Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Hurricane Idalia



It is now officially a hurricane. Going to be rough for much of Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

000

WTNT35 KNHC 290856

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023


...IDALIA NOW A HURRICANE...

...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR

HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.1N 85.0W

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm 

Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa

Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Isle of Youth Cuba

* Dry Tortugas Florida

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South

Carolina


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the

progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings along the

southeast United States coast will likely be required later today.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located

by Cuban radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 85.0 West. 

Idalia is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A 

northward motion is expected today, followed by a faster 

north-northeast motion later today and Wednesday.  On the forecast 

track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern 

Gulf of Mexico today, reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the 

Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina 

coastline on Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Rapid intensification is likely through 

landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous 

major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft

Tampa Bay...4-7 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3

ft

Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.

Florida Keys...1-2 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, 

Cuba will gradually subside today.


WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within

the warning areas in western Cuba through this morning.


Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area

in Florida by late today or Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions beginning today.


Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas soon and 

within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast 

and the Florida west coast later today.


Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the 

warning area along the east coast of Florida and South Carolina

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.

coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early

Wednesday.


RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts:


Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10

inches.


Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,

southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from

today into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,

primarily near landfall in northern Florida.


This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides

across western Cuba.


Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally

significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of

Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia today into

Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas

Wednesday into Thursday.


SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the

southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan.  These swells will

spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during 

the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- 

threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 

products from your local weather office.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible later day along the

west central Florida coast.  The tornado threat will spread

northward into the Florida Big Bend by tonight.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake


000

WTNT25 KNHC 290855

TCMAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 80NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE  60SW  75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z

AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  85.0W


FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N  84.8W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

34 KT...110NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N  84.3W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W...INLAND

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT... 80NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N  80.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT... 70NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N  77.5W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.9N  74.4W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N  71.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N  85.0W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1200Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z


$$

FORECASTER BLAKE


000

FONT15 KNHC 290856

PWSAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023               

0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023                                            


AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   

23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  

65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         


Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 


CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               


PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           

        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      


PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 



  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   


               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 

  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  

             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN


FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

LOCATION       KT                                                   


CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)


OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)


WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)


NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)


OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)


ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)


RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)


CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   4(29)   1(30)

CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)


FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)


CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)


NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   2(36)   1(37)

NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  27(34)   2(36)   1(37)

MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  26(39)   1(40)   X(40)

SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)


BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  27(49)   1(50)   X(50)

BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)

BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   7(20)   X(20)   1(21)


COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)


LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)  20(49)   1(50)   X(50)

LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)

LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)  19(54)   X(54)   X(54)

MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)

MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)  13(41)   X(41)   X(41)

GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)


CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)  12(12)  50(62)   7(69)   X(69)   X(69)

CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)

CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)


BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)  23(23)  50(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)

BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)

BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)


SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  47(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)

SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


KINGS BAY GA   34  X   5( 5)  66(71)  14(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)  23(23)  21(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)


WAYCROSS GA    34  X   2( 2)  58(60)  17(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)

WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)  20(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   6( 6)  65(71)  12(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)

MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)  20(20)  14(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)

MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)


JACKSONVILLE   34  X   3( 3)  61(64)  12(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)

JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


GAINESVILLE FL 34  X  12(12)  73(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)

GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   1( 1)  32(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)

GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)


DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   5( 5)  30(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


THE VILLAGES   34  1  20(21)  48(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)

THE VILLAGES   50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


ORLANDO FL     34  1   8( 9)  23(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)


COCOA BEACH FL 34  1  11(12)  23(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)


PATRICK AFB    34  1  11(12)  24(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)


FT PIERCE FL   34  1   8( 9)  11(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)


W PALM BEACH   34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)


FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)


MIAMI FL       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


HOMESTEAD ARB  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


MARATHON FL    34  3   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)


KEY WEST FL    34  8   8(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)


NAPLES FL      34  4  38(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

NAPLES FL      50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


FT MYERS FL    34  2  24(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)


VENICE FL      34  3  78(81)   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

VENICE FL      50  X  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

VENICE FL      64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


TAMPA FL       34  2  77(79)  12(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)

TAMPA FL       50  X  16(16)  16(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

TAMPA FL       64  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


CEDAR KEY FL   34  2  65(67)  30(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)

CEDAR KEY FL   50  X  12(12)  66(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   2( 2)  44(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)


TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   7( 7)  46(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)

TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   1( 1)  21(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


ST MARKS FL    34  X  11(11)  53(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)

ST MARKS FL    50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


APALACHICOLA   34  1  36(37)  28(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)

APALACHICOLA   50  X   6( 6)  17(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

APALACHICOLA   64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)


GFMX 290N 850W 34  2  66(68)  13(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)

GFMX 290N 850W 50  X  22(22)  18(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)

GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   8( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)


PANAMA CITY FL 34  X  15(15)  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


WHITING FLD FL 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)


GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)


GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)


HAVANA         34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


ISLE OF PINES  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


$$                                                                  

FORECASTER BLAKE  


000

WTNT45 KNHC 290859

TCDAT5


Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023


Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming 

better organized.  Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more 

curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.  

Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the 

central dense overcast.  Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to 

65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.


The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at 

about 9 kt.  Idalia should move faster to the north or 

north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level 

ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of 

Mexico.  There has been a westward shift in the model guidance 

overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more 

northward before taking a north-northeast turn.  It should be 

noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members 

on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a 

reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern.  The new NHC 

forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the 

model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance. 

After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track 

forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the 

previous forecast.  


With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to 

rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower 

over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern 

Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone.  These 

changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane 

will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.  

The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is 

increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall 

Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.


KEY MESSAGES:


1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning

is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of

Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected

somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in

these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the

Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the

potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves

onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of

northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.


3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and 

may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides. 

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 

significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of 

Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today 

into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas 

Wednesday into Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  29/0900Z 23.1N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  29/1800Z 24.9N  84.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  30/0600Z 27.8N  84.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  30/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND

 48H  31/0600Z 32.7N  80.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 60H  31/1800Z 33.8N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

 72H  01/0600Z 33.9N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  02/0600Z 33.3N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  03/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH


$$

Forecaster Blake

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