Thursday, March 14, 2024

Severe T-Storm Warning Shoals


8:03 PM - Time for a radar update. 


And people in Hardin County TN need to stay sheltered, also in Lauderdale County up around the Shoals. Until these storms pass or weaken. They may not weaken quickly since they are somewhat isolated cells this evening. 

People in Wayne County, Tennessee, places like Waynesboro, I'd go ahead and be getting ready to go to a safe place. You've got two severe thunderstorms coming in your general direction. So I'd just play it safe before the warning comes out. 

8:11 PM - Folks in Giles County, TN up toward Pulaski, also please carefully monitor the progress of these storms, especially the one coming out of the Shoals, since it has a confirmed history of wind damage. Be ready to go to a safe place quickly if you need to. 

8:16 - Thanks to Gerald Satterwhite for a good storm spotter class, SKYWARN training, tonight. Seen his name on a lot of National Weather Service products over the years, seems like he does some of the better forecast discussions. 

8:18 - And now the Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Wayne County, the bulk of this storm now up across the Tennessee border. 


There is also a thunderstorm intensifying in Southern Cullman County, down around places like Bremen and Dodge City. 

And it appears that I made a mistake - this warning in Tennessee does include Wayne but also Lawrenceburg, so Wayne and Lawrence Counties in Tennessee, Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 9 PM. 

Move away from any windows in a house. 

And if you can, be in a small room or hallway on the lower floor, not up in a wide open area on the top floor. Also better if you can be in a sturdy house rather than a mobile home, especially if you've got trees around. 


Things have split into two distinct storms. One is still back in Eastern Hardin County, approaching the border of Wayne County, still showing signs of being severe. And the other is moving out of Wayne County, Eastern Wayne County, into Lawrence County, up there across the Tennessee border. 

That storm in Southern Cullman County is currently not severe, but communities like Hanceville, Garden City, back to Dodge City, are still dealing with a strong little thunderstorm. Looks like it is past Colony and Bremen. And the thunderstorm actually extends down to Smoke Rise. Can hear thunder from it in city of Cullman. 



8:30 PM - Here is a better look at what's going on up in Tennessee. Mainly just seeing an uptick in lightning on the Cullman County storm on Alabama side. It will likely stay below severe limits, but since the storms threw us a curveball or two tonight, keeping an eye on anything that develops in case it were to pulse up. 

That storm moving through Belmont and Red Bay is on the strong side too but not severe at this point. 


8:35 - Looks like we got it easy compared to some of our neighboring states. The Storm Prediction Center is advising Little Rock that they could see a tornado within the next hour and that it could do significant damage, like the parameters there are maxing out for a tornado. 

Around here our wind shear is a lot weaker, and just everything is on the borderline-side for a few severe thunderstorms. But it has been an organized severe weather event for some in the Mid-South up into the Ohio Valley today. 

Here is a pretty video from earlier today when a tornado crossed the Ohio River in Madison, Indiana.  


8:45 - Next we're watching that squall line approaching Western Tennessee. As long as you have a weather radio to wake you up, it is fine to go to sleep. As long as you can get to a safe place in a timely manner if a warning is required and the machine does wake you up for it later tonight or early tomorrow morning. 



8:51 - That severe thunderstorm is now moving up toward Mount Pleasant in Tennessee. The other strong storms are currently below severe limits. The Lawrence County (TN) EMA measured a wind gust of 57 mph when it came through there. 



8:57 - And out in Little Rock, Arkansas, they have their tornado warning. This storm will bear careful watching, hard to confirm things at night, anybody in polygon needs to take their tornado precautions, small central room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows, cover body, especially head. 



9:15 PM - Rotation looks sort of broad, but that warning goes for about 30 more minutes and does include Northern and Western Little Rock. I would respect it if I was out there. 

9:19 - And it seems significant tornado damage has happened in Indian Lake, Ohio, while I was watching other stuff. We are lucky to be getting the leftovers of this particular system. 



9:21 - Here back at the ranch, we have strong thunderstorms that may be producing gusty winds and some small hail, but are below severe limits. 



We do have a marginal risk of some more isolated severe thunderstorms overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. 


We are watching storms within or along the leading edge of that squall line that is crossing the Mississippi River. Our environment here will not be as favorable for severe weather as what they've had in places like Arkansas or up into Ohio or Indiana, not even close. But some low-end risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two does exist around here. We saw some slightly ahead of schedule this evening. I was thinking about writing a forecast when I saw the stuff going on in Northwest Alabama. So forecasts can wait until this threat is out of the way, even though the threat is definitely on the low end. 


