It is now officially a hurricane. Going to be rough for much of Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 290856
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
...IDALIA NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
by Cuban radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 85.0 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
northward motion is expected today, followed by a faster
north-northeast motion later today and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico today, reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the
Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina
coastline on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is likely through
landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous
major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio,
Cuba will gradually subside today.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late today or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas soon and
within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast
and the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida and South Carolina
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
today into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia today into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible later day along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
000
WTNT25 KNHC 290855
TCMAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.0W
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 85.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
FONT15 KNHC 290856
PWSAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) 1(30)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 2(36) 1(37)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 2(36) 1(37)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 1(40) X(40)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 27(49) 1(50) X(50)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) X(20) 1(21)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 20(49) 1(50) X(50)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 19(54) X(54) X(54)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 13(41) X(41) X(41)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 12(12) 50(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 23(23) 50(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 47(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 66(71) 14(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 23(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 58(60) 17(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 65(71) 12(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 61(64) 12(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 12(12) 73(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 1 20(21) 48(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 1 8( 9) 23(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 11(12) 23(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
PATRICK AFB 34 1 11(12) 24(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
FT PIERCE FL 34 1 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 8 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NAPLES FL 34 4 38(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NAPLES FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 24(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
VENICE FL 34 3 78(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
VENICE FL 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
VENICE FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 2 77(79) 12(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
TAMPA FL 50 X 16(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
TAMPA FL 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 65(67) 30(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 12(12) 66(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 2( 2) 44(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 7( 7) 46(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 11(11) 53(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 36(37) 28(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
APALACHICOLA 50 X 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 66(68) 13(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 22(22) 18(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 15(15) 19(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HAVANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290859
TCDAT5
Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming
better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more
curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.
Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the
central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to
65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.
The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at
about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or
north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level
ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of
Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the
previous forecast.
With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to
rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower
over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These
changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane
will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is
increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall
Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.
3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today
into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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