Tropical Depression 10 has formed and is expected to reach hurricane strength before most likely hitting that sweet spot between the Florida Panhandle and the Northern Florida Peninsula about Tuesday or Wednesday. It is up against moderate vertical wind shear, but the waters are quite warm, about 90 degrees, the waters it will be moving through to get to Florida.
There are already Tropical Storm Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula and a Tropical Storm Watch for Western Cuba. This tropical cyclone is likely to intensify rapidly over the next few days. Ultimately it will probably pass through Southern Georgia and then graze through the Eastern parts of the Carolinas before going into the Atlantic.
However, keep in mind that aircraft has not gone in and investigated this yet. So forecasts are limited by a lack of data, only what we can see by remote sensing.
And Hurricane Franklin is expected to stay West of the Island of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday. But it is also expected to strengthen to a major hurricane. So some impacts are possible well away from the eyewall. And depending on the exact track, tourists or residents there may need to look into going to one of their shelters. They have great preparedness there and have had major hurricanes hit there before. This one probably stays a bit to the West over the waters, but it is a close call considering the expected strength of the hurricane.
Folks in Florida, absolutely be ready to implement your hurricane safety plans for what will soon be Tropical Storm Gert and then may become Hurricane Gert. It will probably make landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday. So we've only got a few more days, situation may develop quickly. But you've got some time to make sure your safety plans are ready to go. So please pay attention to this and take the precautions you feel are reasonable.
345
WTNT35 KNHC 262047
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos,
including Cozumel.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
extreme western Cuba for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the
Isle of Youth.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is
expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is
expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center
will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash
and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast
and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western
Cuba beginning on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
952
WTNT25 KNHC 262047
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.1W
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 262053
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.
The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.
2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 21.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT33 KNHC 262043
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023
...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 67.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 67.5 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the western
Atlantic through early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Franklin
could become a major hurricane early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend
into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United
States. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
000
WTNT23 KNHC 262043
TCMAT3
HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 67.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 67.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 67.3W
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.7N 68.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 69.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.7N 69.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.3N 69.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N 69.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.2N 65.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 39.1N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 67.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH
000
WTNT43 KNHC 262044
TCDAT3
Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023
Visible and microwave satellite imagery show Franklin is becoming a
well organized hurricane. AMSR2 microwave data showed a closed
mid-level core that was vertically aligned with the low-level
center. The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may
be trying to develop. Deep convection has become more symmetrical,
wrapping around the center throughout the day. NOAA Hurricane
Hunters were in the system earlier this afternoon, with flight-level
winds and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of around 70 kt. The
UW-CIMSS ADT objective satellite estimates have been rising this
afternoon as well. Given the improved satellite structure combined
with the earlier data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be in the system later this evening.
Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 7 kt. A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next
few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By
the middle of next week, a faster northeast to east-northeast motion
is expected between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over
eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. In the short
range, models once again have trended westward, and the official NHC
forecast has been nudged west as well. For the long term, models,
including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the
right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term,
but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the
long-term forecast track is lower than usual.
Franklin has been steadily strengthening throughout the day. Further
strengthening is forecast during the next few days with lower
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western
Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early
next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days
with shear expected to increase over the system at that time. By day
5, the current forecast track takes the system over much cooler
SSTs. However, the intensity in the long range will be dependent on
the eventual forecast track of Franklin. The current intensity
forecast lies near the consensus aids, but still slightly lower than
the HCCA aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 23.8N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 24.7N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 25.9N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.1N 69.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.7N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.3N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.0N 69.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.2N 65.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 39.1N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
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