Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Hurricane Warning for Gulf Waters, Hurricane Watch Issued For Florida Bend



 So far, aircraft has not found a well-defined center. But based on computer model forecasts, which are unusually consistent, everybody is taking this seriously, could be a major hurricane headed in the general direction of the Florida Bend or Panhandle within the next couple days. Most likely time of landfall is Thursday. Based on what we know now, the Peninsula is more likely to experience tropical storm than hurricane conditions. This is a situation to stay tuned to. 

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

506 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico


Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average

height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be

more than twice the significant wave height.


GMZ047-242115-

SE Gulf from 22N to 26N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-

506 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


...HURRICANE WARNING...


.TODAY...E winds 20 to 25 kt S of 24N, and E 10 to 15 kt N of

24N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, E winds

25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late. N of 24N,

E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E to SE 25 to 30 kt late.

Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in E to SE swell late.

Numerous showers and scattered tstms.

.WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, E winds

40 to 45 kt, becoming E to SE 55 to 65 kt in the afternoon. N of

24N, E winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in E to SE swell.

Scattered showers and isolated tstms.

.WED NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, SE to S

winds 60 to 70 kt, shifting to SW 55 to 65 kt late. N

of 24N, E winds 35 to 45 kt, becoming E to SE 70 to 80 kt late.

Seas 15 to 23 ft in S swell. Numerous showers and

isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.

.THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 24N, SW winds 35 to

40 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. N of 24N, SW

to W winds 65 to 85 kt, diminishing to 40 to 45 kt in the

afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in NW to N swell.

.THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming SW 15 to 20 kt

late. Seas 9 to 14 ft in N swell.

.FRI...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NW to N swell.

.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

.SAT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.


$$


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

509 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


GMZ830-850-853-870-873-876-241715-

/O.NEW.KTBW.HU.A.1009.240924T0909Z-000000T0000Z/

Tampa Bay waters-

Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-

Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-

Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-

Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-

Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-

509 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...


* WHAT...South winds 45 to 65 kt with gusts up to 95 kt and seas

  25 to 30 ft.


* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.


* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from early Thursday

  morning until Thursday evening.


* IMPACTS...Hurricane force winds and hazardous seas can capsize

  or damage vessels and severely reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the

vessel for extreme conditions before conditions deteriorate

further.


&&


$$

Nine Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 4

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL  AL092024

508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


FLZ160-241715-

/O.NEW.KTBW.HU.A.1009.240924T0908Z-000000T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KTBW.SS.A.1009.240924T0908Z-000000T0000Z/

Coastal Sarasota-

508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...


A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere

within this area within the next 48 hours


A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising

water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within

this area within the next 48 hours


* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Venice

    - Sarasota

    - Englewood


* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph

        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning

          until Thursday evening


    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58

      to 73 mph

        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical

          storm force.

        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be

          underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.

        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind

          becomes hazardous.


    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with

          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few

          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door

          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.

          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.

        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater

          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several

          fences and roadway signs blown over.

        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within

          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,

          and access routes impassable.

        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more

          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.


* STORM SURGE

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible

        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet

          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas

        - Window of concern: Begins early Thursday morning


    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm

      surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground

        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of

          greater than 6 feet above ground.

        - PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway.

          Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.

        - ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.

          Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of

          your life.


    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive

        - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding

          accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to

          buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by

          floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an

          extended period.

        - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary

          roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems

          and barriers may become stressed.

        - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.

        - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many

          small craft broken away from moorings, especially in

          unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and

          stranded.


* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally

          higher amounts


    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

      moderate flooding rain

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues

          are possible.

        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

          vulnerable to flooding.

        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take

          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.


    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations

          and rescues.

        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with

          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,

          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,

          creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.

        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken

          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas

          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and

          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on

          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.

          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge

          closures.


* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes


    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

          with gusty winds may still occur.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

          tornado situation.

        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.


    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.


* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - https://www.weather.gov/tbw


$$


000

WTNT34 KNHC 240858

TCPAT4


BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024

500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 

FLORIDA GULF COAST...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN

ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida 

southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and 

Charlotte Harbor.


A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida 

from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including 

Tampa Bay.


A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of 

Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from 

north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Englewood to Indian Pass

* Tampa Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Grand Cayman

* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of

Youth


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas

* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge

* Flamingo to south of Englewood

* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 24 to 36 hours.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the 

Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor 

the progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings will 

likely be required today.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the

northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected

later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to

north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the

forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move

across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and

then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the

system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue

strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of

Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) 

based on Air Force dropsonde data.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in

the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and

WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the

Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches.  Over the

eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with

isolated totals over 6 inches.  This rainfall brings a risk of

considerable flooding.


Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is

expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with

isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result

in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with

minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.


STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft


For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.


Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above

normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern

coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.


Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above

ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along

the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.


WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in

Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are 

possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early 

Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning 

areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today.  Tropical storm 

conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in 

southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida 

Panhandle.


SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast

of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple

of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of

Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake


000

WTNT44 KNHC 240859

TCDAT4


Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024

500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024


Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized. 

A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad 

circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes 

from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level 

circulation remains poorly defined.  The initial wind speed is kept 

at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.  


The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt. 

This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves 

around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.  

The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as 

the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into 

the south-central United States.  This evolution of the steering 

pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to 

north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the 

northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday.  The biggest change to the 

model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower, 

with the GFS model faster than most of the aids.  However, this 

remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall 

change was made to the official forecast.  Hopefully an ongoing NOAA 

G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future 

track refinements.


Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the 

models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level 

low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and 

tomorrow.  Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for 

strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and 

Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and 

warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of 

the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The intensity guidance is very close to 

the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that 

this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.


Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, 

and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, 

particularly on the east side.  In addition, the fast 

forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in 

farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the 

southeastern United States after landfall.  Hurricane and Storm 

Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches 

and warnings are likely later today.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane

strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early 

Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of

western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

with hurricane conditions possible.


2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before 

it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the 

potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging 

hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and 

the Florida west gulf coast is increasing.  Hurricane and Storm 

Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they 

have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by 

local officials. 


3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions

of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding

and mudslides across western Cuba.  Heavy rainfall will likely

result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across

portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding

possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the

Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated

moderate river flooding will be possible.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  24/0900Z 18.9N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  24/1800Z 19.6N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 24H  25/0600Z 20.7N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  25/1800Z 22.0N  86.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  26/0600Z 24.3N  85.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 60H  26/1800Z 27.8N  84.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  27/0600Z 31.9N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 96H  28/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Blake


000

WTNT54 KNHC 240900

TDSAT4

WTNT54 KNHC 240900

TDSAT4



Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve Discusión Número 4

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL092024

500 AM EDT martes 24 de septiembre de 2024


Las imágenes de satélite indican que el sistema permanece mal

organizado. Una gran área de convección profunda está en el lado

este de la circulación amplia sin características centrales

definidas, y las sondas automáticas de los aviones de la Fuerza

Aérea y la NOAA indican que la circulación de bajo nivel permanece

mal definida. La velocidad del viento inicial se mantiene a 30 kt,

de acuerdo con muchas sondas drop-off alrededor de ese valor.


La mejor estimación de movimiento inicial es hacia el noroeste a

aproximadamente 7 kt. Se espera este movimiento general hoy mientras

la perturbación se mueve alrededor de un área de alta presión sobre

el sureste de Estados Unidos.  Se espera que el ciclón gire

gradualmente hacia el norte el miércoles a medida que los cambios

altos se mueven hacia el este antes de una vaguada de nivel medio

que cae en el centro sur de Estados Unidos.Esta evolución del patrón

de dirección debe hacer que el sistema acelere hacia el norte a

norte-noreste sobre el este del Golfo de México y hacia la Costa

noreste del Golfo hasta el jueves. El mayor cambio en la guía del

modelo de la noche a la mañana es que la media de guía es un poco

más lenta, con el modelo GFS más rápido que la mayoría de las

ayudas. Sin embargo, esto sigue siendo un conjunto de modelos muy

consistente, y se hizo muy poco cambio general al pronóstico

oficial. Esperemos que una misión de aeronaves NOAA G-IV en curso

ayude a proporcionar datos útiles para cualquier refinamiento de

trayectoria futuro.


La cizalladura suroeste continúa sobre la perturbación, aunque los

modelos insisten en que esta cizalladura disminuirá a medida que una

baja de nivel superior sobre la Península de Yucatán se debilita hoy

y mañana. De lo contrario, las condiciones parecen bastante

favorables para el fortalecimiento sobre el este del Golfo de México

el miércoles y el jueves, con el sistema probable que se mueva sobre

aguas extremadamente profundas y cálidas, junto con una interacción

a través de las depresiones favorables, y muchas de las ayudas de

pronóstico están mostrando una rápida intensificación sobre el este

del Golfo de México. La guía de intensidad está muy cerca del

pronóstico de intensidad del CNH anterior y continúa indicando que

este sistema se volverá bastante grande y poderoso antes de que

toque tierra.


