Monday, August 28, 2023

Tropical Storm Irwin


Almost didn't notice this thing in the Pacific because we had more serious stuff closer to home. Looks nice on satellite. 
 

000

WTPZ35 KNHC 290233

TCPEP5


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102023

500 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023


...IRWIN EXPECTED TO FINALLY TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT..



SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 125.7W

ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was

located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 125.7 West. Irwin is

moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn 

toward the west is expected tonight. Irwin is then expected to 

continue heading generally westward for the next several days.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Only small changes in intensity are expected for the next day or 

so. Slow weakening is likely after that and Irwin could become 

post-tropical by mid-week.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.


$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky


000

WTPZ45 KNHC 290234

TCDEP5


Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102023

500 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023


Irwin has surprisingly recovered some of its convective organization

over the past few hours. Convection is primarily north of Irwin's

center of circulation, which may have contributed to the tropical

storm moving well to the right of NHC's forecasts for the last 18

hours or so. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak analysis from

TAFB support the 35-kt intensity analysis.


Despite its recent poleward jog, Irwin is forecast to finally turn

westward tonight. The track models are in very good agreement now

on the forecast for Irwin, so only a small northward adjustment was

made to the NHC track forecast to account for Irwin's recent

right-of-track motion. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of

Irwin should keep the cyclone moving westward for the majority of

the forecast period, whether it retains its tropical cyclone status

or not. The NHC track forecast is based on the variable track

consensus aid TVCN.


Despite cool waters beneath Irwin and dry air surrounding the

tropical cyclone, simulated satellite imagery from most dynamical

models continues to indicate that Irwin will sustain some deep

convection for at least a couple more days. Small fluctuations in

intensity are possible during that period. Sooner or later, the

environment should cause Irwin to weaken and become post-tropical.

No changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  29/0300Z 19.3N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  29/1200Z 19.5N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  30/0000Z 19.2N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  30/1200Z 19.1N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  31/0000Z 19.1N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 60H  31/1200Z 19.3N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  01/0000Z 19.4N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  02/0000Z 19.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  03/0000Z 19.6N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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