000
WTNT35 KNHC 272353
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
...IDALIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.4 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow,
possibly erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally
northward to north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward
speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast late Tuesday.
Buoy observations indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to
become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday. Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches
the northeastern Gulf coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 over the far northwestern
Caribbean Sea recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68
km/h) and a wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on the Isle of Youth on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 6 inches.
Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also
be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the
Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday
into Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 272358
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
Tormenta Tropical Idalia Advertencia Intermedia Número 5A
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL102023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
700 PM CDT domingo 27 de agosto de 2023
...IDALIA UN POCO MÁS FUERTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...20.1N 85.4O
ALREDEDOR DE 100 MI...165 KM ESE DE COZUMEL MÉXICO
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ENE O 70 GRADOS A 3 MPH...6 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...995 MB...29.39 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS EN ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
Ninguno.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Península de Yucatán desde Tulum hasta Río Lagartos, incluyendo
Cozumel
* Pinar del Río Cuba
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...
* Chokoloskee hasta Indian Pass Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay
Una Vigilancia de Huracán está en efecto para...
* Englewood hasta Indian Pass Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Isla de la Juventud Cuba
* Sur de Englewood hasta Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una
posibilidad de inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del
agua que se mueve tierra adentro desde la costa, en los lugares
indicados durante las próximas 48 horas. Para una descripción de
las áreas bajo riesgo, favor de referirse a los gráficos de
Vigilancias/Avisos de Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de
Meteorología, disponibles en hurricanes.gov.
Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que las condiciones de huracán
son posibles dentro del área bajo vigilancia. Por lo general, una
vigilancia se emite 48 horas antes del comienzo de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, cuando las condiciones hacen difíciles
a las preparaciones exteriores.
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de tormenta
tropical son anticipadas en algún punto dentro del área del aviso.
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de la vigilancia.
Los intereses a lo largo de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos
deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Vigilancias y avisos
adicionales probablemente serán requeridos el lunes.
Para información de tormenta específica en su área, favor de
monitorear los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico
nacional.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical
Idalia estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 20.1 Norte, longitud
85.4 Oeste. Idalia se está moviendo hacia el este-noreste a cerca
de 3 mph (6 km/h). Se espera un movimiento lento, posiblemente
errático, durante la noche. Se espera un movimiento generalmente
hacia el norte a norte-noreste con una velocidad de traslación en
aumento el lunes y el martes. En la trayectoria pronosticada, el
centro se moverá sobre el este del Golfo de México el lunes y el
martes, y se acercará a la costa noreste del Golfo tarde el martes.
Las observaciones de la boya indican que los vientos máximos
sostenidos de Idalia han aumentado a cerca de 45 mph (75 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional y
se espera que Idalia se convierta en un huracán sobre el sureste del
Golfo de México temprano el martes. Es probable un fortalecimiento
adicional mientras Idalia se acerca a la costa noreste del Golfo.
Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 70
millas (110 km) desde el centro. La boya 42056 de NOAA sobre el
noroeste del Mar Caribe informó recientemente un viento sostenido de
42 mph (68 km/h) y una ráfaga de viento hasta 49 mph (79 km/h).
La presión mínima central estimada es de 995 mb (29.39 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Idalia se pueden encontrar en la Discusión
de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT5 de AWIPS y
encabezado WTNT45 KNHC, y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica
peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca
de la costa se inunden por el aumento de las aguas que se mueven
tierra adentro desde la costa. El nivel del agua pudiera alcanzar
la siguiente altura por encima del nivel de la superficie en algún
lugar dentro de las áreas indicadas si el máximo de la marejada
ocurre al mismo tiempo que la marea alta...
Aucilla River, FL hasta Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 pies
Chassahowitzka, FL hasta Anclote River, FL...5-8 pies
Ochlockonee River, FL hasta Aucilla River, FL...4-7 pies
Anclote River, FL hasta Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 pies
Tampa Bay...3-5 pies Middle of Longboat Key, FL hasta
Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 pies
Charlotte Harbor..2-4 pies
Indian Pass, FL hasta Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 pies
Chokoloskee, FL hasta East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 pies
Florida Keys...1-2 pies
El agua más profunda ocurrirá a lo largo de la costa inmediata en
áreas de vientos costeros, donde el oleaje estará acompañado de olas
grandes y peligrosas. Las inundaciones relacionadas con las
marejadas dependen del momento relativo de la marejada y el ciclo de
la marea, y pueden variar mucho en distancias cortas. Para
información específica en su área, favor de referirse a los
productos emitidos por su oficina local de pronóstico del Servicio
Nacional de Meteorología.
La marejada ciclónica elevará los niveles de agua hasta 2 a 4 pies
por encima de los niveles de la marea normal a lo largo de la costa
sur de Pinar del Río, Cuba. Cerca de la costa, la marejada estará
acompañada por oleaje alto.
VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical sobre sectores
del área bajo aviso sobre la Península de Yucatán y el oeste de Cuba
hasta el lunes. Las condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles
dentro del área bajo vigilancia en la Isla de la Juventud el lunes.
Las condiciones de huracán son posibles dentro del área bajo
vigilancia de huracán tarde el martes o el miércoles, con
condiciones de tormenta tropical posibles el martes.
Las condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles en Dry Tortugas
comenzando tarde el lunes y dentro del área bajo vigilancia de
tormenta tropical a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de Florida el
martes.
LLUVIA: Se espera que Idalia produzca las siguientes cantidades de
lluvia:
Porciones del este de la Península de Yucatán: 2 a 4 pulgadas, con
totales aislados más altos de 6 pulgadas.
Oeste de Cuba: de 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales aislados más altos de
10 pulgadas.
Porciones de la costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y el
sur de Georgia: Desde el martes hasta el miércoles, 3 a 6 pulgadas,
con totales aislados más altos de 10 pulgadas.
También es probable que la lluvia fuerte se extienda en sectores de
las Carolinas el miércoles hasta el jueves.
Esta lluvia puede conducir a inundaciones repentinas e urbanas, y
deslizamientos de tierra en el oeste de Cuba. También se pueden
esperar inundaciones repentinas e urbanas dispersas en sectores de
la costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y sectores del
sureste de los Estados Unidos el martes hasta el jueves.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 PM EDT.
$$
Pronosticador Berg
000
WTNT25 KNHC 272049
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 85.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
FONT15 KNHC 272050
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 2(28)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 17(38) X(38)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 11(41) 1(42)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) 1(25)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 4(56) X(56)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 2(31) X(31)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 3(55) X(55)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 2(37) X(37)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) X(42) X(42)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27) X(27)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) X(29) X(29)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) X(23) X(23)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 16(52) X(52) X(52)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 18(30) X(30) X(30)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 32(71) X(71) X(71)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 47(71) X(71) X(71)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 61(73) 1(74) X(74)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) X(41) X(41)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 1(37) X(37)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 1(48) X(48)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 1(57) X(57)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 1(34) X(34)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 9 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 11 67(78) 8(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 28(28) 17(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 18(20) 10(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 272059
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
Idalia's cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better
organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently
restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.
The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission
into the storm is scheduled for tonight.
The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the
initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak
steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic
motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level
ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during
the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United
states will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an
increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again
shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous
one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is
also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.
The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be
traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist.
The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be
compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.
There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance,
ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a
little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher
end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor
future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength
of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the
hurricane and storm surge watch areas.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of
Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to
the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm
surge and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Scattered flash and urban flooding can be expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. Flooding
from heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the southeast U.S. by
mid to late week.
3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm
conditions possible on the Isle of Youth.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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