Debido al gran tamaño de este sistema pronosticado, los impactos de

marejada ciclónica, el viento y la lluvia se extenderán bien desde

el centro, particularmente en el lado este. Además, la velocidad de

avance rápida mientras cruza la costa probablemente resultará en una

penetración más hacia el interior de vientos fuertes sobre partes

del sureste de Estados Unidos después de tocar tierra. Se han

emitido Vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada Ciclónica esta mañana, y

son probables otras vigilancias y avisos más tarde hoy.



MENSAJES CLAVE:


1. Se pronostica que la perturbación se intensificará y estará cerca

de la fuerza de huracán cuando alcance el Mar Caribe muy noroeste el

miércoles temprano. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical

sobre porciones del oeste de Cuba y la costa noreste de la Península

de Yucatán con condiciones de huracán posibles.


2. Se espera que el sistema se intensifique en un huracán mayor

antes de que se acerque a la Costa noreste del Golfo el jueves, y el

potencial de marejadas ciclónicas que amenazan la vida y vientos con

fuerza de huracán dañinos a lo largo de la costa del Panhandle de

Florida y la costa oeste del golfo de Florida está aumentando. Se

han emitido Vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada Ciclónica, y los

residentes deben asegurarse de que tienen su plan de huracán en su

lugar, y también seguir los consejos de los funcionarios locales.


3. El potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve traerá fuertes lluvias a

porciones del Caribe occidental, lo que causará inundaciones y

deslizamientos de tierra considerables a través del oeste de Cuba.

Las fuertes lluvias probablemente resultarán en inundaciones

repentinas y urbanas localmente considerables a través de porciones

de Florida, con posibles inundaciones repentinas e urbanas aisladas

a través del Sureste, el sur de Appalachians, y el Valle de

Tennessee el miércoles hasta el viernes. Serán posibles inundaciones

fluviales menores a moderadas aisladas.



POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS


INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENCIAL CICLÓN DE TROP

 12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...CICLÓN TROPICAL

 24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

 36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

 48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

 60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

 72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

 96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H 29/0600Z...DISIPADO


$$

Pronosticador Blake



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***



792 

WTCA44 KNHC 240900

TASAT4



BOLETÍN

Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve Advertencia Número 4

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL092024

500 AM EDT martes 24 de septiembre de 2024


...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACANES Y MAREJADA CICLÓNICA EMITIDAS PARA

PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA...



RESUMEN DE 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...18.9N 83.0W

ALREDEDOR 120 MI...195 KM OSO DE GRAND CAYMAN

ALREDEDOR DE 240 MI...390 KM SSE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 315 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:


Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica desde Indian Pass

Florida hacia el sur a Bonita Beach Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay y

Charlotte Harbor.


Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Huracán para la Costa del Golfo de

Florida desde Englewood hacia el norte y hacia el oeste a Indian

Pass, incluyendo Tampa Bay.


Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para la Costa del

Golfo de Florida desde Indian Pass hasta la Línea del Condado de

Walton/Bay y desde el norte de Bonita Beach hasta el sur de

Englewood.


RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:


Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...

* Indian Pass hacia el sur a Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor


Una Vigilancia de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Cabo Catoche a Tulum, México

* Provincia cubana de Pinar del Rio

* Englewood a Indian Pass

* Tampa Bay


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Gran Caimán

* Rio Lagartos a Tulum, México

* Provincias cubanas de Artemisa, y Pinar del Rio, y la Isla de

Youth


Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Tortugas Secas

* Lower Keys al oeste del Puente de Seven Mile

* Flamingo al sur de Englewood

* Al Oeste de Indian Pass a la línea del Condado de Walton Bay


Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una

posibilidad de vida-

amenaza de inundación, por el agua ascendente que se mueve tierra

adentro desde el

la costa, en los lugares indicados durante las próximas 48 horas.

Para una representación de áreas en riesgo, por favor vea el Tiempo

Nacional

Gráfico de Vigilancia/Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica de Servicio,

disponible en

hurricanes.gov.


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso, en

este caso dentro de las próximas 24 a 36 horas.


Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles las condiciones

de huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Una vigilancia se emite

típicamente 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia anticipada de

vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que hacen los

preparativos exteriores difíciles o peligrosos.


Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles las

condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia,

generalmente dentro de 48 horas.


