 

Just for fun, Haleyville also has a dewpoint of 66 degrees, so a relative humidity of 100%. Skies are overcast but with no rain reported at this hour. Visibility is a perfect 10 miles. A couple hours ago, it was down to 4 miles with some rain and fog. Winds are out of the South at 10 mph. Barometric pressure is 30.05 inches/1016.3 millibars and still falling slowly. 

And I'm not hearing anything from my kinfolks further to the North in Alabama and into Tennessee since the severe weather at the end of May, so screw them for this forecast. If I have any readers from there, you can let me know, and maybe I'll remember you next time. My weather radio only goes off for alerts in Cullman, Walker, and Winston counties anyway. 



That system will continue to drift Northeast tomorrow, and we'll have some chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm. 


The NAM is more conservative than the GFS with the moisture/shower chances tomorrow, but today's forecast busted. I forecast about a 30% chance of rain and partly cloudy skies. And what we actually got was more like a 50% chance of rain and mostly cloudy skies, enough to seriously keep the temperatures down, not even in the 80's at all. So I'm going to show the GFS guidance some respect after having to eat today's humble pie, or crow. 

And it seems to support a 40% chance of scattered off-and-on showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, a High in the lower 80's and a Low in the lower 60's. I'm going to go with 83 and 64. 



Monday as we get into the new workweek, it looks to transition to a pattern, at least early in the week, where high pressure is mainly in control of our weather, but we have enough moisture for scattered rain. 


The NAM continues to show lower rain chances than the GFS. 

And I'll cut the rain chance down to at least 30%, maybe 20% here. High should in the mid-to-upper-80's and the Low in the lower-to-mid-60's.

I noticed that Monday is Jefferson Davis's birthday, the President of the Confederacy. Well there are lots of holidays I don't advertise when I write the forecasts up top. You might notice I kind of skip over Father's Day and Mother's Day too. Basically unless it's a federal holiday or one that I really dig, it's just another day to me. But I noticed some offices will be closed. So if you work at one of those offices and have the day off work, if you go and get a hamburger, if the person serving it seems kinda' testy . . . it might be because they still have to work while you have the day off. Who am I to judge . . . but just sayin' that might be what's goin' on . . . 



High pressure ridge holds on Tuesday and I see no reason to have a rain chance above the isolated 20% PoP. I love using actual meteorology terms once in a while. And that's an abbreviation technically. I should use more of those, because my brother says I am too "verbose". If I used more abbreviations I'd have a lot more friends in this world eh . . . 

Look for a High in the upper 80's, Low in the upper 60's. 



A cold front will come close enough to us on Wednesday to increase our rain chances but probably to only 40%. Sometimes I tweak these probabilities after I'm finished and sort of have a better look at the overall pattern through the week. Taking it one day at a time, it's more a rough estimate. High in mid-to-upper-80's on Wednesday, the Low in the upper 60's. 



Then on Thursday, the GFS shows the frontal boundary washing out around here. 


The ECMWF shows more of a frontal passage with a good bit of rain. 

The GFS solution fits better for the time of year, but in light of what we saw today with just a weak stalled frontal boundary, will increase rain chance to 50% here. 

Think we'll have a High in the lower-to-mid-80's and a Low near 70. 



It looks like we'll get a frontal passage and by Friday, may can take rain chances out altogether. 

Total side note, the NWS forecasts I see tend to be solid, but just when I was bummed out about my busted forecast today, I noticed a TV station that had a 0% chance of rain for Friday right beside the slogan "Storms Likely." Ah well, some of us take our ego boosts wherever we can get 'em. If I write something that stupid, somebody please call me out on it. That's the kind of mistake no forecaster wants to make even if they're half-asleep. It was a good laugh though. 

I'm going to go with the general idea, advertised more by the ECMWF than the GFS shown above, that we'll turn mostly sunny on Friday with no significant rain chances, like rain chance is 10% or less in North Alabama and into Tennessee.

High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower 60's. 



The GFS suddenly wants to bring another wave of rain in here next Saturday.


