Sunday, August 27, 2023

Tropical Depression Ten Likely To Become a Hurricane


I made a serious error lately. The names Gert and Harold have already been used for some "junk" systems in the Atlantic. So this hurricane will be called Idalia, which will also be the name if it were to stay at tropical storm strength. I was calling it "Gert" because the last storm on the board was "Franklin". But the systems called "Gert" and "Harold" have already dissipated before "Franklin". This will be Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Idalia. I do think it will become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and so does the National Hurricane Center. As you can read below. 

Usually I don't like to speculate too much before an aircraft has gone in and gotten measurements from a system. But this strikes me as a volatile situation for whoever is in the path of this in Florida. They already have Tropical Storm Warnings for places like Cozumel in Mexico and Pinar del Rio in Cuba. And I think as we get into the new week, we will see a Hurricane Watch or Warning for somewhere along the Florida coast. The reason I trimmed it back to only the next three days of the most likely track is to emphasize how broad the area in the path is, based on the information we have right now. Everyone along the Florida coast should have their hurricane safety plan ready to go for whatever happens in this new week. This thing could intensify rapidly as it moves through those hot Gulf waters. Unless the low/moderate upper-level shear were to keep that in check. Some of it will also depend on the system's forward speed, how much time it has to intensify over those waters. 

 000

WTNT35 KNHC 270553

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN

A FEW DAYS...



SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

* Pinar del Rio Cuba


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Isle of Youth Cuba


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was 

located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West.  The 

depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and 

it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early 

Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is 

expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern 

Gulf of Mexico.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher

gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few

days.  The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later 

today and a hurricane by Tuesday.  


A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind 

of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) 

based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO

header WTNT45 KNHC.


RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall

amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,

across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Across western

Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches, are expected.  This rainfall may lead to

flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.


Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast

of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late

week.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions

of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western 

Cuba tonight or Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 

within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.


STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical

Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore

winds.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake


000

WTNT25 KNHC 270243

TCMAT5


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.4W AT 27/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   2 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.4W AT 27/0300Z

AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  86.3W


FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.9N  86.4W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N  86.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N  85.9W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.1N  85.7W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  40NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N  85.5W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  60NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N  84.8W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  25NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE  80SW  70NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N  81.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.2N  76.7W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  86.4W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z


$$

FORECASTER BERG

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