Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Tropical Depression Seven - Atlantic



 

080 

WTNT32 KNHC 111454

TCPAT2


BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024

Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven

was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 28.7 West. The

depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 

km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward 

speed is anticipated over the next few days.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the 

depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.


$$

Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


000

WTNT42 KNHC 111455

TCDAT2


Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024

Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024


Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic 

today.  This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a 

closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on 

TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also 

indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath 

the mid-level center based upon visible imagery  The initial 

intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data.


The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt.  The system 

should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days 

with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of 

the Azores.  Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens 

beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more 

complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between 

hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level 

ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser 

Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North 

Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the 

depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward 

will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly 

track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast 

was placed just south of consensus this forecast period.


Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its 

development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will 

generally be around 27C.  Thus gradually intensification is shown 

for the first couple of days.  However, shear is forecast to 

increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions. 

This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models 

which show more modest intensification than the statistical 

dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on 

how much latitude the system gains.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  11/1500Z 16.0N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  12/0000Z 16.6N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  12/1200Z 17.5N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  13/0000Z 18.6N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  13/1200Z 19.3N  39.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  14/0000Z 19.9N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  14/1200Z 20.3N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  15/1200Z 20.6N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  16/1200Z 21.0N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH


$$

Forecaster Mullinax/Blake

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