Los intereses en otro lugar a lo largo de la Costa noreste del

Golfo, incluyendo el Panhandle de Florida y la costa oeste del Golfo

de Florida, deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Es

probable que se requieran vigilancias o avisos adicionales hoy.


Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados

Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la

tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), la perturbación se centró cerca de la

latitud 18.9 Norte, longitud 83.0 Oeste. El sistema se está moviendo

hacia el noroeste cerca de 8 mph (13 km/h). Se espera este

movimiento general más tarde hoy y esta noche, seguido de un

movimiento más rápido hacia el norte a norte-noreste el miércoles y

el jueves. En la trayectoria de pronóstico, se pronostica que el

centro del sistema se moverá a través del Mar Caribe noroeste hasta

esta noche, y luego sobre el este del Golfo de México el miércoles y

el jueves.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera un fortalecimiento durante los

próximos días, y se pronostica que el sistema se convertirá en

huracán el miércoles y continuará fortaleciéndose el jueves a medida

que se mueve a través del este del Golfo de México.

* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...alta...cerca del 100

por ciento.

* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...cerca del 100 por

ciento.


La presión central mínima estimada es de 1001 mb (29.56 pulgadas)

basada en los datos de sonda de la Fuerza Aérea.



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los Mensajes clave para el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve se

pueden encontrar en

la Discusión de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado de AWIPS

MIATCDAT4 y el encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


LLUVIA: Se espera que el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve produzca

acumulaciones de lluvia totales de 4 a 8 pulgadas sobre el oeste de

Cuba y las Islas Caimán con totales aislados alrededor de 12

pulgadas. Sobre el este de la Península de Yucatán, se esperan de 2

a 4 pulgadas de lluvia con totales aislados de más de 6

pulgadas.Esta lluvia trae un riesgo de inundaciones considerables.


Sobre el sureste de los Estados Unidos, se espera que el Potencial

de Ciclón Tropical Nueve produzca acumulaciones de lluvia totales de

3 a 6 pulgadas con totales aislados alrededor de 10 pulgadas.Esta

lluvia probablemente resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas y

urbanas localmente considerables, con inundaciones menores a

moderadas del río también posibles inundaciones menores a aisladas.


Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nine, por favor vea el Gráfico

de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,

disponible en hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf y el gráfico

de Riesgo de Inundaciones Repentinas en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml? ero.


MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica

peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca

de la costa se inunden por aguas ascendentes que se mueven tierra

adentro desde la costa. El agua podría alcanzar las siguientes

alturas por encima del suelo en algún lugar en las áreas indicadas

si la marejada máxima ocurre en el momento de la marea alta...


Ochlockonee River, FL a Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 pies

Chassahowitzka, FL a Anclote River, FL...6-10 pies Indian Pass, FL a

Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 pies Anclote River, FL a Middle de

Longboat Key, FL...5-8 pies Tampa Bay...5-8 pies Middle de Longboat

Key, FL a Englewood, FL...4-7 pies Englewood, FL a Bonita Beach,

FL...3-5 pies Charlotte Harbor...3-5 pies Charlotte Harbor...3-5

pies Middle River


Para una representación completa de áreas en riesgo de inundación de

marejada ciclónica, por favor vea el Gráfico de Marejada Ciclónica

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.


La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles de agua hasta 2 a 4

pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en áreas de vientos

terrestres a lo largo de la costa sur de Pinar del Rio, Cuba,

incluyendo la Isla de Youth.


La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles de agua hasta 2 a 4

pies por encima del nivel del suelo en áreas de vientos terrestres

dentro del área de aviso a lo largo de la costa este de la Península

de Yucatán.


VIENTO: Son posibles las condiciones de huracán dentro de las áreas

de vigilancia en Cuba y México para el miércoles temprano. Son

posibles las condiciones de huracán dentro de las áreas de

vigilancia de Estados Unidos el miércoles y temprano el jueves. Se

esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en las áreas de aviso en

Cuba y México a partir de hoy. Son posibles las condiciones de

tormenta tropical en el área de vigilancia a partir del miércoles en

el sur de Florida y los Cayos, y el jueves en el Panhandle de

Florida.


OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por el sistema afectarán la costa sur de

Cuba y la Península de Yucatán de México durante los próximos dos

días. Las marejadas se extenderán hacia el norte hacia la costa

oeste de Florida y la Costa noreste del Golfo el miércoles y el

jueves.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje

y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 800 AM EDT. Próxima advertencia

completa a las 1100 AM EDT.


$$

Pronosticador Blake



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


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