Sunday, August 27, 2023

Hurricane Franklin Update



This is expected to become a major hurricane soon and pass to the North and West of Bermuda about mid-week. People in Bermuda still need to monitor this since it is a close shave, and see what the impacts will be. They are really good about getting people into shelters when there is a danger there. Ever since I saw them ride out a major hurricane in the past, I don't really worry about people there. I only wish that mentality would catch on more in the mainland United States. We are letting a little island where people go for vacation to put us to shame in hurricane safety. That can change. If the right people are willing to change it in the future. 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 272041

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023


...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...

...LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST 

COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.9N 70.0W

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was 

located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 70.0 West. Franklin is 

moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion 

will continue through tonight, followed by a northward and 

north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week.


Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher 

gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is 

forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting 

Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause 

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the 

beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the 

United States. Please consult products from your local weather 

office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster Kelly/Pasch


723 

WTCA43 TJSJ 272047

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Huracán Franklin Advertencia Número 29

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL082023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 

500 PM AST domingo 27 de agosto de 2023


...SE PRONOSTICA QUE FRANKLIN SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACÁN INTENSO EL 

LUNES...

...POSIBLES CORRIENTES MARINAS Y OLEAJE AMENANZANTE A LA VIDA A 

LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...



RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...25.9N 70.0O

ALREDEDOR DE 320 MI...515 KM NNE DE ISLA DE GRAND TURK

ALREDEDOR DE 535 MI...855 KM SO DE BERMUDA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO NO O 330 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...970 MB...28.65 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


Intereses en las Bermudas deben monitorear el progreso de este 

sistema.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro del Huracán Franklin estaba 

localizado cerca de la latitud 25.9 Norte, longitud 70.0 Oeste.  

Franklin se está moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a cerca de 8 mph 

(13 km/h). Este movimiento continuará hasta esta noche, seguido de 

un movimiento hacia el norte y norte-noreste hasta la primera parte 

de la semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 100 mph (155 km por 

hora) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento 

adicional, y se pronostica que Franklin se convierta en un huracán 

intenso el lunes.


Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden a unas 25 millas (35 

km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se 

extienden a unas 140 millas (220 km).


La presión central mínima estimada es 907 mb (28.65 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Franklin comiencen 

a afectar a Bermuda esta noche. También es probable que estas 

marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas que 

amenacen la vida hasta el comienzo de esta semana a lo largo de 

sectores de la costa este de los Estados Unidos. Favor de consultar 

productos de su oficina local de meteorología.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

La próxima advertencia completa será a las 1100 PM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Kelly/Pasch


000

WTNT23 KNHC 272040

TCMAT3


HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082023

2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  70.0W AT 27/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT.......120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  70.0W AT 27/2100Z

AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  69.7W


FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N  70.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N  71.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.0N  70.9W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N  69.9W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.2N  68.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.5N  65.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW  90NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 37.1N  58.4W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 41.0N  50.8W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  69.9W


NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z


$$

FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH


000

FONT13 KNHC 272041

PWSAT3


HURRICANE FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29              

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082023               

2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023                                            


AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 

26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  

90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        


Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 


CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               


PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           

        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      


PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 



  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   


               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 

  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  

             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI


FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

LOCATION       KT                                                   


HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)


CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)


ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)


SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)


BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  51(60)   4(64)   X(64)

BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   3(23)   X(23)

BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)


$$                                                                  

FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH                                              


790 

WTNT43 KNHC 272042

TCDAT3


Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023


Visible and infrared satellite imagery has improved slightly since 

this morning, with a tight inner core developing around the center. 

There have been hints of an eye developing in infrared and visible 

images throughout the day, but the eye remains cloud filled. 

Franklin is still dealing with a little bit of drier mid-level dry 

air trying to wrap into the eastern side. Subjective and objective 

Dvorak estimates have remained steady throughout the day today. With 

these estimates combined with the lower surface pressure reported by 

the aircraft, the initial intensity remains at 85 kt this advisory. 

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system 

later this evening.


Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for the next few days, 

with very warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear 

forecast to decrease. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and 

Franklin could become a major hurricane on Monday. In about 3 to 4 

days, weakening is forecast as Franklin encounters increased shear 

and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast 

to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.


Franklin is moving northwestward at 8 kt, around a broad 

high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin. This ridge will steer 

the system more north-northwestward and northward over the next 

couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep 

trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast, and most of the 

guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, 

with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The official 

NHC forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, with only 

slight adjustments to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast track 

still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, 

but interests there should continue to monitor the latest NHC 

forecasts. By day 5, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper 

trough and begin an extratropical transition, although that is not 

explicitly forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  27/2100Z 25.9N  70.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  28/0600Z 27.0N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  28/1800Z 28.5N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  29/0600Z 30.0N  70.9W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  29/1800Z 31.5N  69.9W  115 KT 130 MPH

 60H  30/0600Z 33.2N  68.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  30/1800Z 34.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  31/1800Z 37.1N  58.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  01/1800Z 41.0N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH


$$

Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

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