Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Hurricane Idalia Has Winds of 100 MPH and Strengthening Rapidly, Landfall by Tomorrow



 Conditions are going to deteriorate for Florida tonight through tomorrow as this thing makes landfall. Winds are expected to be sustained at 100 knots, which is 115 miles per hour, by that time. Combine that with the storm surge and flooding potential, and it is just a bad situation for the Florida Bend and much of the Western coast of the Florida Peninsula especially. This thing is strong enough that it will likely remain at hurricane strength as it passed further inland, through Southeast Georgia and then may weaken along the coast of the Carolinas before moving over the waters of the Atlantic. Probably the next update you see, this thing will have already made landfall, unless you're tracking every single update from the Hurricane Center. But some time tomorrow, this thing will be inland. Between tonight and tomorrow afternoon, we'll have landfall, probably the eyewall hitting the Florida Bend. Everybody on that East/Northeast side of the hurricane though will have some dangerous weather to deal with. Hurricane impacts are not limited to the eyewall and where it lands. And that is especially true with a significant hurricane like this. 


It even looks impressive on radar, and some of its bands have caused severe thunderstorms well inland through Florida today. Have some thunderstorms that produced damaging winds, brought down a lot of trees, in Western Georgia today too. At the moment, this hurricane is moving due North at 16 miles per hour. But it is expected to take a slight Eastern turn before landfall late tonight or tomorrow. It's looking more like landfall will take place during the morning hours of Wednesday, some time tomorrow morning. Hope everyone stays as safe as they can. It's not like Florida has never dealt with a major hurricane before, but I feel like a lot of people may have underestimated this one. We'll know after tomorrow. 

085 

WTNT35 KNHC 292137 CCB

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number  13...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023


Corrected Tropical Storm Warning area



...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED

ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W

ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's

River northward to Edisto Beach.


A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum

Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.


A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River

northward to Surf City, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Watch has

been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia

border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.


The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

has been discontinued.


The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,

Florida.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa

Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas Florida

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South

Carolina

* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia

border

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located

near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West.  Idalia is moving

toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northward to 

north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with 

Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on 

Wednesday morning.  After landfall, the center of Idalia is 

forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or 

along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina 

late Wednesday and Thursday.


Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 

that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 

km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 

Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it 

reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida.  Idalia is likely to still 

be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly 

when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on 

Wednesday.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).


The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb 

(28.71 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft

Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft

Tampa Bay...4-6 ft

Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft

Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft

Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft

South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft

South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3

ft

Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.

Florida Keys...1-2 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions beginning soon.


Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are

possible within the Lower Florida Keys.  Tropical storm conditions

will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida

Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.


Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area 

along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and 

Wednesday night.


Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the

warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South

Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and 

Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

area in North Carolina by Thursday.


RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts:


Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10

inches.


Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,

southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from

Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches 

are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.


This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides

across western Cuba.


Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally

significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of

Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into

Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas

Wednesday into Thursday.


SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern

coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the

north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday.  Swells affecting

portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight.  These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central

Florida coast through tonight.  The tornado threat will also spread

northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast

Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Berg


000

WTNT25 KNHC 292055

TCMAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  84.8W AT 29/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  14 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT.......120NE 140SE  50SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  84.8W AT 29/2100Z

AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  84.8W


FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N  84.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.

34 KT...100NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N  82.9W...INLAND

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW   0NW.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  15NW.

34 KT... 90NE 170SE  50SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.9N  80.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.

34 KT... 70NE 160SE  50SW  30NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.9N  77.1W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  50NW.


FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N  74.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE  70SE  80SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.3N  71.8W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...130NE  50SE  80SW 120NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N  69.6W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.7N  69.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N  84.8W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0000Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z


$$

FORECASTER BERG


000

FONT15 KNHC 292055

PWSAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023               

2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023                                            


AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   

26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  

85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        


Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 


CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               


PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           

        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      


PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 



  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   


               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 

  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  

             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN


FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

LOCATION       KT                                                   


OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)


WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)


OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  12(23)   1(24)   X(24)

CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)


CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   X(13)   1(14)


NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   8(33)   1(34)   X(34)

NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)

MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  26(35)   4(39)   X(39)   X(39)

SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)


WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   1(22)   X(22)   1(23)


BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)  19(20)  32(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)

BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)


COLUMBIA SC    34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)


LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)  29(31)  22(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)

LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  38(40)  19(59)   X(59)   1(60)   X(60)

MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)  39(40)  11(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)

GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


CHARLESTON SC  34  X   6( 6)  71(77)   2(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)

CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)  27(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X  22(22)  64(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)

BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)  41(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


AUGUSTA GA     34  X   5( 5)  15(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)


SAVANNAH GA    34  X  28(28)  57(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

SAVANNAH GA    50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


KINGS BAY GA   34  2  82(84)   9(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)

KINGS BAY GA   50  X  17(17)  17(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)

KINGS BAY GA   64  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


WAYCROSS GA    34  1  89(90)   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)

WAYCROSS GA    50  X  39(39)  14(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)

WAYCROSS GA    64  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)


MAYPORT NS FL  34  2  79(81)   7(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)

MAYPORT NS FL  50  X  11(11)   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


JACKSONVILLE   34  1  77(78)   7(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

JACKSONVILLE   50  X  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

JACKSONVILLE   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


GAINESVILLE FL 34  8  85(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)

GAINESVILLE FL 50  X  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


DAYTONA BEACH  34  2  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)


THE VILLAGES   34 11  49(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)


ORLANDO FL     34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)


PATRICK AFB    34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)


FT PIERCE FL   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


W PALM BEACH   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


NAPLES FL      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


FT MYERS FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


VENICE FL      34 64   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)


TAMPA FL       34 77  10(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)

TAMPA FL       50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


CEDAR KEY FL   34 86  13(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CEDAR KEY FL   50  4  51(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)

CEDAR KEY FL   64  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)


TALLAHASSEE FL 34  5  64(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)

TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


ST MARKS FL    34 13  73(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)

ST MARKS FL    50  X  36(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

ST MARKS FL    64  X  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)


APALACHICOLA   34 50  25(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)

APALACHICOLA   50  3  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

APALACHICOLA   64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


GFMX 290N 850W 34 93   2(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)

GFMX 290N 850W 50 29  14(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

GFMX 290N 850W 64  6  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)


PANAMA CITY FL 34  7  12(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)


GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)


$$                                                                  

FORECASTER BERG                                                     


ne Idalia Forecast Discussion

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000

WTNT45 KNHC 292056

TCDAT5


Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023


The first stages of an eye have been taking shape in visible

satellite imagery.  The hurricane has a relatively small Central

Dense Overcast and a prominent band of deep convection extending

over the eastern semicircle, reaching across the Florida peninsula

southward across western Cuba.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 

Hunter aircraft just measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 91 

kt with the pressure falling to 972 mb.  The initial intensity is 

therefore set at 85 kt.


Idalia is moving faster toward the north, or 360/14 kt, between a

mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a

subtropical ridge over the Greater Antilles.  Idalia is expected to

continue moving northward and turn north-northeastward as it

approaches the Big Bend region of Florida during the next 12-24

hours.  There is very little spread among the track guidance, and

the NHC official forecast has been placed very close to the HCCA

and TVCX consensus aids during the first 24 hours.  This has

resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the

previous forecast, although it should be stressed that additional

shifts to the track will be possible until the center reaches land.


After landfall, Idalia is expected to turn toward the northeast and

then east, moving near or along the coast of Georgia and the

Carolinas in 36-48 hours.  Uncertainty in the track forecast is

still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models

turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane

models still show the storm moving out to sea.  As a result, the

official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and

5.


The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt major hurricane.  It

is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue

strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt shown

in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land.

Weakening is expected after landfall, but due to the system's

expected fast motion, it is possible that Idalia could maintain

hurricane intensity as it moves across southern Georgia and 

approaches the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.  After 

Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong 

shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official 

forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet 

above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere 

between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening 

storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the 

Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.  

Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local 

officials.


2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds 

where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of 

Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of 

the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong 

winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida 

and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where 

Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be 

prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force 

winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern 

South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 


3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally 

considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, 

central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina 

later tonight into Thursday.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  29/2100Z 26.1N  84.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  30/0600Z 28.3N  84.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  30/1800Z 31.0N  82.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

 36H  31/0600Z 32.9N  80.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 48H  31/1800Z 33.9N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER

 60H  01/0600Z 33.8N  74.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  01/1800Z 33.3N  71.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  02/1800Z 32.3N  69.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  03/1800Z 31.7N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH


$$

Forecaster Berg

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