Conditions are going to deteriorate for Florida tonight through tomorrow as this thing makes landfall. Winds are expected to be sustained at 100 knots, which is 115 miles per hour, by that time. Combine that with the storm surge and flooding potential, and it is just a bad situation for the Florida Bend and much of the Western coast of the Florida Peninsula especially. This thing is strong enough that it will likely remain at hurricane strength as it passed further inland, through Southeast Georgia and then may weaken along the coast of the Carolinas before moving over the waters of the Atlantic. Probably the next update you see, this thing will have already made landfall, unless you're tracking every single update from the Hurricane Center. But some time tomorrow, this thing will be inland. Between tonight and tomorrow afternoon, we'll have landfall, probably the eyewall hitting the Florida Bend. Everybody on that East/Northeast side of the hurricane though will have some dangerous weather to deal with. Hurricane impacts are not limited to the eyewall and where it lands. And that is especially true with a significant hurricane like this.
085
WTNT35 KNHC 292137 CCB
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Corrected Tropical Storm Warning area
...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's
River northward to Edisto Beach.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum
Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
has been discontinued.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,
Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is
forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
late Wednesday and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still
be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly
when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb
(28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. Swells affecting
portions of the southern coast of Cuba will subside tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTNT25 KNHC 292055
TCMAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.8W
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 160SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 80SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
FONT15 KNHC 292055
PWSAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 1(34) X(34)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) 1(23)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 32(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) 19(59) X(59) 1(60) X(60)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 11(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) 71(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 22(22) 64(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 28(28) 57(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KINGS BAY GA 34 2 82(84) 9(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 17(17) 17(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 34 1 89(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X 39(39) 14(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 79(81) 7(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 77(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 8 85(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
THE VILLAGES 34 11 49(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
ORLANDO FL 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PATRICK AFB 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FT PIERCE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 64 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
TAMPA FL 34 77 10(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
TAMPA FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 86 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 51(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 64(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 13 73(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
ST MARKS FL 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
APALACHICOLA 34 50 25(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
APALACHICOLA 50 3 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 93 2(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 29 14(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 7 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
ne Idalia Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products
000
WTNT45 KNHC 292056
TCDAT5
Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
The first stages of an eye have been taking shape in visible
satellite imagery. The hurricane has a relatively small Central
Dense Overcast and a prominent band of deep convection extending
over the eastern semicircle, reaching across the Florida peninsula
southward across western Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft just measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 91
kt with the pressure falling to 972 mb. The initial intensity is
therefore set at 85 kt.
Idalia is moving faster toward the north, or 360/14 kt, between a
mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a
subtropical ridge over the Greater Antilles. Idalia is expected to
continue moving northward and turn north-northeastward as it
approaches the Big Bend region of Florida during the next 12-24
hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and
the NHC official forecast has been placed very close to the HCCA
and TVCX consensus aids during the first 24 hours. This has
resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the
previous forecast, although it should be stressed that additional
shifts to the track will be possible until the center reaches land.
After landfall, Idalia is expected to turn toward the northeast and
then east, moving near or along the coast of Georgia and the
Carolinas in 36-48 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast is
still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models
turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane
models still show the storm moving out to sea. As a result, the
official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and
5.
The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt major hurricane. It
is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue
strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt shown
in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land.
Weakening is expected after landfall, but due to the system's
expected fast motion, it is possible that Idalia could maintain
hurricane intensity as it moves across southern Georgia and
approaches the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. After
Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong
shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official
forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.
2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.
3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
later tonight into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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