It has been a decent severe weather event across several states today, from the Plains through the Mid-South into the Ohio River Valley. It has mainly been large hail and damaging winds, but so far, the tornado count nationwide is up to eight. And some of them sound like they did significant damage. I heard of some people trapped in Ohio, I believe it was, but was not able to confirm so far. It's been that kind of day though, when that can happen. Major thanks to all our emergency workers who do the best they can knowing they're never gonna' get rich for it. Sometimes they really shine during severe weather events. 

Quick overview of our weather before I log off for a while:

Tomorrow we have rain and storms, could see an isolated severe thunderstorm, High near 70. The severe weather threat will probably be over by Noon or sooner, but rain may continue through the night. 

Saturday is now looking partly to mostly sunny with a High near 70 again. Might see some isolated rain Sunday, but probably just an increase in clouds before the system finishing kicking out of here, High in upper 60's. 

Monday begins the cold air behind this front, mostly sunny skies, starting the day near 40 degrees, warming to about 55 or so in afternoon. 

Then the majorly cold, dry air gets here Tuesday morning, with frost or even a hard freeze likely for most of us, the morning Low near 30 degrees or even upper 20's in spots (especially across TN line), then warming to upper 50's in afternoon, sunny skies. 

It warms up pretty rapidly after that, Wednesday still a Low in 30's, probably at least mid-30's, maybe upper 30's, then mid-maybe-upper-60's in afternoon. 

Then Thursday increasing clouds and a High near 70 again, Low around 40 or so. Not seeing any significant rain chances for the next week, after tomorrow, but will watch trends going into next weekend, which for now, is beyond the scope of a seven-day-forecast. 

Hasta luego.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

ALC033-077-150115-

/O.NEW.KHUN.SV.W.0011.240315T0049Z-240315T0115Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

749 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Central Lauderdale County in northwestern Alabama...

  Central Colbert County in northwestern Alabama...


* Until 815 PM CDT.


* At 749 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tuscumbia,

  moving northeast at 55 mph.


  HAZARD...60-65 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.


  SOURCE...Radar indicated.


  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.


* Locations impacted include...

  Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Killen, Cherokee,

  Lexington, St. Florian, Underwood-Petersville, and Green Hill.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3457 8781 3469 8802 3500 8783 3500 8736

TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 217DEG 47KT 3474 8783


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH


$$


70/DD

Severe Weather Statement

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

747 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


ALC033-150100-

/O.CON.KHUN.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-240315T0100Z/

Colbert AL-

747 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT

FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTY...


At 747 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of

Tuscumbia, moving northeast at 55 mph.


HAZARD...60-65 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.


SOURCE...Radar indicated.


IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.


Locations impacted include...

Tuscumbia, Cherokee, Red Rock, Posey Loop, Mynot, Mt Hester, Srygley

Church, New Bethel, Crooked Oak, and Colbert Heights.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3481 8800 3476 8786 3474 8784 3473 8782

      3473 8778 3469 8765 3457 8779 3462 8808

TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 219DEG 47KT 3471 8783


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH


$$


70/DD

Severe Weather Statement

National Weather Service Memphis TN

747 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


TNC039-071-077-109-150115-

/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-240315T0115Z/

Henderson TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-Decatur TN-

747 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT

FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...EASTERN MCNAIRY...HARDIN AND SOUTHERN

DECATUR COUNTIES...


At 746 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from near Morris Chapel to Savannah to Shiloh, moving

northeast at 55 mph.


HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.


SOURCE...Radar indicated.


IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to

         roofs, siding, and trees.


Locations impacted include...

Savannah, Pickwick Landing State Park, Adamsville, Sardis, Pickwick

Dam, Morris Chapel, Shiloh, Olive Hill, Montgomery, Crump, Michie,

Saltillo, Stantonville, Milledgeville, Bruton Branch, Acton, Pleasant

Grove, Hurley, Walkertown, and Cerro Gordo.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3539 8799 3539 8803 3537 8803 3535 8800

      3530 8802 3529 8798 3514 8798 3501 8810

      3500 8846 3512 8855 3538 8842 3537 8837

      3538 8836 3541 8835 3548 8836 3548 8801

      3546 8804 3544 8804 3543 8803 3541 8797

TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 235DEG 48KT 3535 8825 3522 8826 3511 8837


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH


$$


CAD


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