Saturday, June 8, 2024

Mostly Sunny and Seasonably Hot Week With Rain Chances Staying Low

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 90, Low 64): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 86, Low 65): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 85, Low 57): Sunny. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 60): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 67): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 92, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday  June 16 (High 89, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday June 17 (High 87, Low 73): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday June 18 (High 88, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 86, Low 77): Sunny. 

Monday (High 87, Low 78): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday/Wednesday (High 85-87, Low 75-77): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday through Saturday (Highs in mid-80's, Lows in mid-to-upper-70's): Rain likely - thunderstorms possible. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 64): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 86, Mínima 65): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 57): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 89, Mínima 67): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo 16 de Junio (Máxima 89, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Lunes 17 de Junio (Máxima 87, Mínima 73): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes 18 de Junio (Máxima 88, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 86, Mínima 77): Soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 87, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Martes/Miércoles (Máxima 85-87, Mínima 75-77): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

De Jueves a Sábado (Máximas a mediados de los 80 y mínimas a mediados y superiores de los 70): Probabilidad de lluvia; es posible que haya tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES:

Another tornado track has been found between Hodges and Russellville from the June 5 damaging wind event. Talk about a late-season surprise. But I think it is safe to say we are into the summer season now. That must have been the spring season's last gasp with that cold front that made it all the way through here. Why it is so pleasant this morning. 

And the cops are still looking for a fugitive by the name of Rodney Dale Kilgore, recently seen in Cullman County. If you see this guy, please call 911 from a safe and discreet distance, out of earshot. 

DISCUSSION:

At 8:30 AM skies are fair in Cullman, sunshine in full force. The temperature is 72 degrees. The dewpoint is 59, making the relative humidity 65%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.05 inches and rising. 

It is also sunny in Jasper. The temperature is 68 degrees. The dewpoint is 63 degrees, making the relative humidity 83%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.03 inches and rising. The Low this morning was 54. You sure don't see that every morning in June. And I just checked for Cullman, the Low was 55 this morning. No wonder the cats were looking at the windows wanting to go out. 

It is sunny and 70 degrees in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 64, making the relative humidity 64%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.05 inches and rising. 

Just by the way, I've finally figured out that my weather radio is down for the count. I'm not sure if it's just been knocked in the floor too many times now and is about 15 years old or what. For a while I thought the transmitter was having problems, but no, it is my device. It is giving that "check reception" message because it didn't get the weekly test. Those three counties are the ones it usually alerts for. 

At Fort Payne, it is fair and 67. Decatur is fair and 68. Huntsville is mostly cloudy and 68. Muscle Shoals is fair and 68. Tupelo is fair and 69. Memphis is overcast and 72. Nashville is mostly cloudy and 69. 





We've got a mesoscale convective system coming out of Arkansas this morning, but high pressure in place over the Southeast. It looks like most of the showers and thunderstorms will stay to our North as the cluster of showers and storms continues to weaken. 

And with so much sunshine and this pattern, today's High may get up to 87 or 88. I knew those model forecasts for lower 80's didn't look right a few days ago. Sometimes we rely on the models too much. Climatology usually wins here in the summer months. Though that can be hard to remember when you find three tornado tracks from an organized damaging wind event ahead of a cold front in early June.



Looks like another cold front will try to sink into the region tomorrow. It is now looking like we could see a High near 90 degrees and a Low quickly rebounding into the mid-60's here. I'm going to keep the rain chance at 40%. And we may be dealing with another MCS tomorrow afternoon or evening, but this one actually making it in here while it still has a little steam. If that happens we may see some storms that include a little hail and some strong winds, probably most of them staying under severe limits, pretty typical summer stuff. 



On Monday it looks like that frontal boundary dissipates as it moves into Alabama. 


Especially if you look at the NAM. Shows it just washing out. Which is what you'd expect this time of year. 

Model guidance is wanting to put the High in the lower 80's and Low in the mid-60's. But I'm going to override that and only forecast this front knocking our High down into the mid-80's with a Low in the mid-60's. And bring the rain chance down to 20%. 



I'll keep an open mind to Tuesday being a dry day and forecast mostly sunny skies, High only in the lower 80's, but still not going as low as guidance, like 80 . . . going more like 84 or 85. I'll keep an open mind to models wanting the Low in the upper 50's. After all, that did happen this morning. 



And with such strong high pressure centered right over us, again I'll keep an open mind for Wednesday, that the models may beat the climatology again this time and bring us a mostly sunny day with rain chances less than 20%, so not worth putting into the forecast. The High should be in the mid to upper 80's and the Low near 60. 



Then some Gulf moisture should get up this way on Thursday. These scenarios the GFS shows several days out that a lot of people interpret as being a hurricane, usually turn out to be something more like a subtropical Low, and that is what this looks like. So rain chances come back to 20%. High should be back in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. 



And it does look like by Friday this Low could bring a lot of rain to Florida, especially the Florida Bend. 


The ECMWF is on board with the heavy rain idea but doesn't show it with a clearly defined center of low pressure like the GFS. 

Around here will keep the rain chance at 20% with a High near 90, Low near 70. 



And on Saturday, might increase the rain chance to 30%, High still in upper 80's or near 90, Low near 70. 

This thing in the Gulf is not expected to become a tropical cyclone, but it will be interesting to see how much rain it produces and where that rain tracks exactly. 


Our rainfall totals for the next week should average only about a trace for many of us, a tenth to a quarter-inch for the places that do get more rain. Most of us are staying dry overall. That subtropical Low expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico may really bring some heavy rains to the Florida Bend and Peninsula though. 



Peeking at Days 8-10, Sunday through Tuesday (June 16-18), the idea is on the table for that rain mass to move inland more in our direction. But for now I'd keep the rain chances in the 30-40% bracket and Highs still in mid-to-upper-80's, Lows near 70. A lot of these wild scenarios don't pan out, especially at a super-long-range like this, and especially this time of year. You can still respect that the models might be picking up on a trend and increase the rain chances slightly in case they are. 

And my love/hate relationship with 10-Day-Outlooks continues. But trying them since it is summer again. 

P.S. As of 9:37 AM kept feeling like I was forgetting something. And it was the beach forecast for Gulf Shores. So going to add that in now. I mainly use the National Weather Service forecast for that, translate it into my own terms, and make adjustments if I think something is a little off base. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST: Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Most...