Saturday, August 26, 2023

Tropical Depression Ten Has Formed/Hurricane Franklin To Pass West of Bermuda





Tropical Depression 10 has formed and is expected to reach hurricane strength before most likely hitting that sweet spot between the Florida Panhandle and the Northern Florida Peninsula about Tuesday or Wednesday. It is up against moderate vertical wind shear, but the waters are quite warm, about 90 degrees, the waters it will be moving through to get to Florida. 

There are already Tropical Storm Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula and a Tropical Storm Watch for Western Cuba. This tropical cyclone is likely to intensify rapidly over the next few days. Ultimately it will probably pass through Southern Georgia and then graze through the Eastern parts of the Carolinas before going into the Atlantic. 

However, keep in mind that aircraft has not gone in and investigated this yet. So forecasts are limited by a lack of data, only what we can see by remote sensing. 



 And Hurricane Franklin is expected to stay West of the Island of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday. But it is also expected to strengthen to a major hurricane. So some impacts are possible well away from the eyewall. And depending on the exact track, tourists or residents there may need to look into going to one of their shelters. They have great preparedness there and have had major hurricanes hit there before. This one probably stays a bit to the West over the waters, but it is a close call considering the expected strength of the hurricane. 

Folks in Florida, absolutely be ready to implement your hurricane safety plans for what will soon be Tropical Storm Gert and then may become Hurricane Gert. It will probably make landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday. So we've only got a few more days, situation may develop quickly. But you've got some time to make sure your safety plans are ready to go. So please pay attention to this and take the precautions you feel are reasonable. 

345 

WTNT35 KNHC 262047

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...



SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.1N 86.1W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for

the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos,

including Cozumel.


The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for

extreme western Cuba for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the

Isle of Youth.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 

issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was

located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. The

depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is

expected through Sunday.  A slow, generally northward, motion is

expected to begin on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center

will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the

system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO

header WTNT45 KNHC.


RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall

amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,

across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Across western 

Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum 

amounts of 12 inches, are expected.  This rainfall may lead to flash 

and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.  


Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast 

and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions 

of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.  Tropical 

storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western 

Cuba beginning on Sunday.


STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical 

Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore 

winds.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Pasch


952 

WTNT25 KNHC 262047

TCMAT5


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.1W AT 26/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.1W AT 26/2100Z

AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.1W


FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N  86.3W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.


FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N  86.2W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.8N  86.1W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N  85.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  86.1W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z


$$

FORECASTER PASCH


000

WTNT45 KNHC 262053

TCDAT5


Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023


The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the

northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become

better organized today.  Radar observations show a circulation has

developed, although surface observations indicate that the western

semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time.  Given 

the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on 

Tropical Depression Ten.  Surface synoptic observations suggest that 

the current intensity is around 25 kt.


The current motion estimate is nearly stationary.  There is a 

weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical 

cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow. 

The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in 

weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little 

motion is predicted during that period.  After that time, a 

mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone. 

This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3 

days.  Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as 

the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.  The 

official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected 

dynamical model consensus guidance.


The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only

moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several

days.  Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast.  The official

forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the 

system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Users 

are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day 

intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future 

forecasts.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across

the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall

may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as

landslides, across western Cuba.  The depression is forecast to

become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are

expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical

Storm Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible

over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.


2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days

and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,

bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and

strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the

Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.  Heavy rainfall is

also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to

late next week.  Although it is too soon to specify the exact

location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas

should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure

that they have their hurricane plan in place.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  27/0600Z 21.0N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  27/1800Z 20.9N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  28/0600Z 20.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  28/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  29/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  29/1800Z 26.3N  85.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

120H  31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND


$$

Forecaster Pasch


000

WTNT33 KNHC 262043

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023


...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.8N 67.5W

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was

located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 67.5 West. Franklin is

moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a

north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the western

Atlantic through early next week.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Further strengthening is forecast, and Franklin

could become a major hurricane early next week.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting

Bermuda by Sunday night.  These swells are also likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend

into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United

States.  Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster Kelly/Pasch


000

WTNT23 KNHC 262043

TCMAT3


HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082023

2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  67.5W AT 26/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......120NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  67.5W AT 26/2100Z

AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  67.3W


FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.7N  68.1W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  10NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.


FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.9N  68.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.

50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N  69.6W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.7N  69.9W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.3N  69.9W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N  69.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.2N  65.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 39.1N  56.5W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  67.5W


NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z


$$

FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH


000

WTNT43 KNHC 262044

TCDAT3


Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023



Visible and microwave satellite imagery show Franklin is becoming a 

well organized hurricane. AMSR2 microwave data showed a closed 

mid-level core that was vertically aligned with the low-level 

center. The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may 

be trying to develop. Deep convection has become more symmetrical, 

wrapping around the center throughout the day. NOAA Hurricane 

Hunters were in the system earlier this afternoon, with flight-level 

winds and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of around 70 kt. The 

UW-CIMSS ADT objective satellite estimates have been rising this 

afternoon as well. Given the improved satellite structure combined 

with the earlier data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the initial 

intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force 

Hurricane Hunters will be in the system later this evening.


Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 7 kt.  A 

north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next 

few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a 

mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday.  By 

the middle of next week, a faster northeast to east-northeast motion 

is expected between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over 

eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. In the short 

range, models once again have trended westward, and the official NHC 

forecast has been nudged west as well. For the long term, models, 

including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the 

right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term, 

but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the 

long-term forecast track is lower than usual.


Franklin has been steadily strengthening throughout the day. Further 

strengthening is forecast during the next few days with lower 

vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western 

Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early 

next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days 

with shear expected to increase over the system at that time. By day 

5, the current forecast track takes the system over much cooler 

SSTs. However, the intensity in the long range will be dependent on 

the eventual forecast track of Franklin. The current intensity 

forecast lies near the consensus aids, but still slightly lower than 

the HCCA aid.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  26/2100Z 23.8N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  27/0600Z 24.7N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  27/1800Z 25.9N  68.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  28/0600Z 27.1N  69.6W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  28/1800Z 28.7N  69.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  29/0600Z 30.3N  69.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  29/1800Z 32.0N  69.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  30/1800Z 35.2N  65.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  31/1800Z 39.1N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH


$$

Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

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