The ECMWF shows a slower progression of the same feature. For now I'll just mention an increase in clouds on Saturday, a High in mid-80's, Low in lower 60's. 



The guidance between the GFS/ECMWF between Sunday and Tuesday (June 9th through 11th) is a big mess. But if I was going to base a forecast off of it, I'd go with more sun than clouds overall, reintroduce a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, with Highs climbing back into upper 80's and Lows in mid-to-upper-60's.


Nothing is going on in the tropics, although today is technically the start of hurricane season, which runs through November. Sometimes it doesn't really get active until August, but most people expect this year to be unusually active, and I agree with that. Nothing going on at the moment though, so enjoy the peace and quiet I guess. None of our weather looks high-impact for the next week. Rainfall totals will average about one inch in North Alabama, maybe more like 1.5 inches for Southern Middle Tennessee. 

And I noticed Meghan Thomas is leaving WKRN-2 and Good Morning Nashville. I've seen that ole' gal move around before, and she'll do well wherever she goes. I thought it was kind of neat how she advocated for people who are hard of hearing. 

If I live to be an old codger and ever get hard of hearing though, I hope I never lapse into saying, "HUH?" That is so damned annoying. Sometimes I want to clobber the next person that uses that syllable. At least it's not as bad as "meh" from people who can hear just fine and don't realize they're imitating an old Simpsons character. 

And my joking around today is a distraction from some truly distressing things that have been going on in my neighborhood lately. It really is not fit for public discussion. Even Jerry Springer had some standards sometimes. 

However, right here at home, the cats learning to get along has been interesting. Stormy started letting me pet her more from time to time. And she would hiss and growl again as soon as she saw Salem. 

And after a few times, I realized he didn't like her getting the attention instead of him. So they were having a little rivalry there. I would never replace that sweet guy, just let him have a sister, sort of. 

I'm actually proud of him, because he still hasn't lost his temper with her, when she's gone off on him numerous times. He seems to still hope they can eventually get along. But she makes him keep his distance. If he gets too close, the threats begin. 

She is actually a sweet cat when she can relax. And I'm finding that the more I share food with her, the more she relaxes around me. It's kind of funny because it's such a simple thing. But she smelled some vienna sausages the other day, and I let her have a few bites. (My great-grandmother used to get on to me for sharing those with cats. "That's some pretty expensive cat food, Matt!") And she also ran into the room sniffing when I was eating some Mexican dip like my dad used to make. It tastes about as good as a grilled stuffed burrito from Taco Bell, probably horrible for your arteries, but maybe worth dying for later if you're still young, it tastes so good. She took a few laps of that. 

And after that, yesterday and today, she has had times she'll jump up in the chair on my lap and just start purring and rolling around, letting me pet her. Yesterday she even took a cat nap there and let me rub her belly. Which is just unheard of. The previous owner told me she had never done that after staying there about five months. It was really great to see. She only tensed up and bit at me a couple times before she went back to just looking blissful and purring. She is a really pretty cat, just kind of hard to notice when she's spitting and growling all the time. It was good to see what she's like when she doesn't feel threatened. 

She was sweet for a while today too, but not quite as sweet. Which is strange because I gave them both their canned food today. I think maybe I should give them the same kind whenever I do that. Might have been some more rivalry, like they seemed interested in each other's dishes. I got a couple more hisses and swats and bites today and not as much of her relaxing and purring. But there was some of it. And I have to say it was wonderful to see that cat look truly happy. Her original name from the shelter was Sweetness, and the woman who was keeping her said it should have been Demon, but I'm going to keep calling her Stormy until she earns the name Sweetness. I guess that'll just be her last name for now. I do find it interesting that Salem seems to understand that she's just scared from having a bad past. Sort of like I can tell from the way she bites me or swats, she is not really trying to hurt me. She's just lashing out and saying she wants to be left alone. I thought Salem was being a dummy for keeping on trying to be friendly to her when she kept telling him where to go . . . but maybe he is wiser about such things than I am. Because she has already softened up a lot. It is still funny to toss and turn in the night and hear her spitting at him though. One friend of mine said, "As a man, he may never learn." You really have to see it to appreciate the comedy though. 

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