Monday, August 28, 2023

Hurricane Franklin Update



This is one powerful hurricane now, and though it is expected to past to the Northwest of Bermuda, they may still see some impacts, probably more along the lines of tropical storm impacts than hurricane-level impacts, just because it is expected to stay so far away, the core of the storm.  

000

WTNT33 KNHC 290234

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number  34

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023


...FRANKLIN A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE

COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.4N 71.0W

ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Bermuda


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was 

located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is 

moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward 

to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected 

during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of 

Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on 

Wednesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected 

overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Tuesday.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 

Force Hurricane Hunters is 926 mb (27.35 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by

Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the

southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread

northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic

Canada during the next couple of days.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by

Wednesday morning.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi


000

WTNT43 KNHC 290236

TCDAT3


Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  34

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023


Franklin remains a powerful category 4 hurricane.  Satellite images 

show a clear and circular eye with a solid and symmetric ring of 

deep convection surrounding that feature.  The Air Force Hurricane 

Hunters have investigated Franklin during the past few hours and 

found 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 140 kt and maximum 

surface SFMR winds of 128 kt.  In addition, the minimum pressure 

based on dropsonde data is estimated to be 926 mb.  Based on these 

data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, which is close to the 

upper bound of category 4 status.


The major hurricane is now moving due northward at 9 kt.  A turn to 

the northeast is expected on Tuesday, with a steady increase in 

forward speed forecast during the next few days as the hurricane 

moves in progressively faster flow between a mid-level ridge 

over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the 

northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada.  The models are in relatively 

good agreement during the next 72 hours, however, they diverge 

significantly after that.  The GFS shows a continued acceleration 

to the northeast with the trough eventually capturing Franklin. 

Conversely, the ECMWF shows the trough pulling away, leaving 

Franklin behind in weaker steering currents.  The NHC track forecast 

is roughly between those very different solutions, sticking close 

to the various consensus aids.


Franklin should maintain its strength overnight, but a steady 

weakening trend should begin on Tuesday as the hurricane moves over 

progressively cooler waters and into an environment of higher shear. 

Regardless, Franklin is expected to be a significant hurricane 

during the next few days.  Franklin should complete extratropical 

transition in 3 to 4 days when it crosses the northern wall of the 

Gulf Stream Current and moves into an environment of very strong 

shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the 

previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN models.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning

Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest

approach to the island.


2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the

coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are

expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.

east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of

days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  29/0300Z 29.4N  71.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

 12H  29/1200Z 30.5N  70.8W  130 KT 150 MPH

 24H  30/0000Z 32.1N  69.7W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  30/1200Z 33.9N  67.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  31/0000Z 35.8N  64.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

 60H  31/1200Z 38.0N  60.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  01/0000Z 40.9N  55.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  02/0000Z 45.8N  45.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  03/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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