A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour now, which makes this already a tropical storm. This system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane between now and the time of landfall, which is expected to be in Florida, especially places from about Tallahassee to Jacksonville to Orlando will be at risk from this developing hurricane if it stays on its current track. And remember that especially if a hurricane intensifies rapidly over the kinds of waters that the Gulf of Mexico has right now, the impacts can extend well away from the eyewall, most of those impacts on the East/Northeast side of the storm. My personal gut feeling is that this will be a hurricane with potential for significant impacts. If you are in or near the cone of the basic path of this tropical storm, soon to be a hurricane, please make sure you are prepared - follow this link for reminders about hurricane safety. And if you were to get an evacuation order in the next couple days, I'd pay attention to it with this hurricane. It's not a hurricane yet, but I don't see anything stopping it from becoming one and firing up quickly over those Gulf waters. There is some moderate vertical wind shear, but I don't think it's going to simmer this thing down much.
And I know that Jacksonville is pretty far inland. But looking at the track of this and thinking about its potential intensity at landfall and how it may sustain some strength after moving inland, I would not rule out significant impacts there either. Today is Sunday. This thing may hit as early as Tuesday, sure looks like it will hit the Florida coast by Wednesday. So there's not a lot of time to hem-haw around. I'm gonna' tell you what I really think. It's a roll of the dice as to whether this becomes a major hurricane in technical terms, like has winds strong enough to be at least a Category 3. Rapid intensification certainly is possible over these very warm waters. And even before it has hit the best conditions for that rapid intensification, it has become a tropical storm. But regardless of the exact details of its strength in pure sustained wind speeds, this has the feel of a hurricane that has the power to do significant damage. I was waiting to say that until the aircraft investigated it. And they found it is already strengthening quickly. The model guidance has been in great agreement as to the general track of it too. Unless that changes tonight after the models have digested all the aircraft data, then I think this is a high-confidence forecast. For this soon to be hurricane. And everybody in the danger zone with this needs to consider the possibility that this could be a significant hurricane. Sometimes it's the wind speeds that make the impact significant, sometimes it's more to do with the storm surge or other factors. But please take this one seriously. This does not look good for whoever it ends up hitting the hardest. And if you're in that zone, you're going to need to take the best precautions that you can. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts, and if you get an evacuation order, get out. If you can safely shelter in place, then trust your best judgement about that. But if I was down there near the coast in any of the areas within that cone outlined by the Hurricane Center, I would be thinking about visiting some folks back in Alabama already. There are still details to be ironed out, but this could be a hurricane with significant impacts. And I would make decisions based on that possibility.
000
WTNT65 KNHC 271513
TCUAT5
Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT35 KNHC 271459
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Storm surge and wind watches for portions of the Florida west coast
will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight.
A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the
system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm today, and
strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.
Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba
tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 271502
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diez Advertencia Número 4
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL102023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1000 AM CDT domingo 27 de agosto de 2023
...LA DEPRESIÓN PODRÍA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
CUALQUIER MOMENTO...
...SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA EN UN HURACÁN SOBRE EL ESTE DEL
GOLFO DE MÉXICO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...19.9N 85.8O
ALREDEDOR DE 80 MI...135 KM ESE DE COZUMEL MÉXICO
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...E O 90 GRADOS A 2 MPH...4 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS EN ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
Ninguno.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Península de Yucatán desde Tulum hasta Río Lagartos, incluyendo
Cozumel
* Pinar del Río Cuba
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Isla de la Juventud Cuba
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de tormenta
tropical son anticipadas en algún punto dentro del área del aviso.
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de la vigilancia.
Los intereses en Florida deben monitorear el progreso de este
sistema. Las vigilancias de marejada ciclónica y viento para
sectores de la costa oeste de Florida probablemente se requieran más
tarde hoy.
Para información de tormenta específica en su área, favor de
monitorear los productos emitidos por su servicio nacional de
meteorología.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diez estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 19.9 Norte, longitud 85.8
Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el este a cerca de 2 mph
(4 km/h), y es probable que serpentee cerca del Canal de Yucatán
hasta esta noche. Se espera un movimiento más rápido hacia el
norte el lunes, llevando el sistema sobre el este del Golfo de
México.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera que la depresión se convierta en una
tormenta tropical hoy, y se fortalezca en un huracán el martes.
La presión central mínima estimada es 1001 mb (29.56 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para este sistema se pueden encontrar en la
Discusión de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT5 de AWIPS y
encabezado WTNT45 KNHC.
LLUVIA: Se espera que el sistema produzca las siguientes cantidades
de lluvia:
Porciones del este de Yucatán: De 2 a 4 pulgadas, con totales
aislados más altos de 6 pulgadas.
Oeste de Cuba: De 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales aislados más altos de
10 pulgadas.
Porciones de la costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y el
sur de Georgia: Desde el martes hasta el miércoles, de 3 a 6
pulgadas, con totales aislados más altos de 10 pulgadas.
También es probable que la lluvia fuerte se extienda en sectores de
las Carolinas el miércoles hasta el jueves.
Esta lluvia puede conducir a inundaciones repentinas e urbanas, y
deslizamientos de tierra en el oeste de Cuba. También se pueden
esperar inundaciones repentinas e inundaciones urbanas dispersas en
sectores de la costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y
sectores del sureste de los Estados Unidos el martes hasta el jueves.
VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical sobre sectores
del área bajo aviso sobre la Península de Yucatán hoy y el oeste de
Cuba esta noche o el lunes. Las condiciones de tormenta tropical
son posibles dentro del área bajo vigilancia en la Isla de la
Juventud esta noche o el lunes.
MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: Se esperan inundaciones costeras menores dentro
del área de Aviso de Tormenta Tropical sobre la Península de Yucatán
en áreas de vientos costeros.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 100 PM CDT.
Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 PM CDT.
$$
Pronosticador Pasch
000
WTNT25 KNHC 271458
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 86.3W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
FONT15 KNHC 271459
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 3(41)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 2(43)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 1(27)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 31(51) X(51)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) 1(50)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 1(31)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 14(35) X(35)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 1(29)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 1(29)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) X(34) X(34)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) 1(52) X(52)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 4(57) X(57)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 10(64) X(64)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) 1(36)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38) X(38)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 9(55) 1(56)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) 6(63) X(63)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) X(33)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 8(43) X(43)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 3(29) X(29)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
COZUMEL MX 34 6 14(20) 4(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 18(19) 39(58) 9(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 271500
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.
The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.
The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to
low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48
to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72
hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model
guidance.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast,
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by
local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.
2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding
and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of
Youth.
3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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