Monday, August 28, 2023

Tropical Storm Idalia Update



I thought this would be a hurricane by now, guess that will come later tonight or tomorrow morning. It is right on the borderline with winds of 70 miles per hour. Intensification is expected to be rapid through tomorrow, and landfall is probably going to happen Wednesday morning in the Florida Bend. 

Tonight I heard from a lady living along the West Coast of the Central Florida Peninsula, who is still on oxygen from a bad case of COVID-19 she was fortunate to pull through. I can understand why she was leaning toward sheltering in place, but if you are anywhere within that Hurricane Warning or any of the evacuation zones, I would strongly urge you to evacuate. At the very least, find a public shelter nearby before this hurricane gets to you. Because this is likely to be a dangerous, life-threatening situation for the people who get the worst of it. And that will extend well beyond the eyewall. This is nothing to fool around with. It is serious business. Winds may be sustained at about 120 miles per hour, and the storm surge/flooding could also be significant along the West side of the Central Florida Peninsula, as well as up more in the Big Bend region, where the Panhandle meets the Peninsula. 

Just so our local weather doesn't get lost in the tropical shuffle, here is the latest forecast. Basically we'll have some more rain tomorrow, might have something isolated early Wednesday, but probably not even that . . . basically we'll be milder and drier through the Labor Day weekend with Highs in 80's and Lows in 60's. Might see a passing shower Friday, but mostly sunshine and temperatures coming back to summer levels, about 90 degrees again by Labor Day. 

192 

WTNT35 KNHC 290257

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023


...IDALIA LINGERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA...

...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...



SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W

ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida east coast

and the southeastern Georgia coast from Sebastian Inlet northward

to Altamaha Sound.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa

Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

* Isle of Youth Cuba

* Dry Tortugas Florida

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South

Carolina


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the

progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings along the

southeast United States coast will likely be required on Tuesday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was

located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 85.0 West. Idalia is

moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A northward motion

is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast 

motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center 

of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 

Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane 

Warning area on Wednesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.

Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to

become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)

from the center.  An observation in Cabo De San Antonio reported a 

wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft

Tampa Bay...4-7 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3

ft

Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.

Florida Keys...1-2 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above

normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.


WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within

the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.


Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the

tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.


Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area

in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions beginning on Tuesday.


Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas

beginning early Tuesday and within the tropical storm warning area

along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida east coast on

Tuesday.


Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.

coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early

Wednesday.


RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts:


Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10

inches.


Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,

southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from

Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,

primarily near landfall in northern Florida.


This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides

across western Cuba.


Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally

significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of

Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into

Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas

Wednesday into Thursday.


SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the

southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan.  These swells will

spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day

or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday along the 

west central Florida coast.  The tornado threat will spread 

northward into the Florida Big Bend by Tuesday night.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Pasch


000

WTNT45 KNHC 290258

TCDAT5


Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023


Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,  

with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot 

over the western part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 

restricted over the northwestern quadrant.  Radar images from 

the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.  

Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft 

indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength.  The maximum 

winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.


The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an 

initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at 

around 7 kt.  Idalia should be steered northward along the western 

side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to 

a trough to its northwest.  This track will take the center across 

the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over 

northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter.  In 2 to 3 

days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast 

will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to 

eastward off the coast of the Carolinas.  The official track 

forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous 

one.  This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are 

fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the 

ECMWF on the right side.


Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate 

northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates 

that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern 

Gulf of Mexico.  This, along with a conducive thermodynamic 

atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause 

Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame.  The 

official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system 

becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf 

coast.  This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane 

hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other

intensity guidance.


Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible 

to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall 

intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm 

surge event will occur.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning

is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of

Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected

somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in

these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the

Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the

potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves

onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of

northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.


3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across 

portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban 

flooding as well as landslides.  Areas of flash and urban flooding, 

some of which may be locally significant, are expected across 

portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and 

southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of 

the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  29/0300Z 22.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  29/1200Z 23.7N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  30/0000Z 26.2N  84.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  30/1200Z 29.0N  83.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  31/0000Z 31.5N  81.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 60H  31/1200Z 33.2N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

 72H  01/0000Z 34.0N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  02/0000Z 33.5N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH


$$

Forecaster Pasch

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